NHL Bubble Watch: Projecting playoff hopes for all 32 teams
After taking a pause for the 4 Nations Face-Off — and continuing Canadian domination in best-on-best tournaments — the NHL regular season is now rocketing toward the Stanley Cup playoffs.
The stakes are high. Time is short. Who’s in and who’s out?
The NHL Bubble Watch is our monthly check-in on the Stanley Cup playoff races using postseason probabilities and points projections from Stathletes for all 32 teams. We also reveal which teams shouldn’t worry about any of this because they’re lottery-bound already.
As a bonus this month, we’re also including which player from the playoff contenders needs to step up the most in the stretch run.
But first, a look at the projected playoff bracket:
Note: Projected point totals via Stathletes.
Eastern Conference
M1 Washington Capitals (115.7) vs. WC2 Ottawa Senators (88.1)
M2 Carolina Hurricanes (104.1) vs. M3 New Jersey Devils (97.8)
A1 Toronto Maple Leafs (104.6) vs. WC1 Detroit Red Wings (90.7)
A2 Tampa Bay Lightning (101.2) vs. A3 Florida Panthers (100.8)
Western Conference
C1 Winnipeg Jets (113.2) vs. WC2 Calgary Flames (89.5)
C2 Dallas Stars (103.8) vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche (98.8)
P1 Vegas Golden Knights (107.6) vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild (98.1)
P2 Edmonton Oilers (105.5) vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings (97.9)
Record: 35-20-2, 72 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
The Atlantic Division race has unexpectedly tightened over the past month, but the Leafs are still favored to finish in first place over the Florida Panthers — a result that could give hockey fans both Battles of Florida and Ontario in the opening round. For all their offensive star power, the Leafs’ success is owed greatly to Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz, who have helped Toronto to the fourth-best 5-on-5 save percentage in the NHL (.926 in 57 games).
Player who must step up: Morgan Rielly. The 30-year-old defenseman had 26 points in his first 57 games, well off his points pace of the previous three seasons. Rielly has struggled with adapting to new coach Craig Berube’s system — no Toronto player has been on the ice for more goals against this season than the Leafs’ top defenseman.
Record: 34-21-3, 71 points
Playoff chances: 99.4%
The Panthers are going to experience life without star winger and spiritual leader Matthew Tkachuk for the foreseeable future because of the groin injury that kept him off the ice for Team USA in the 4 Nations Face-Off. They already had to manage without captain Aleksander Barkov for a slew of games this season.
But Florida is a resilient bunch, and one that remains firmly in a playoff position. In a fair and just world, Sam Reinhart would be getting MVP buzz for another outstanding season at both ends of the ice.
Players who must step up: Florida needs scoring from the back end. Aaron Ekblad (26 points) and Gustav Forsling (21 points) is the team’s top defense pair and its top-scoring blueliners. The offseason losses of Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson were always going to have a deleterious effect on their defensive scoring. One assumes that if the D-men behind the top pairing can’t generate more, GM Bill Zito will go shopping before the March 7 deadline for someone who can.
Record: 32-20-4, 68 points
Playoff chances: 99.5%
With 83 points in 53 games this season, it’s fairly to safe to say that Nikita Kucherov can drive a line. Through 46 games together, the line of Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point and Kucherov is averaging 3.82 goals per 60 minutes. When Kucherov has played with Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel, that line has averaged 3.86 goals per 60 minutes. Nikita Kucherov: good at hockey.
Players who must step up: The bottom six. The Lightning’s top two lines have accounted for 148 of the team’s 200 goals this season. Tampa Bay’s defense has accounted for 22 more. That means 30 goals have come from the Bolts’ other forwards, and 10 of those were from Mitchell Chaffee alone. A lack of scoring depth at forward has been something Tampa has overcome in the regular season but has been exposed in the postseason over the past few seasons. Will that trend continue?
Record: 29-22-6, 64 points
Playoff chances: 64.4%
Is the playoff drought finally over? The Red Wings last made the playoffs in 2016. Stathletes has them projected for around 90 points, which would earn them the first wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference.
GM Steve Yzerman bet big on his coaching change, and it has worked in the standings: Todd McLellan has a 16-5-2 record since taking over from Derek Lalonde, buoyed by a seven-game winning streak before the 4 Nations break.
The Red Wings aren’t dominant by any stretch — underwater in both goals for percentage and expected goals percentage under McLellan — but they’re finding ways to win.
Player who must step up: The answer would logically be Vladimir Tarasenko, but there’s a better chance of him stepping out to another NHL team before the trade deadline than stepping up in Detroit.
So we’ll go with Erik Gustafsson, whose assist against Anaheim on Sunday ended a 12-game point drought — the second 10-plus game scoreless streak the defenseman’s had this season, which is not what you want to see from a free agent ostensibly brought in for his offense.
Record: 29-24-4, 62 points
Playoff chances: 42.5%
Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: The Senators have significant absences from their lineup. Centers Josh Norris and Shane Pinto sat out time because of upper-body injuries right before the 4 Nations break, and during a recent skid in the standings. Ottawa remains in good position in the wild-card race. Hopefully, Linus Ullmark gets his skates under him quickly now that he’s back from injury.
Player who must step up: Drake Batherson. As the Senators deal with injuries, they could use more goal scoring from their 26-year-old winger. After he had a hat trick against Anaheim on Dec. 11, Batherson has scored only four goals since. He has 16 goals in 57 games after he had 28 last season.
Record: 27-24-7, 61 points
Playoff chances: 10.4%
The shot got longer for the Bruins this week with the news that defenseman Hampus Lindholm is probably done for the season. Combine that with Charlie McAvoy’s plight, which has no timeline for the defenseman’s return after his hospitalization during 4 Nations, and the Boston blue line is in rough shape.
GM Don Sweeney said he’s taking a “cautious” approach to the trade deadline — i.e. probably not looking to add. It’s unclear what that means for his own retooling. Is it possible Brad Marchand is no longer a Bruin after March 7?
Player who must step up: Jeremy Swayman. Every time the Bruins goalie looks as if he’s going to turn the corner, he falls off the curb. He has given up at least three goals in 10 of his past 13 starts, in a season that has seen him play at a below-replacement level. Now he has to try to turn things around in back of a diminished defense corps. This is not the way one wants to begin an eight-year, $66 million contract extension.
Record: 26-26-5, 57 points
Playoff chances: 8.9%
The Habs had a 43.4% chance of making the playoffs in the last NHL Bubble Watch, which illustrates both how wild a ride the Eastern Conference postseason race has been and the fragility of Montreal’s status as a contender.
The Canadiens have lost eight of their past 10 games. They’re hanging tough with better teams, but the lottery beckons.
Record: 23-27-5, 51 points
Playoff chances: 0.8%
Feb. 22 marked the 14-year anniversary of owner Terry Pegula’s introductory news conference in which he declared, “Starting today, the Buffalo Sabres’ reason for existence will be to win a Stanley Cup.”
They made the playoffs in 2011 and were eliminated in the first round. They haven’t made the playoffs since, and that drought will extend to 14 seasons after this disappointing season.
Record: 38-11-8, 84 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Do the Capitals get enough respect as a Stanley Cup contender? They’re near the top of the league in points percentage as well as both goals for and against per game. They’re in the top 10 in power play and on the penalty kill.
They have eight players with 38 or more points, ranging from an all-time great chasing a legendary record (Alex Ovechkin) to the comeback player of the year (Pierre-Luc Dubois) to a 24-year-old having a breakout season (Aliaksei Protas). They’re for real.
Player who must step up: Andrew Mangiapane. The Capitals acquired him from the Flames to bolster their offense, which it turns out was bolstered enough. He has 11 goals and nine assists this season, with three points in his past 14 games. It’s assumed top prospect Ryan Leonard will join the Capitals after his season with Boston College comes to an end. Will it be at the expense of Mangiapane’s spot in the lineup?
Record: 33-20-4, 70 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
The Hurricanes are doing what they do: leading the NHL in percentage of shot attempts, expected goals percentage and second in shot suppression at 5-on-5. Yet they’ve given up the 12th-most goals at 5-on-5 in the NHL this season, even if they’ve scored the eighth-most goals at 5-on-5.
Some of that can be chalked up to inconsistent goaltending, although perhaps the return of Frederik Andersen can stabilize that.
Player who must step up: Mikko Rantanen. There’s a burgeoning cottage industry of insiders speculating that the Hurricanes could turn around and trade their blockbuster acquisition from earlier this season. Perhaps because they’ve realized they can’t extend the pending unrestricted free agent. Perhaps because the fit turned out not to be right. He has three points in seven games with 22 shots on goal.
To say he needs time to adjust would be an understatement — to a new home, a new team and in particular a new system. Assuming he remains a Hurricane, they need him to be a difference-maker now and especially in the postseason.
Record: 32-21-6, 70 points
Playoff chances: 97.9%
The Devils were almost slotted down in the “work to do” category considering how underwhelming they’ve been for the past two months: 8-10-3 since Dec. 28.
Download the ESPN app and enable Emily Kaplan’s news alerts to receive push notifications for the latest updates first. Opt in by tapping the alerts bell in the top right corner. For more information, click here.
But they’ve kept their collective heads above water despite injuries to captain Nico Hischier and star goalie Jacob Markstrom in that stretch. They’re still searching for the kind of consistency they had when they won 10 of 13 games late in 2024 and have all the talent to do so.
Player who must step up: Simon Nemec. The No. 2 overall pick in 2022, Nemec was frustrated with being down in the AHL earlier this season, hinting that a trade request could happen is his situation didn’t change. But Nemec hasn’t played well enough to break into the Devils’ top six, with one assist in 12 games.
His pairing with Luke Hughes was recently called out by coach Sheldon Keefe, but it was Nemec’s ice time that was cut — and then he was scratched in their win Sunday. He’s still so young at 21, but is the clock ticking on his tenure with the team?
Record: 28-25-4, 60 points
Playoff chances: 32.9%
There are nights when you can squint hard enough and see the Rangers as a wild-card team this season.
But there are many more nights when the Rangers look like a team in serious need of a retool and an attitude infusion, and whose approach to the trade deadline should be to continue the export business that started with the trade of captain Jacob Trouba. Because even if they make the postseason, this incarnation of the team does not look like a Stanley Cup contender.
Player who must step up: Igor Shesterkin. The star goalie’s overall numbers are above average: .903 save percentage and 5.4 goals saved above expected behind a Rangers team that doesn’t impress at 5-on-5. But after agreeing to an eight-year, $92 million contract extension, Shesterkin has been wildly inconsistent. He has given up four or more goals in four of his past seven games.
Record: 25-24-7, 57 points
Playoff chances: 24.0%
The Islanders won 11 out of 14 games after the calendar flipped, which in turned flipped their season from a meander toward the lottery to hope for a playoff berth. Their 24% chance of making the postseason isn’t all that encouraging, but it might be enough for GM Lou Lamoriello to try to bolster this group rather than dismantle it — although someone might bowl him over with an offer for Brock Nelson or Jean-Gabriel Pageau.
Players who must step up: The penalty kill. The good news for the Islanders is that they finally have some company for the NHL’s worst penalty kill, as the Red Wings have dipped under 70% recently. Injuries have played a role here — such as Adam Pelech being limited to 36 games — but so has ineffective play from usually dependable PK players such as Scott Mayfield and Pageau.
Record: 27-22-8, 62 points
Playoff chances: 5.0%
The projections tell a different story than the standings. Stathletes has the Jackets with a 5% chance of making the playoffs, up from 1.7% in the last Bubble Watch. Money Puck has the Jackets at a 13.6% chance of making the playoffs, which is actually down from 16.2% last month. Stathletes projects Columbus to finish with 81.6 points, ahead of only the Penguins in the Metro Division and the Penguins and Sabres in the conference.
Some of this might be a symptom of having the top three spots in the Metro basically spoken for. But Columbus remains right at the wild-card bubble, fueled by a dominant season from defenseman Zach Werenski and the growth of players such as Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli.
The odds aren’t in their favor, but the Jackets have overcome them — and so much more — to be in the position they’re in this season.
Player who must step up: Boone Jenner. The Jackets captain sat out the first 56 games of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery in October. Pardon the pun, but what a boon for this lineup: Jenner, 31, has scored 22 goals or more in each of the past three seasons and brings some veteran savvy to the team’s 5-on-5 play.
Columbus put him with Cole Sillinger and Johnson to start. He’s an important player for their playoff push and one who’s thrilled to be back for it.
Record: 25-26-7, 57 points
Playoff chances: 12.1%
The Flyers lost eight of nine games before the 4 Nations break to fall back from the wild-card bubble. Last month, they had over a 42% chance of making the playoffs.
Still, the Flyers have some glimmers of hope for another run at the playoffs, such as Matvei Michkov’s chemistry with Sean Couturier. Their newly formed line with Owen Tippett has been dominant in the short term.
Player who must step up: Ivan Fedotov. Samuel Ersson can’t do this alone, although he has started 10 of the past 13 games for the Flyers. Fedotov has been a major disappointment this season (4-8-3, .877 save percentage), including minus-7.3 goals saved above expected. He hasn’t won in eight straight appearances, although good showings against the Leafs and Blue Jackets ended in overtime and a shootout, respectively.
They don’t need Fedotov to steal 15 games before the playoffs. They just need the kind of competence that, on most nights, he’s not giving them (.250 quality starts percentage).
Record: 23-27-9, 55 points
Playoff chances: 2.5%
The Stanley Cup playoffs are a better place with Sidney Crosby in them, but the math is no longer mathing for the Penguins. Stathletes gives them a less than 3% chance of making the postseason and projects just 80.8 points for Pittsburgh — which would be its lowest point total in an 82-game season since Crosby was a rookie.
Money Puck is even more cynical, giving the Penguins an 0.8% chance of making the playoffs, ahead of only Nashville, Chicago and San Jose. Kyle Dubas, let the trade deadline discussions begin.
Record: 41-14-3, 85 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Connor Hellebuyck’s MVP-level season in goal has fortified the Jets as the league’s best defensive team this season. Their offense, fueled by a power play that has remained north of 30% all season, ranks in the top three thanks to Gabriel Vilardi, Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor amassing nearly 30 power-play goals combined on their own.
The Jets would be the first ones to tell you that none of this means anything if they’re eliminated in five games in the first round for a third straight season. But that doesn’t change how incredible their regular-season success has been.
Player who must step up: Josh Morrissey. Don’t get it twisted: Morrissey has had a very strong season for the Jets, from orchestrating their power play to being their ice-time leader overall. But on a team with so many Jets flying higher than ever, Morrissey’s even-strength output is just a tick below where it has been for the past two seasons.
Record: 37-18-2, 76 points
Playoff chances: 99.7%
It must be frustrating for the Stars to have this kind of regular season — through 57 games, they had the third best points percentage in the NHL — only to look up and see the Jets firmly planted on the ladder above them, never missing a rung.
Dallas is a top-five team both offensively and defensively this season, cruising along despite losing Tyler Seguin for the regular season because of hip surgery, having Mason Marchment limited to 39 games and now having top defenseman Miro Heiskanen month-to-month after knee surgery.
Player who must step up: Thomas Harley. The 23-year-old scrapped his vacation plans to join Team Canada in the 4 Nations Face-Off as an injury replacement, then was outstanding in the tournament. Though the Stars probably liked having their young defenseman in such a pressure-packed learning environment, they also might have been fine with him getting a rest.
Harley will be counted upon to power his own defensive duo now that his primary partner, Heiskanen, is on the shelf. With 30 points in 55 games, skating a career high 22:46 per game, he has shown himself more than capable.
Record: 34-19-4, 72 points
Playoff chances: 95.8%
Winning six of their last eight games, the Wild continue to keep pace with the Stars in the Central Division.
They already managed life without MVP Kirill Kaprizov once this season, and it looks as if they’ll have to do it again: The star forward returned for three games after sitting out a month but then left the lineup for surgery on a lower-body injury. GM Bill Guerin indicated that the absence will be longer than previously expected.
Player who must step up: Joel Eriksson Ek. It has been a rough ride for the Wild center this season. He was on injured reserve until the end of 2024. He hasn’t been himself offensively, as his per 60 minutes averages are way off his recent marks; or defensively, as the annual Selke Trophy contender has been a party to one of the league’s worst penalty kills this season — his 36.1% short-handed faceoff winning percentage hasn’t helped.
Michael Russo of The Athletic reported Tuesday that Eriksson Ek was injured in practice on Monday and will be placed on IR. Russo expects Eriksson Ek will be out beyond the next four games, which would be the minimum time he’d need to spend on IR.
Record: 33-24-2, 68 points
Playoff chances: 94.4%
In the aftermath of the Mikko Rantanen trade, the Avalanche went 5-5-0 but watched Martin Necas tally nine points in 10 games as his replacement from the Carolina Hurricanes.
Colorado is still searching for consistency — it hasn’t won more than two games in a row since the calendar flipped — but the Avs will get healthier and be better.
Player who must step up: Mackenzie Blackwood. Acquired from the San Jose Sharks in mid-December, Blackwood fit in so seamlessly that the Avalanche awarded him with a contract extension after just a handful of games. He was one of the best goalies in the NHL after arriving in Colorado, going 12 straight games without giving up more than two goals against. But in the 11 games after that, he gave up three or more goals in seven of them.
Blackwood has continued to play well, with 12.5 goals saved above expected, but can he find that unbeatable form again?
Record: 25-24-9, 59 points
Playoff chances: 22.5%
For all the losses the Utah Hockey Club has taken in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office this season — Utah Yeti, we hardly knew ye — they’re finally picking up some wins on the ice.
Utah has won four of six games to creep back into the playoff race, including a huge win over the Canucks on Sunday in regulation.
They got key defensemen John Marino and Sean Durzi back from long-term injured reserve this week. Clayton Keller (63 points), Dylan Guenther (21 goals) and Logan Cooley (44 points in 51 games) continue to excel offensively. Karel Vejmelka (9.03 goals saved above expected) remains one of the season’s best goaltending stories.
Player who must step up: Durzi. The 26-year-old has been out since October after shoulder surgery, and will give Utah a major boost down the stretch with his return. Durzi can help solidify a second pairing behind Marino and Mikhail Sergachev on the top pair. Incredibly, Saturday was the first time all three of GM Bill Armstrong’s big blue-line offseason additions were in the lineup together.
Durzi can also help on a power play that’s sitting just outside the top 10. Utah is getting reinforcements at the right time.
Record: 26-26-6, 58 points
Playoff chances: 13.4%
Money Puck has the Blues with an 11.1% chance of making the postseason, despite being within five points of sputtering Vancouver. That’s probably not enough of a percentage chance to prevent GM Doug Armstrong from dealing away at the trade deadline, with players such as captain Brayden Schenn potentially on the block.
Could that also include the Blues trading goalie Jordan Binnington at the height of his hype after the 4 Nations Face-Off? Naturally, there has been some speculation to that end.
Player who must step up: Pavel Buchnevich. Let’s pretend for a moment that a team that hasn’t won three games in a row at any point this season suddenly mounts a serious challenge for the last wild-card spot. They could use a strong finish from Buchnevich. The 29-year-old, whose six-year contract kicks in next season, has been off his mark on offense all season. But he has heated up recently, with seven points in six games, playing on a line with Robert Thomas and Jake Neighbours.
Record: 20-29-7, 47 points
Playoff chances: 0.5%
For a while, the analytics indicated the Predators actually had a chance of making the Western Conference playoffs despite the smoldering mess of their season. Last Bubble Watch had Nashville with a 38% chance of making the cut, although Money Puck was the minority report on that claim, giving the Preds a 5.3% chance of making it.
Now, both sites are aligned: Nashville stinks, with both giving them a less than 1% chance of rallying for a playoff spot. Unless, by some miracle, there’s a 16-0-2 run in this group as there was in last season’s Preds.
Record: 17-33-7, 41 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%
Chicago has been a special kind of bad in calendar 2025, winning only five times in 19 games. Seth Jones has politely asked the Blackhawks if he can get off this ride soon, which could make for an interesting trade deadline in Chicago.
After that, it’s just daily tabulation of lottery odds until the balls enter the machine.
Record: 34-18-6, 74 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Stathletes has the Knights projected for 107.6 points entering Monday night, slightly ahead of the Oilers’ (105.5) points pace. (It’s here that we’ll request Kings fans look away from the horror that is another first-round meeting with Connor McDavid, which this projection portends.)
Vegas is a solid defensive team with a terrific power play, and Jack Eichel (69 points in 56 games) in pure MVP mode.
Player who must step up: William Karlsson. He has struggled this season through injuries and ineffectiveness. One of the last remaining original Knights, Karlsson has seven goals in 38 games after scoring 30 in 70 games last season. No one expected him to shoot 17% again, but he’s better than this output.
Coach Bruce Cassidy said Karlsson is skating again, but there’s not a definitive return date for him. The hope is that when he comes back, his offense will too.
Record: 34-19-4, 72 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
To put the contributions of Leon Draisaitl and McDavid into perspective: They have combined for 158 points together this season through the Oilers’ 57th game. That’s nearly what Edmonton’s next five highest scorers have tallied combined.
Their 20 power-play goals are, in fact, more than the rest of the roster combined (16). The Connor and Leon Show — or is it Leon and Connor Show? — is the reason the Oilers are a lock to make the cut.
Player who must step up: Evan Bouchard. The easy answer here would be Stuart Skinner, who will need to solidify his hold on the Oilers’ goaltending job and hope the team doesn’t make a deadline move for a netminder.
But the more difficult conversation surrounds Bouchard, the team’s most gifted offensive defenseman who has battled puck management issues this season on top of his defensive liabilities. He has 44 points in 57 games after tallying 82 points in 81 games in 2023-24.
Record: 31-17-7, 69 points
Playoff chances: 94.7%
The Kings jump from around a 72% chance to making the playoffs in the last Bubble Watch to 94.7% this month.
They don’t score much (19th in goals per game) but remain a top-five defensive team, thanks in part to Darcy Kuemper’s outstanding goaltending (9.1 goals saved above expected) in a bounce-back season that’s every bit as unexpected as the one for the player the Capitals acquired for him (Pierre-Luc Dubois).
Player who must step up: Trevor Moore. The 29-year-old forward had a breakout season with 31 goals and 26 assists last season for the Kings, shooting 12.7%. He still hustles and has versatility at the forward spot, but his offense has completely fallen off this season with eight goals and 15 assists in 45 games — do his two goals on Monday signal a turnaround?
Record: 27-21-8, 62 points
Playoff chances: 41.5%
Stathletes projects the Flames will finish one point ahead of the Vancouver Canucks based on their trajectories entering Monday, and hence has given them a better chance at making the playoff cut. Money Puck disagrees, giving the Canucks a 51.5% chance of a postseason berth to Calgary’s 29.7%.
Of note, rookie goalie Dustin Wolf continues to crush it, with a 20-11-3 record and a .913 save percentage.
Player who must step up: Joel Farabee. Now that the shock of his trade from the Flyers has subsided, the Flames forward needs to get back to the 20-goal pace that he showed he could hit in Philly. The 24-year-old has one goal in six games for Calgary.
Record: 26-20-11, 63 points
Playoff chances: 31.7%
Well, no one can accuse the Canucks of being dull.
Get exclusive access to thousands of premium articles a year from top writers.
• NHL Bubble Watch: Pre-trade deadline »
• Kiper’s pre-combine mock draft: No. 1? »
• Premier League teams chasing CL spots »
More ESPN+ content »
The J.T. Miller trade sought to end the NHL’s most notable feud between teammates, freeing Elias Pettersson to recapture his game … which he hasn’t. Starting goalie Thatcher Demko can’t stay healthy, while his backup Kevin Lankinen was just handed a five-year contract extension. And don’t even get us started on the “Quinn Hughes is coming” 4 Nations Face-Off hullabaloo. That all happened against the backdrop of a Canucks team that has done anything but cement the final wild-card spot in the West.
Player who must step up: Pettersson. Could it be anyone else? Miller was traded on Jan. 31. Pettersson has three assists and zero goals through eight games since, and that’s not even mentioning his disappearing act at the 4 Nations tournament. Pettersson has get his game going if Vancouver is going to make the playoffs.
As coach Rick Tocchet said of Pettersson after the Canucks’ loss to Utah over the weekend: “He’s not moving his feet. I thought today, some shifts he was moving his feet and it looked like we had some glimpses. But 6-on-5 there at the end, it’s the same thing, waiting. If he just takes three or four strides. … I don’t know if it’s a mental block right now, all year, but he’s got to move his feet.”
Record: 25-24-7, 57 points
Playoff chances: 2.4%
The Ducks’ goaltending has been its greatest asset this season, sixth in the NHL with a .906 save percentage in all situations.
Their faint playoff hopes could be materially impacted if that tandem changes at the trade deadline: Will Monday’s acquisition of Ville Husso from the Detroit Red Wings lead to a John Gibson trade? He has had a strong season and his $6.4 million AAV over the next two seasons of his contract are much more manageable under a rising cap.
Player who must step up: Leo Carlsson. With six points in five games, the big Ducks center is heating up. That’s good news after a rather quiet January, which featured a stretch of one goal in 12 games. Incidentally, the Ducks are 4-0 in games in which Carlson had multiple points.
Record: 25-30-4, 54 points
Playoff chances: 0.3%
This is not the trajectory the Kraken want to be on, having seen their points percentage decline in consecutive seasons after their playoff breakthrough. Changes have to be on the way, starting at the upcoming trade deadline.
Record: 15-37-7, 37 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%
The NHL’s most “fun bad” team has a real gem in Macklin Celebrini, the league’s top rookie in points per game with 0.89 through 45 games. Will that be enough to earn him the Calder Trophy?
Michael Wilbon and Tony Kornheiser reflect on Diana Taurasi’s career after she announced her retirement from basketball. (2:04)
Diana Taurasi, the leading scorer in WNBA history and voted “greatest of all time” by the league’s fans, announced her retirement Tuesday after 20 seasons.
“Mentally and physically, I’m just full,” Taurasi told Time magazine. “That’s probably the best way I can describe it. I’m full and I’m happy.”
Taurasi, 42, steps away as one of the most decorated players in basketball history. She made an impact from her first moments at UConn in 2000, and she was still in the spotlight through the end of her WNBA career, helping lead the Phoenix Mercury to the playoffs this past season.
In August, Taurasi became the first basketball player to win six Olympic gold medals.
WNBA commissioner Cathy Engelbert hailed Taurasi as “one of the greatest competitors to ever play the game of basketball on any stage.”
“In a record-setting career that saw her play 20 seasons, score more points and make more three-point shots than any player in WNBA history, she has earned the unquestioned respect of players around the globe, delivered electrifying moments and captivated fans again and again,” Engelbert said in a prepared statement. “On behalf of the WNBA family, I thank Diana for everything that she has brought to the WNBA — her passion, her charisma and, most of all, her relentless dedication to the game.”
Taurasi scored 10,646 points — the only WNBA player to surpass the 10K mark in scoring — in 565 regular-season games, and she scored another 1,476 points in 72 playoff contests. She led Phoenix, which drafted her No. 1 in 2004, to WNBA championships in 2007, 2009 and 2014.
A five-time WNBA scoring champion and 14-time All-WNBA selection, Taurasi was league MVP in 2009 and Finals MVP in 2009 and 2014. She also leaves as the WNBA’s leader in 3-pointers made with 1,447 in the regular season and 215 in the playoffs.
Josh Bartelstein, the chief executive officer of the Mercury and Phoenix Suns, called Taurasi “the face of the Mercury and women’s basketball for 20 years.”
“She revolutionized the game with her scoring ability, infectious personality and the edge she brought to the court every night,” Bartelstein said. “There will only ever be one Diana Taurasi, and she will continue to inspire us for years to come and remain part of the fabric of this city.”
Despite the personal records and achievements, Taurasi was considered the consummate teammate throughout her career.
“I’ve always tried to be on everyone’s side, and tried to champion everyone on the team,” Taurasi said. “If they’re in your circle, you take care of them.”
Sue Bird, Taurasi’s longtime friend and UConn/USA Basketball teammate, said to ESPN: “She has a way of making people feel connected to her, but also like the best version of themselves.”
WNBA
– 3-time champion
– 2004 Rookie of the Year
– 2009 WNBA MVP
– 2-time Finals MVP
– 5-time scoring champion
– 11-time All-Star
– 10-time All-WNBA 1st-team selection
USA National Team
– 6-time Olympic gold medalist (2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024)
College: UConn (2001-04)
– 3-time national champion (2002, 2003, 2004)
New York Liberty coach Sandy Brondello, who guided the Mercury for eight years, said Taurasi had what seemed like a sixth sense in dealing with teammates.
“She knows when she needs to take over; she knows when to get others involved,” Brondello said. “She knows when she just needs to whisper in their ear to get them going. When you see it up close and personal, you realize just the effect she has on her teammates, and they all look up to her.”
Taurasi first rose to national prominence at UConn two decades ago, leading the Huskies to three consecutive national titles from 2002 to 2004, including an undefeated season that many consider the greatest in women’s college hoops history.
In a prepared statement Tuesday, Huskies coach Geno Auriemma said that Taurasi “had as much to do with changing women’s basketball as anyone who’s ever played the game.”
“In my opinion, what the greats have in common is, they transcend the sport and become synonymous with the sport,” Auriemma said. “For as long as people talk about college basketball, WNBA basketball, Olympic basketball: Diana is the greatest winner in the history of basketball, period. I’ve had the pleasure of being around her for a lot of those moments, and she’s the greatest teammate I’ve ever coached. I’m happy for her and her family. At the same time, I’m sad that I’ll never get to see her play again, but I saw more than most.”
UConn went 22-1 in NCAA tournament games in Taurasi’s career, and she finished her collegiate career with 2,156 points, 628 rebounds and 648 assists. After being selected No. 1 by the Mercury, she won the first of her Olympic medals in 2004.
Her first WNBA championship with Phoenix came three years later.
After leading Phoenix to its second title, Taurasi was arrested for driving under the influence in July 2009. Shortly afterward, while she was playing overseas in Turkey, Taurasi received a provisional ban in late 2010 for alleged use of the stimulant modafinil, but the lab conducting the test was discredited, and Taurasi was cleared of all allegations in February 2011.
Taurasi and Bird became the cornerstones of USA Basketball for two decades. Along with her Olympic haul, Taurasi has three golds from the FIBA Women’s World Cup and won six EuroLeague titles.
“There never seems to be a bad day when you’re around Dee,” said Carol Callan, longtime USA Basketball women’s national team director. “She doesn’t seek the limelight, and she’s totally comfortable in her skin not needing it.”
Taurasi was voted by fans as the WNBA’s “GOAT” during the league’s 25th season in 2021.
“To me, she’s the greatest player,” said Las Vegas Aces coach Becky Hammon, who played and coached against Taurasi. “She just hooped. I think one of the most underrated parts of her game was her passing. Her 3-ball and pull-up jumpers got so much attention, but she literally does everything.
“It’s like when you talk about LeBron James. … Some people would knock on him when he would pass the ball, but it was the right decision. Great players, the GOATs, just make the right play. And they make it over and over and over again, and it leads to winning.”
NBA
NCAAM
ESPN
Projected playoff bracket
ATLANTIC DIVISION
The locks
Toronto Maple Leafs
Florida Panthers
Tampa Bay Lightning
Work to do
Detroit Red Wings
EDITOR’S PICKS
NHL trade deadline preview for all 32 teams: Players, picks in play, what teams should do
12hRyan Clark and Kristen Shilton
Who are the locks, maybes and rising stars for Team USA at the 2026 Olympics?
4dGreg Wyshynski
NHL trade grades: Report cards for J.T. Miller to Rangers, Granlund to Stars, more
14dRyan S. Clark, Greg Wyshynski
Ottawa Senators
Long shots at best
Boston Bruins
Lottery-bound
Montreal Canadiens
Buffalo Sabres
METROPOLITAN DIVISION
The locks
Washington Capitals
Carolina Hurricanes
New Jersey Devils
Breaking News from Emily Kaplan
Work to do
New York Rangers
New York Islanders
Columbus Blue Jackets
Long shots at best
Philadelphia Flyers
Lottery-bound
Pittsburgh Penguins
CENTRAL DIVISION
The locks
Winnipeg Jets
Dallas Stars
Minnesota Wild
Colorado Avalanche
Work to do
Utah Hockey Club
EDITOR’S PICKS
NHL trade deadline preview for all 32 teams: Players, picks in play, what teams should do
12hRyan Clark and Kristen Shilton
Who are the locks, maybes and rising stars for Team USA at the 2026 Olympics?
4dGreg Wyshynski
NHL trade grades: Report cards for J.T. Miller to Rangers, Granlund to Stars, more
14dRyan S. Clark, Greg Wyshynski
St. Louis Blues
Lottery-bound
Nashville Predators
Chicago Blackhawks
PACIFIC DIVISION
The locks
Vegas Golden Knights
Edmonton Oilers
Los Angeles Kings
Work to do
Calgary Flames
Vancouver Canucks
Top stories of the week from
Long shots at best
Anaheim Ducks
Lottery-bound
Seattle Kraken
San Jose Sharks
EDITOR’S PICKS
Goodbye to the GOAT: The best stories of Diana Taurasi’s legendary career
52mMichael Voepel, +2 More
Diana Taurasi basketball honors: WNBA, Olympics, UConn
4hJoe DeAndrea
Taurasi’s Career Accolades
Sizing Up The Competition
Break is over, back to the race
With the Four Nations Face-Off over, it’s back to the grind of the regular season for the Ottawa Senators. They are getting back to it not just in a playoff hunt, but sitting in the first wild card spot for the first time in what feels like years.
But the field is packed. There are just seven points between Ottawa in that first Wild Card spot and Philadelphia at second last in the Conference, and worse – many of those teams have a game in hand on Ottawa. The only team in the East that is really out of it at this point is the Buffalo Sabres, though Pittsburgh and Philly aren’t too likely to catch Ottawa specifically at this point.
With that tight race in mind, let’s take a trip around the Conference to look at the competition.
4 points up, 1 game in hand, 1 head to head
The only team ahead of Ottawa coming out of the break that the Sens stand a decent chance of catching. “Decent chance” might be stretching things a bit though, as they’re definitely the strongest opponent on the list.
Their dip out of the divisional playoff spot came mostly off the back of a scoring cold streak that seems to have come to an end before the break, scoring 20 goals in the four games in the last week of play. Other than that they have pretty much been the team most people probably expected them to be this season and they’re more likely to move up in the standings than down.
1 point back, 1 game in hand, 2 head to head
While the Wings sits a point behind Ottawa in the second wild card spot, the game in hand puts them very slightly ahead by point%.
They’re a tough team to get a read on right now. They’ve been on a solid heater since Todd McLellan took over behind the bench, achieving a genuinely silly 15-5-1 record under him – which happens to be the best point% any coach has this season.
But how they’ve gotten there is all over the place. Right after McLellan took over they had a bit of a new coach bounce and their power play was red hot, scoring 17 goals in the first 10 games after the switch (on just 9.3 expected power play goals).
The power play has flipped since then with just six goals (on 9.6 expected) in the last 11 games, and the 5-on-5 scoring has been dropping as well. Overall, their shooting percentage in the last 11 games is about half of what it was in the first 10 games under McLellan.
But when the opposition goalies closed the door, so did Detroit’s goalies. Their goaltending was under-performing during that first stretch, but flipped it when the scoring started to decline and allowed almost a goal per game less than when the scoring was hot… at least until the last two games where Talbot and Lyon combined for 9 goals against (on 5.1 expected).
So what are they? They’ve had a “score at will” stretch and a “shut the door” stretch, with a few games scattered in when they were both and when they were neither. Will the break derail their hot streak, or will it let them reset after a pair of messy games? I can’t see them continuing at the pace they’ve had under McLellan, but who knows how little or how much they’ll fall from it.
2 points back, even in games, 3 head to head
Columbus is definitely my pick for the surprise of the season in the Eastern Conference. I definitely wouldn’t have put them anywhere near the playoff bubble this season but they’re just a single point back of the last spot.
How? They have the third highest shooting percentage at 5 on 5, and have consistently been outperforming their expected goals – which they need, because their expected goal % is the seventh worst in the league. The goaltending has also been excellent in the past month, but was under-performing for most of the season before that.
They did hit a rough patch before the break, going 4-5-1 in their last 10 games and the “process” metrics falling off a cliff (41% corsi, 42% expected goals, 43% shots), though it only led to them dropping from being on the inside by one point to being on the outside by one point.
2 points back, 1 game more, 1 head to head
The Bruins had been struggling to stay in a divisional spot through most of the season, and things went south for them coming out of the Christmas break where they were badly outplayed and earned a 3-6-1 record.
Funny enough their play started to turn around after that wild 6-5 loss to the Sens (which also finally pushed them out of a playoff spot for the first time in forever), but the points haven’t really followed and they’ve spent the past month bobbing in and back out of a playoff spot.
They didn’t exactly roar into the break, dropping their last two, and now Charlie McAvoy is out until at least early March with an injury sustained against Finland. This could be the season where the mighty B’s finally fall, but I wouldn’t count them out this early.
4 points back, 1 game in hand, 1 head to head
This season has been a wild ride for the Rangers. Back in mid November, they were firmly in the mix for one of the Metro divisional spots, and then they self-destructed. On November 19th they had a point% of 0.735, which had dropped to 0.458 by the end of December and they looked completely out of it in early January.
A stretch of solid play later, and a bit of luck, and they climbed back on to the bubble with a 10-game stretch without a regulation loss. They’ve started to dip again, oddly mostly after adding JT Miller who has played well for them so far. Not quite as bad as they were through December, but their season might not be at the end of the roller coaster just yet.
5 points back, 1 game in hand, 0 head to head
The Islanders seem to just be hanging around. They’re playing a little above .500 hockey, with the results mostly matching the process. That’s enough to keep them on the bubble for now, but they’ll need to step things up to seriously threaten for a playoff spot.
Which they did do with a 7-3-0 record in their last 10 games before the break, though they seemingly did it by ignoring defense and letting the goalies pick up the slack. It mostly worked too, with the team adding about half a goal for per game and allowing about half a goal less. But with the three losses coming in the last four games before the 4 Nations and accounting for 16 goals against, things might be coming back down to earth.
7 points back, even in games, 3 head to head
Montreal almost got cut from this list, but those three remaining head to head games keep them on it. A regulation by the Sens tonight and you could probably count them out.
They played themselves into the playoff race with a hot streak that started before Christmas, and it was looking like that streak was built on genuine improvements in play… then they turned back into a pumpkin around the middle of January, and have been dismal since then.
With the three head to head games left they could climb back into it, but it feels like they are more likely to play spoiler than be a threat to actually catch Ottawa for a playoff spot.
Not everyone can afford to pay for sports coverage right now, and that is why we will keep as much of the site’s content free for as long as we can.
But if you are able to, please consider subscribing to help keep our articles free (and get a few extra perks).
