Why Stephen Curry’s 4,000th 3 will be merely a stepping stone
Before Stephen Curry’s rise, it seemed 3,000 career 3-pointers might be out of reach.
In 2005, Reggie Miller retired as the 3-point king with 2,560 triples. Ray Allen deposed him six years later and eventually retired in 2014 with 2,973 long-range makes of his own. But as Allen was adding the final few hundred 3s to his total, Curry was busy reimagining the possibilities for NBA shooting.
And on Dec. 28, 2021 — exactly two weeks after passing Allen for No. 1 all-time — Curry ran a give-and-go with Golden State Warriors forward Nemanja Bjelica, rose from the corner and sank his 3,000th career 3.
Three seasons later, Curry is on the precipice of another previously unimaginable milestone. At 3,993 career 3s, he’s on the verge of inaugurating the 4,000 club.
“I feel like I’m living a constant dream,” Curry said last week. “It’s cool that there’s that joke that I set a new record every time I hit a 3. But I try not to think about [the different benchmarks] too much, because last time I did, I psyched myself out for like a five-game stretch.”
Now that Curry has learned his lesson about psyching himself out, he’s bound to break new ground soon. So let’s examine three key questions about Curry’s upcoming 4,000th 3-pointer:
How did he get here, how high will he keep climbing and which of the followers who have tried to copy his 3-point mastery will join him near the top of the all-time leaderboard?
Even in a league full of 3-point marksmen and pull-up threats, Curry stands alone.
Since 2012-13, when he got his ankle problems under control and first made the playoffs, he’s made 4.4 3-pointers per game — 34% more than second-place Klay Thompson’s 3.3.
It’s not just that Curry takes more 3s than anyone else. He also makes them at a ridiculous rate. Out of 198 players with at least 2,500 career 3-point attempts, Curry ranks third in accuracy (42.4%, behind Kyle Korver and Steve Nash).
Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of this new milestone is that Curry will be quicker to jump from 3,000 to 4,000 than he was from 2,000 to 3,000, despite being four years older.
0 – 1,000 3s: October 2009 – January 2015 (5 years, 3 months)
1,000 – 2,000: January 2015 – December 2017 (2 years, 11 months)
2,000 – 3,000: December 2017 – December 2021 (4 years, 0 months)
3,000 – 4,000: December 2021 – March 2025 (3 years, 3 months)
Better health has helped speed Curry along. Last season, he reached 70 games for the first time since 2016-17, and he’s on pace to do so again this season.
Increased availability would allow the 36-year-old to maintain his prodigious pace into his late 30s. Curry now has five of the top six 3-point seasons in NBA history — including last season at the age of 35. Curry has already made more 3-pointers in his 30s than Kobe Bryant and Carmelo Anthony did throughout their entire careers.
Curry is still an All-Star putting up stellar numbers, and he signed a new contract extension last summer that runs through the 2026-27 season. Ultimately, 4,000 might be a mere way station.
We can estimate how high Curry could climb using the “favorite toy” model, which Bill James originally developed for baseball stats and John Hollinger later modified for NBA usage. It estimates a player’s career total in a particular statistic, based on his recent track record, age and height (because wing-sized players tend to have longer careers than very short or tall players).
For instance, let’s look at 4,500 career 3s, which Curry should accomplish with two more good seasons. The model gives him a 96% chance to reach that milestone, which is an astonishing 51% higher than Allen’s career total.
Let’s dream higher.
Curry became the first player to reach 3,000 and now 4,000 3s. Why not 5,000? That’s tougher but eminently doable, as the model gives Curry a 39% shot to reach 5,000 career 3s. He even has a 6% chance to reach 5,533 career triples — as many as Allen and Miller combined.
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Overall, the model estimates that Curry will retire with 4,893 total 3s. But that’s only the average projected outcome, which means there’s a 50% chance he exceeds that already lofty total. After all, LeBron James is presently defying all conceivable aging curves, and Curry could fit a similar profile.
Even a lesser version of Curry spacing the floor in his 40s would be an absolute nightmare for defenses. How long could he remain on an NBA roster, checking in from the bench every night to make a few 3s, a la his coach, Steve Kerr, at the end of his own prolific 3-point career?
Earlier this season, a reporter asked Curry about Thompson’s push to pass Miller for fifth place on the career 3-point leaderboard.
“Hold on. You said fifth?” Curry interrupted, before answering with a laugh. “It’s crazy because I passed Reggie three years ago and he was second, and now he’s fifth.”
Thompson passed Miller soon after, and now James is mere games away from passing Miller, too. Within a few years, the former 3-point king will have fallen from second to seventh on the career leaderboard. And Miller’s about to fall a whole lot farther.
We can also use statistical models to project how many more active players will pass Miller and Allen, the one-time 3-point kings. (Note that all of these calculations assume the NBA doesn’t institute rule changes to stem the rise of 3s.)
Two players who have already passed Miller are at the top of this list. At the moment, Allen ranks third all-time in career 3s, behind only Curry and James Harden. But Damian Lillard (98%) and Thompson (97%) are near-locks to pass Allen in a year or two.
The next active player who should pass Miller is Paul George (97% to pass Miller, 60% to pass Allen). Despite a sour start in Philadelphia, George is only 211 made 3s behind Miller and should achieve that figure with ease.
Other veterans with a strong chance are CJ McCollum (92% Miller, 37% Allen), Kyrie Irving (51% Miller, 13% Allen) and Kevin Durant (69% Miller, only 6% Allen because he’s the oldest member of this group, with an ample injury history). They’re all good bets to scoot by Miller even though their careers started before Curry led the 3-point revolution, so they didn’t rack up as many 3s early on as the following generation of NBA stars.
That’s the next group to consider, as almost every prime-age NBA star in the modern game attempts lots and lots of 3s. Jayson Tatum (89% Miller, 85% Allen), Donovan Mitchell (89% Miller, 60% Allen) and Anthony Edwards (84% Miller, 68% Allen) lead the way. Luka Doncic (77% Miller, 45% Allen) also carries a strong 3-point projection, though he has missed enough games that he’s not a lock to pass the previous 3-point leaders. Other stars further down the list include Tyrese Haliburton (52% Miller, 32% Allen), Trae Young (51% Miller, 26% Allen) and Devin Booker (48% Miller, 22% Allen).
The young stars demonstrate how much health matters when making these calculations. For instance, Edwards and LaMelo Ball entered the NBA in the same draft class, and Ball has made slightly more 3-pointers per game (3.0) than Edwards (2.9). But because Ball has missed so many games, Edwards already has 53% more total 3s, which gives him a much rosier projection for the rest of his career.
One of the major developments in this 3-point-happy era is that superstardom isn’t required to approach the heights that Miller and Allen did once upon a time. Other high-usage guards with solid chances to surpass that duo include Jalen Green (59% Miller, 39% Allen), Tyler Herro (58% Miller, 36% Allen), Jordan Poole (58% Allen, 35% Miller), D’Angelo Russell (58% Miller, 26% Allen), Zach LaVine (47% Miller, 19% Allen) and Anfernee Simons (46% Miller, 26% Allen).
The most surprising candidates aren’t stars at all, but rather specialists in the most productive shooting era in NBA history. Buddy Hield (94% Miller, 68% Allen) has already eclipsed 2,000 career 3s and is on pace to exceed 200 for the seventh season in a row, giving him a clear path to keep climbing quickly. Malik Beasley (89% Miller, 64% Allen) ranks second in made 3s this season and is set to become the fourth player in history — along with Curry, Hield and Thompson — to make more than 1,000 3s from ages 25 to 28.
Beasley’s Detroit Pistons teammate Tim Hardaway Jr. (65% Miller, 24% Allen) is also favored to keep ascending the 3-point leaderboard, as he just reached 1,800 career 3s. And Coby White (54% Miller, 33% Allen) and Michael Porter Jr. (45% Miller, 26% Allen) have roughly 50-50 shots to catch Miller.
It’s worth emphasizing the distinction in player type here. Miller and Allen are both Hall of Famers who were named to the NBA’s 75th Anniversary Team. Meanwhile, role players like Hield, Beasley and Hardaway are favored to pass them on the career leaderboard despite never making an All-Star team, let alone being on track for the Hall of Fame.
The league’s 3-pointer inflation inspires a cross-sport analogy that helps explain what will soon happen to the NBA’s record books: Curry is to 3-pointers what Babe Ruth was to home runs.
In December 1919, when the Boston Red Sox famously sent Ruth to the New York Yankees, MLB’s career home run leader was a 19th-century slugger named Roger Connor, who hammered 138 homers en route to Cooperstown. Ruth passed him in 1921 and soon left Connor in the dust, ultimately ending his career with 714 dingers.
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Yet Ruth wasn’t alone; he’d spearheaded an entire home run movement. By December 1929, a decade later, eight players had passed Connor on the all-time leaderboard. By 1939, 32 had. And today, a little more than a century after Ruth dragged his sport out of the deadball era, Roger Connor is tied for 670th in career home runs. Most of the players ahead of him never sniffed the Hall of Fame.
The NBA’s 3-point trajectory might not get that extreme, but the pattern rhymes. As Curry observed, Miller was second on the career 3-point leaderboard just a few years ago — and statistical models project he’ll fall out of the top 25 by the time the current generation of players is done shooting.
That doesn’t mean the crowd following Curry will end up catching him, though. Ruth himself remained the home run king for more than half a century, until Hank Aaron passed him in 1974, and Curry is so extraordinary that his 3-point reign could easily last that long.
Only five other active players have at least a 20% chance to join Curry in the 4,000 3-pointer club, according to the “favorite toy” statistical model: Tatum at 31%, Harden at 28%, Edwards at 26%, Thompson at 21% and Lillard at 20%. The two youngest members of that quintet are the only players with double-digit odds to reach 4,500 career 3s — where, again, Curry is a lock — with Tatum checking in at 17% and Edwards at 15%.
Maybe some currently anonymous youngster will enter the NBA in the future, when teams are attempting 50- or 60-plus 3s per game, and will pass Curry some decades hence. But he’ll likely need to make far more than 4,000 to do so — because who knows how far Curry might keep pushing his own record?
ESPN’s Chris Herring contributed to this story.
Adam Schefter details that the Los Angeles Rams plan to release WR Cooper Kupp after the start of the new league year unless a trade materializes. (0:41)
NFL free agency has kicked off with the legal negotiation window — which began at noon ET on Monday — and players will be able to officially sign with new teams after 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday, which is the start of the new league year. There has already been plenty of action.
The Steelers traded for wideout DK Metcalf, and the Raiders addressed their quarterback situation with a move for Geno Smith. Sam Darnold agreed to a new deal to take Smith’s quarterback spot in Seattle, while Justin Fields landed a new contract with the Jets.
Edge rusher Khalil Mack, offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley, receiver Chris Godwin and linebacker Zack Baun re-signed with their respective teams. Receiver Davante Adams joined the Rams, cornerback D.J. Reed will play with the Lions, pass rusher Haason Reddick is off to Tampa Bay, edge rusher Josh Sweat is headed to the Cardinals and defensive tackle Milton Williams will shore up the Patriots’ defense. Offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil was also traded to the Commanders. Plus, a few big names have been released over the past few days, including Jags tight end Evan Engram and Chargers linebacker Joey Bosa.
We’re tracking all of the action, including signings, notable trades, cap-saving releases and more. For more on NFL free agency, follow our coverage all week.
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| RANK | PLAYER | No. 3s |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Stephen Curry* | 3,993 |
| 2. | James Harden* | 3,117 |
| 3. | Ray Allen | 2,973 |
| 4. | Damian Lillard* | 2,790 |
| 5. | Klay Thompson* | 2,662 |
| 6. | Reggie Miller | 2,560 |
| 7. | LeBron James* | 2,542 |
| 8. | Kyle Korver | 2,450 |
| 9. | Paul George* | 2,349 |
| 10. | Vince Carter | 2,290 |
| 11. | Jason Terry | 2,282 |
| 12. | Jamal Crawford | 2,221 |
| * active | ||
Warriors star Stephen Curry reaches 25,000 career points
With a tough turnaround 3-pointer, Stephen Curry becomes the 26th player in NBA history to eclipse 25,000 career points.
The Associated Press
Stephen Curry surpassed 25,000 career points at the 8:32 mark of the 3rd quarter.
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SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Stephen Curry became the 26th player in NBA history to score 25,000 career points, reaching the milestone during the third quarter of the Golden State Warriors’ 115-110 victory over the Detroit Pistons on Saturday night.
“BOOM! BOOM! BOOM!” Curry yelled while running back through the hallway to the locker room following a quick return to the court postgame.
And that was actually a tribute to teammate Draymond Green, who loves to yell “boom” after making a 3-pointer and hit the go-ahead 3 with 35 seconds left. Green secured the game ball for Curry.
Curry, who turns 37 next Friday, surpassed 25,000 with a 3-pointer at the 8:32 mark of the third quarter then received a warm ovation when recognized during a timeout with 5:42 to go.
He finished with 32 points — pushing his total to 25,017 — on 8-for-22 shooting and converted all 12 of his free throws.
His next remarkable task is becoming the first player in the league to make 4,000 3-pointers. Curry made four Saturday and needs seven more.
“It’s crazy, crazy,” coach Steve Kerr said. “It feels like 25,000 3s actually. It’s dynamite. Just night after night, and tonight was obviously not a great shooting night for him. But I loved that he played through fatigue and a physical defense and got to the line 12 times. He was brilliant on a night when his shot really wasn’t there, he was still brilliant. That’s the mark of a great player.”
Stephen Curry’s latest shooting milestone will be within reach when the Warriors host the Kings on Thursday.
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