LeBron is having a historic run of bad luck — let’s find out why
Relative to other NBA players, LeBron James has enjoyed tremendous fortune throughout his 22-year career. He has won four championships for three different franchises. He has remained sufficiently healthy through more than two decades to set league records for career points and minutes. He has shared the court with a number of all-time greats, and he even lucked into landing reigning scoring champ Luka Doncic as his latest legendary co-star.
But one corner of LeBron’s game has been tremendously unlucky, even as his Los Angeles Lakers rise up the Western Conference standings.
Let’s investigate a statistical curiosity even stranger than a 40-year-old averaging 25 points, 9 assists and 8 rebounds. We’ll examine a new wrinkle in James’ profile, the remarkable reasons behind it, and the implications for the Lakers’ title chances and James’ future.
James isn’t playing through the typical degree of misfortune that hits every NBA player. This is something else entirely — a once-in-a-decade level of lousy luck hindering the greatest player of the century.
For the first time in James’ career, his team has been worse with him on the court. His minus-0.8 net rating, per Cleaning the Glass, is 9.2 points lower than when he sits, as the Lakers boast a plus-8.4 net rating without the four-time MVP. At the team level, that number would slot fourth in the league, just behind the elite contender trio of the Oklahoma City Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics.
It makes sense that James’ presence would always improve his teams. In fact, after adjusting for opponent and teammate quality, James has the best career on/off differential among all players in the 29 seasons for which we have full play-by-play data.
But this season, Los Angeles has better offensive and defensive ratings with James on the bench. And the only Lakers rotation players with a worse plus-minus are Cam Reddish and rookie Dalton Knecht — two players they were comfortable losing in the now-rescinded trade for Charlotte Hornets center Mark Williams.
Tuesday’s much-anticipated game against Dallas provided a perfect encapsulation of this pattern. The Lakers outscored the Mavericks by 13 points in 11 minutes with James on the bench, but were outscored by five points in his 37 minutes. Although James led his team with an efficient 27 points, he was the only Lakers starter with a negative plus-minus.
Perhaps these data points are evidence that James is finally slowing in his 40s. Perhaps they’re an indictment of the Lakers’ competitive status under first-year coach JJ Redick.
Or, perhaps LeBron is now the NBA’s unluckiest player.
One major source of luck in the modern NBA is 3-point percentage, which can vacillate wildly from game to game and lineup to lineup. And when James is on the court this season, the Lakers are making fewer 3s — even though James himself has one of the best 3-point marks (39.6%) in L.A.’s rotation.
With James on the court, the Lakers are making 34.4% of their 3-point attempts, which would rank 25th in the NBA. Without James, though, they’re up at 38.1%, which would rank third. This gap emerges even though the Lakers are generating better looks when James is playing — “butt-naked, wide-open” looks, in forward Dorian Finney-Smith’s telling — according to Second Spectrum tracking based on factors such as shot distance, defender location and the player shooting.
The problem is that James’ teammates have inexplicably struggled from distance when sharing the floor with him and have caught fire when he rests. Other than the now-departed Anthony Davis, every teammate who has spent at least 400 minutes with James has shot meaningfully better when James is on the bench.
Directly off James’ passes, the Lakers have made just 31.3% of their 3-point attempts, according to Second Spectrum — the worst mark among 28 players with at least 300 assist opportunities. When James passes to a 3-point shooter who’s not wide open, they’re all the way down at 23.2% — the worst mark for any player in the entire tracking era (since 2013-14) with at least 150 such passes.
In general, this is the first season in which James has ever had a negative on/off split on offense, meaning his team has scored more efficiently when he’s off the floor. But this unprecedented occurrence is because of bizarre 3-point luck, not because the Lakers actually have a better offensive process without him.
The effect is even more pronounced on the defensive end. Lakers opponents are making 37.0% of their 3-point attempts when James is on the court, which would rank 27th — but when James is on the bench, Lakers opponents are making just 32.0% of their 3s, which would be the stingiest in the league.
This difference might make some intuitive sense, because you could expect that James’ waning defensive effort in his 40s is leading to more open 3s for his opponents. But Second Spectrum tracking shows the opposite is true. The Lakers heavily contest more 3-pointers when James is on the floor (51% of opponent attempts) than when he’s off (46% of attempts).
And Lakers opponents have a worse expected 3-point percentage when James is playing.
This disparity is reminiscent of a mini-debate during the contentious 2016-17 MVP race, which underscored the unpredictability and flukiness of 3-point defense. That season, the San Antonio Spurs were much better on defense when prime Kawhi Leonard was off the court — but because of rotten 3-point luck, not any fault of Leonard’s.
James’ rotten luck has compounded because it’s occurring on both ends. According to Cleaning the Glass — which strips out garbage time and end-of-quarter heaves — the Lakers are shooting 4.2% worse from distance with James on the court, and their opponents are shooting 6.1 percentage points better. Add those two figures together, and you get a 3-point “luck score” of negative-10.3%.
To be fair, this isn’t a measure of pure luck because it involves some skill; elite offensive players, for instance, should have a positive on/off 3-point differential because they’re making shots and setting up their teammates with open looks. But that only makes James’ current predicament even more surprising.
He has never had anywhere near this sort of bad luck in any previous season.
A 3-point “luck score” of negative-10.3% is an anomaly not just for James, but for all NBA players. The last player with a worse score in at least 1,500 minutes played was all the way back in 2010, when 3-pointers were much less common than they are now. In other words, James is currently experiencing the worst 3-point luck of any player in the modern pace-and-space era.
That aberration more than accounts for his poor performance in surface-level on/off stats. The gap between the Lakers’ point differential when James is on the court (minus-32) and off the court (plus-109) is 141 points.
But based on the expected and actual 3-point percentages for both the Lakers and their opponents, we can estimate a 263-point swing against James from 3-point luck alone. The underlying numbers indicate the Lakers should have a positive scoring margin with James and a negative margin without him — as is the case with most star players throughout the league.
Once again, the Lakers’ win over Dallas on Tuesday offered evidence of this peculiar trend. With James on the court, the Lakers made just 21% of their 3-point attempts, while the Mavericks sank a scorching 40%. When James went to the bench, however, those percentages nearly flipped, to 42% for the Lakers and 25% for the Mavericks.
The gap between James’ on-court (minus-5) and off-court (plus-13) differentials against Dallas was 18 points. And based on an analysis of Second Spectrum tracking, 3-point variance in that game accounted for a 17-point on/off swing.
James’ statistical aberration results in a few takeaways, both for this season and beyond.
It suggests the Lakers should play better with him going forward, as his bad luck regresses. Indeed, the win over the Mavericks aside, his 3-point luck has already started to shift, with more equal on/off splits since Jan. 15 — during which span the Lakers are an NBA-best 15-4, with the league’s best defensive rating.
Better numbers with James on the court augur well for the Lakers’ chances in the playoffs, when starter workloads increase. It remains to be seen how Redick handles a postseason rotation, but over the past two seasons, James’ minutes per game increased from 35.4 in the regular season to 39.2 in the playoffs. The Lakers can’t afford to keep losing ground when he’s on the court if they want to advance, but better luck suggests they should win James’ minutes going forward.
The flip side of the likely positive regression in James’ minutes is a likely negative impact on the LeBron-less minutes; opponents probably won’t keep underperforming their expected shooting percentage by such a large margin when James is on the bench, especially after the departure of Davis, the Lakers’ best defender.
But now Doncic can buoy the lineups without James, hedging against any luck-based decline.
With better luck and Doncic in the fold, the Lakers profile as a legitimate contender. James should also enjoy an uptick in his on-court numbers when he plays with Doncic. In an admittedly tiny sample, the Lakers have a plus-9.4 net rating when the two stars share the court, per Cleaning the Glass, which ranks in the 88th percentile of lineups leaguewide.
Beyond the implications for the title race, James’ on/off 3-point splits will also be important to understand when considering end-of-season awards voting. For instance, the player impact metric from BBall Index — which blends box score and on/off data, and is aptly named LEBRON — would rank James as only the 26th-best player in the league this season, but the stat’s built-in “luck adjustment” bumps him all the way up to 16th.
That’s essentially the difference between making an All-NBA team and not doing so. James is already the oldest All-NBA player ever, and a bad-luck plus-minus shouldn’t stand in his way of breaking his own record this year.
James is eligible for a new contract this summer, if he declines his $52.6 million player option. A potential three-year extension would carry James through his age-43 season, which could be a concern because only two players in NBA history (Vince Carter and Robert Parish) have played double-digit games at that age.
But James hasn’t displayed any meaningful signs of slippage. Even the first negative on/off split of his career is actually a sign of historically terrible luck, not any problem with James himself.
ORLANDO, Fla. — Stephen Curry scored a season-high 56 points, making 12 3-pointers and outscoring Orlando by himself in the third quarter of another astounding performance, leading the Golden State Warriors to a 121-115 victory over the Magic on Thursday night.
Curry was 12-for-19 beyond the arc in his NBA-record 26th career game with 10 or more 3-pointers. He was 16-of-25 overall and made all 12 of his free throws in Golden State’s fifth straight victory.
Curry’s 25 shots were tied for the second-fewest in a 55-point game in NBA history, trailing only James Harden, who did it with 24 shots for the Houston Rockets in 2019, according to ESPN Research.
“I think the fans here tonight, even the Magic fans, they know they’re witnessing greatest shooter ever, and one of the greatest performers ever,” Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. “It’s not just the shots going in, it’s just the fluidity, the beauty of his movement and motion and his audacity, the shots that he’s willing to take. He’s an incredible performer and he put on quite a show tonight.”
With the Warriors trailing by 17, Curry ended the first half with a shot from well beyond half court to keep the Warriors within 66-52. He then erupted for 22 points in the third quarter as Golden State opened a five-point lead. Orlando managed 21 points in the period.
With Curry on the bench, the Warriors held the Magic scoreless for the first 3:08 of the fourth quarter, stretching their lead to 12.
Quinten Post came off the Golden State bench with 18 points and five rebounds, including 10 straight Warriors points in the second quarter. Draymond Green had 12 points and 10 rebounds.
It was the Warriors’ seventh win in eight games since acquiring Jimmy Butler in a trade on Feb. 6. Butler had five points on 1-of-7 shooting with seven assists in 32 minutes.
Curry’s career scoring high is 62 points, set on Jan. 3, 2021, against Portland. His career high for 3-pointers in a game is 13.
Paolo Banchero scored 41 points for the Magic and Franz Wagner had 27.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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ESPN
LeBron’s bad luck: A perplexing plus-minus mystery
The unluckiest spot: Look beyond the arc
Lakers 3P% This Season
Lakers 3-Point Shooters This Season
Lakers’ 3P% Rankings
Lakers Opponents’ 3P% Rankings
How Luka can help turn LeBron’s luck around — just in time for the playoffs
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| LeBron On | LeBron Off | |
|---|---|---|
| Expected 3P% | 36.2% | 35.4% |
| Actual 3P% | 34.4% | 38.1% |
| Difference | -1.8% | +2.7% |
| LeBron On |
LeBron Off |
Diff. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rui Hachimura | 37.7% | 52.0% | +14.3% |
| Max Christie* | 32.3% | 43.8% | +11.5% |
| Austin Reaves | 32.8% | 42.7% | +9.9% |
| Dalton Knecht | 32.4% | 39.4% | +7.0% |
| D’Angelo Russell* | 31.5% | 36.8% | +5.3% |
| Gabe Vincent | 31.8% | 35.6% | +3.8% |
| Anthony Davis* | 32.8% | 23.3% | -9.5% |
| * No longer on roster | |||
| LeBron on | LeBron off | |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 25th | 3rd |
| Defense | 27th | 1st |
| LeBron On | LeBron Off | |
|---|---|---|
| Expected 3P% | 35.7% | 36.1% |
| Actual 3P% | 37.0% | 32.0% |
| Difference | +1.3% | -4.1% |
ESPN deep dive shows LeBron James’ 263-point unluckiness with Lakers this season
Even at age 40, LeBron James continues to be one of the most effective stars in the NBA. However, ESPN believes his presence may be regressing the Los Angeles Lakers in an unlucky way.
ESPN writer Zach Kram wrote an analytical piece on James’ advanced numbers for the Lakers this season. One of the areas he dove into involved a 3-point luck score, which evaluates how successful teams are when taking threes in contrast to their opponents.
The Lakers are shooting 4.2% worse from distance with James on the court, and their opponents are shooting 6.1 percentage points better, according to Cleaning the Glass, which excludes garbage time and end-of-quarter heaves. Putting the two figures together results in a 3-point “luck score” of negative-10.3%.
“A 3-point “luck score” of negative-10.3% is an anomaly not just for James, but for all NBA players. The last player with a worse score in at least 1,500 minutes played all the way back in 2010, when 3-pointers were much less common than they are now. In other words, James is currently experiencing the worst 3-point luck of any player in the modern pace-and-space era,” Kram said.
“That aberration more than accounts for his poor performance in surface-level on/off stats. The gap between the Lakers’ point differential when James is on the court (minus-32) and off the court (plus-109) is 141 points.”
“But based on the expected and actual 3-point percentages for both the Lakers and their opponents, we can estimate a 263-point swing against James from 3-point luck alone. The underlying numbers indicate the Lakers should have a positive scoring margin with James, and a negative margin without him — as is the case with most star players throughout the league.”
ESPN may have the advanced numbers to show the negative impact of LeBron James’ presence on the court. But that doesn’t take away from the fact that he is still important to the Los Angeles Lakers.
This season, James is averaging 24.7 points, 8.7 assists and 7.8 rebounds per game after 52 appearances. He is shooting 52% from the field, including 39.6% from beyond the arc, as he continues to be one of the best offensive stars in the league.
Los Angeles currently has a 35-21 record on the season, holding the fifth spot in the Western Conference standings. They are 0.5 games behind the Houston Rockets and two games behind the Denver Nuggets.
The Lakers prepare for their next matchup, being at home. They host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Thursday night at 10:30 p.m. ET.
This article first appeared on NBA on ClutchPoints and was syndicated with permission.
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Anthony Edwards was in no mood for Jarred Vanderbilt’s antics during Thursday’s game. In the first quarter of Thursday’s Minnesota Timberwolves-Los Angeles Lakers game, the Minnesota star Edwards got into a shoving match with the Lakers big man Vanderbilt as the two teams were headed to a timeout. The two players were talking to each other, leading to Vanderbilt coming over and bumping Edwards. Edwards then responded with a one-handed shove to the back of Vanderbilt, and Vanderbilt retaliated with a one-handed shove of his own before the two were separated. As a result, both Edwards and Vanderbilt were hit with double technical fouls. Here is the video. Another angle showed a wider view of the incident. The Lakers were leading 33-17 at the time and ended up taking a 58-47 lead into halftime. Thus, Edwards, who finished the half with a modest 13 points, was clearly a little irritable there. The problem here for the three-time All-Star Edwards is that the technical foul was his 15th of the NBA season. He is now just one technical foul away from an automatic one-game suspension. Minnesota has underwhelmed this season and entered play on Thursday at 32-27 (tied for seventh in the West). Any game that Edwards, who has already been disciplined by the NBA multiple times this season for unrelated reasons, would have to miss due to suspension could end up being very costly for the Timberwolves in their race to make the playoffs outright and avoid the play-in tournament.
The Philadelphia Eagles have frustrated many of their opponents with the tush push, but Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh has made it clear he is not one of the people calling for the play to be banned. NFL executive vice president of football operations Troy Vincent said Monday that an unnamed team has formally proposed a rule that would ban the tush push. A report later revealed that the Green Bay Packers are the team seeking to remove the so-called “Brotherly Shove” from the NFL. Harbaugh was asked about the play and offered a very blunt replay, via Fox News — “get good at it or stop it.” “It just seems like it works every single time, but it seems like football to me. Get good at it or stop it,” Harbaugh said. “I don’t have a strong opinion on it right now and probably defer to others and see which way the vote goes. Get good at it ourselves, or get in position to stop it.” It is hardly a surprise that the Packers are the team looking to have the tush push banned. In a recent Q A on his team’s official website, Packers president Mark Murphy openly complained about the play. Murphy said there is “no skill involved” with the play. You can read his full comments. There has been talk of banning the tush push for over a year. The NFL and NFLPA had said they were planning to study the injury data related to the play to determine whether there are safety concerns. To this point, there has been no data that would support doing away with the play because of injury risk. The Eagles used the tush push multiple times during their Super Bowl run. There was one sequence of plays during the NFC Championship Game where the Washington Commanders kept jumping offsides when they knew Jalen Hurts was about to run the play. The Eagles eventually scored, but many fans learned about a stunning NFL rule in the process. Harbaugh’s old-school mentality about the tush push is right on brand for the Chargers coach. He knows that if the play truly required no skill, the Eagles would not be the only team to have perfected it. Defenses simply have to find a more efficient way to stop it.
William Nylander’s absence in overtime is a major concern, and we have an update regarding the superstar winger’s status. The Toronto Maple Leafs endured a thriller at TD Garden on Tuesday night as they overcame two separate deficits to defeat the Boston Bruins 5-4 in OT. Capped by a stunning Mitch Marner goal, Toronto is now riding a three-game winning streak. But it didn’t come without a major cost. Defenseman Chris Tanev was seen leaving the arena in a sling after exiting the game, and forward William Nylander didn’t play all of overtime and was seen clutching his wrist on the bench. It’s a double whammy of an injury situation, and while Tanev’s certainly looks more serious, the team avoided catastrophe. But we now have at least a better idea of Nylander’s status going forward as well. Head coach Craig Berube updated media after the team held an afternoon practice on Wednesday. It’s a positive sign for the Leafs, but they weren’t necessarily out of the woods just yet. A total of seven players were absent from Toronto’s optional practice on Wednesday, sparking more injury concerns given it was a “maintenance day” (a death sentence at times for Leafs players). Toronto avoids catastrophe, finally getting back to full health If Nylander needed to miss a period of time, it would have been a huge blow to Toronto’s top-six and eliminate the Leafs’ leading goal-scorer. But with his and Tanev’s injuries seemingly minor, Max Pacioretty on the mend and Calle Jarnkrok apparently close to a return, things are starting to look up for the Maple Leafs if they can just stay healthy. With the Maple Leafs headed into New York on Friday, then Pittsburgh on Sunday, it’s going to be crucial for Toronto to make a statement against New York, then get its wounded back and make quick work of the Penguins. But the Leafs also play the next night against San Jose, so rushing these guys back before then (especially if the Rangers game goes swimmingly) may be risky, and waiting that extra day could be a big factor in keeping them healthy. This season, Nylander has 33 goals and 25 assists in 58 games while averaging 19:51 TOI. Thankfully for the Maple Leafs, they’ve avoided some really bad news concerning William Nylander, as he’s been not only a bright spot for the team, but one of the only players who has been able to stay healthy.
Justin Tucker’s trials and tribulations from sexual misconduct allegations are so polar opposite that the gold standard for facts is discombobulated. In a story about Tucker’s vehement denial of the charges from 16 massage therapists, the Associated Press didn’t give credit to the outlet who broke the story and got the kicker to go on-the-record. Raven Country properly credited Outkick with a link to its story first having the news. The first story about the therapists’ allegations was published by The Baltimore Banner. The AP corrected its original story on Thursday morning, updating with credit to OutKick. “This was an oversight,” an AP spokesman told Awful Announcing. “We updated the story to note that Outkick first reported Justin Tucker’s new statement.” As the Ravens raise a skeptical eyebrow toward what management calls “serious” and “concerning” allegations against him, Tucker responded this week with a blanket denial. “I maintain I did not act inappropriately at any point before, during, or after a professional bodywork treatment session, nor have I ever been told I am unwelcome at any massage therapy provider,” Tucker said in an interview with Outkick. “These claims are simply not true.” The legendary kicker is facing charges of sexual misconduct and inappropriate behavior during sessions from 2012 to 2016 at eight spas in and around Baltimore. The NFL is investigating the claims. “The allegations are serious, concerning. The amount of allegations are serious, concerning,” Ravens’ general manager Eric DeCosta said this week at the Scouting Combine in Indianapolis. “I think we’re fortunate the league is doing an investigation. We’ll wait as patiently as we can for as much information as we can, and we’ll make a decision based on that.” In his first public response since the allegations began in January, Tucker steadfastly denies any wrongdoing. “Throughout the last four weeks, I have spent countless hours replaying every interaction I have had with bodywork professionals over the last thirteen years,” Tucker said. “I can assure whoever is reading this that I have never intended to disrespect anyone, cross any boundary, or make anyone feel uncomfortable in any way whatsoever. It devastates me to know that anyone I have worked with would not have felt respected and valued as a professional, but more importantly as a person, and to anyone who has felt otherwise, I am sorry.” Tucker’s wife, Amanda, is also publicly coming out in support of her husband. Said Amanda, “The false allegations against Justin have caused so much hurt to our family. I believe my husband, and I love and support him fully.”
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