March 4 Tracking A Severe Storm Risk Across The Deep South Today Reach Mid Atlantic Tomorrow
March 4 2025
Tuesday Morning Report
The class of seasons will be fun blown on the weather map this week. This will explode with a possible tornado outbreak later today and tonight. That energy will push our way into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast on Wednesday. The back side of the same storm will produce a blizzard across the Rockies to Northern Plains.
We need rain and some storm cells will produce close to 1 inch… Still not enough for our 10 inch deficit since last year. However, a burst in a short period of time with solid soil can run off easier and produce local flooding.
Slight Risk = Level 2 of 5. Widespread thunderstorms with a few cells that can turn severe. But NOT ALL.
Enhanced Risk = Level 3 of 5. This means a tornado outbreak is more likely.
Warmer air will flow in today for The Mid Atlantic.The storm is organizing with a line of severe storms already this morning that will get charged with daytime heating as it moves east.
The cold side will expand snow and blizzard conditions from the Central Rockies to Northern Plains.
Sunrise at 6:34 AM
Sunset at 6:03 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 31ºF
Record 5ºF in 2014
Normal High in Baltimore: 51ºF
Record 78ºF 1923
Baltimore Seasonal Snow
12.7”
DROUGHT UPDATE
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
A seasonally cold start to the day.
We may remain warm after the storm line passes…
This is a broad brush of winds, but individual severe storm cells can push 60 to 70 mph gusts.
This is subject to individual storm cells. The odds are a range of 0.50” to 1.00” rain, but as storm cells pulse along that line, there will be spots that dry below and above those marks.
The surge of cold air will be followed by a winter looking pattern.
The set up with the cold air is not seen the same way between the European and GFS Models.
The. ECMWF has been consistently showing no storm, while the GFS has been trying and then losing a coastal snow event. Like much of this winter, I believe this inconsistency in model projections has low confidence. That is why I have NOT played this up like you may have seen on other pages.
After the severe storms pass, colder winds will flow back in.
This weekend may bing showers with mix rain and snow… I remain skeptical of much more.
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Brief Recap Of The Record Snow For Virginia and the abrupt change from the longer range potential track.
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