The stock market plunge shows Trump’s disruption can’t be contained
Donald Trump never told voters there might be a recession on the road to his new “golden age.”
The president’s refusal – twice – to rule out an economic contraction this year set off a stock market plunge on Monday that hammered Americans’ retirement accounts.
But the 9% loses on the S&P in less than a month reflect a wider force unleashed by the president in his new term – global instability and uncertainty about what he’ll do next and what the world will look when he’s done.
Trump is trying to shatter everything that everyone thought they knew about US foreign aid, trade and economic policy. He’s set off trade wars with US neighbors, indiscriminately fired thousands of government workers, and switched to punishing the victim in Ukraine — fracturing an 80-year bond of trust with allies.
And, as he told the nation a week ago, “We’re just getting started.”
So it wouldn’t be surprising if there’s a price to be paid.
Trump’s voters love his instinct for disruption and volatility. But with consumer confidence softening, hiring slowing and fears of a recession growing, the last thing the economy needs is a president whipping up uncertainty.
But in a Fox News interview on Sunday, Trump lacked his usual bombast when asked whether the strong economy he inherited from former President Joe Biden would tip into recession this year. “I hate to predict things like that,” he said, and compounded the damage later on Air Force One by saying, “Who knows?”
It was less what Trump said but how a president known for unshakeable certainty said it.
Trump’s apparent acknowledgement on Fox News that his policies, including tariffs, could cause a period of “transition” for the economy was also disturbing – since it appeared to indicate that short-term pain is in the offing and that he is prepared for a country weary of high prices for groceries and housing to endure it.
Predictions that the resilient US economy is about to crash have been wrong for years.
Other than during Covid-19, the last major contraction was in the 2008-09 Great Recession. And the Federal Reserve is upbeat, despite some indicators in recent weeks flashing the possibility of a slowdown. A few bad weeks for a market that many analysts consider overvalued and due for a correction need not presage a wider economic disaster.
But Trump, by trying to change so much, is still playing with fire. His administration so far is showing great skill in tearing things down, but less facility in explaining how his chaos will translate to swift prosperity.
One example is Trump’s harsh turn against Canada and Mexico and his threat for 25% tariffs that he imposed last week – then froze for a month – as well as reciprocal tariffs that will catch other US friends in his dragnet in early April.
“What we’re seeing in the policy approach is a lack of vision,” Julia Coronado, president and founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC, told Richard Quest on CNN International. “We all knew that there was a vision on narrowing trade deficits, reshoring some activity. … We’re really going after our closest friends, both on a foreign policy level as well as a trade level, and that feels like more of a profound change, without the clear vision of what we’re trying to achieve.”
White House officials on Monday dismissed the panic on markets and the idea that an economic contraction is looming. They also argued that any core weakness in growth is not due to Trump’s whiplash leadership but a hangover from the Biden administration.
“I think that what’s going to happen is the first quarter is going to squeak into the positive category, and then the second quarter is going to take off as everybody sees the reality of the tax cuts,” Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said on CNBC.
Trump has not had time to fully enact his economic policies yet – or to demonstrate his claims that they will make Americans far wealthier and send the economy soaring. But relying on the stimulative potential of tax cuts to generate growth doesn’t say much about the underlying strength of the economy. And Hassett set an ambitious timetable for pushing a complex tax-cutting bill through Congress, given the tiny GOP majority in the House of Representatives.
There was more happy talk about tariffs unleashing rocketing prosperity by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “There’s going to be no recession in America,” Lutnick said.
Such rosy assessments seem rather familiar and risk falling into a dangerous political trap that snared the Biden administration – that of telling voters the economy is in better shape than they perceive it to be. Repeated claims by top Biden aides that the worst inflation since the 1980s early in his term was merely “transitory” eroded public trust in his presidency and played a significant role in paving the way for Trump’s return to the Oval Office.
It was also notable Monday that the president did not appear publicly for a new round of economic commentary as the stock market, one of his favorite scorecards of his own performance, tanked.
Growing concerns about the economy and the impact of Trump’s shock-and-awe policies pose several questions about his next moves.
Trump’s presidency is only six weeks old – and if the economy steadies and markets respond, Monday’s panic will be seen as a momentary blip.
But there’s a foreboding sense that a serious moment is approaching.
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who correctly called the inflationary spike that marred Biden’s presidency, struck an ominous note Monday as he signed off after an interview with CNN’s Kasie Hunt.
“Good luck to you and your viewers in this challenging time,” he said.
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Stocks tumble on recession fears, Trump tariff uncertainty
UBS managing director and senior portfolio manager Jason Katz discusses whether the U.S. economy is on the brink of a recession on ‘Varney & Co.’
U.S. stocks tumbled on Monday, with concerns about the effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on economic growth spooking investors.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 890.01 points, or 2.08%, while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 slid 4% and 2.69%, respectively. The Dow and the S&P 500 saw their worst day since Dec. 18; the tech-heavy Nasdaq had its worst day since September 2022.
Trump on Sunday declined to explicitly rule out a full-blown recession for the U.S. economy this year, telling Maria Bartiromo in a “Sunday Morning Futures” exclusive interview that the country will see a “period of transition” as his policies take effect.
TRUMP SAYS US WILL EXPERIENCE ‘PERIOD OF TRANSITION’ WHEN ASKED IF ECONOMY COULD SEE A RECESSION THIS YEAR
President Donald Trump speaks with members of the media on the South Lawn before boarding Marine One at the White House in Washington, D.C. on Feb. 28. (Reuters/Nathan Howard / Reuters)
“I hate to predict things like that,” he said of a recession. “There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing… it takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”
TRUMP PRAISES ‘REAL PATRIOT’ ELON MUSK FOR ‘OPENING A LOT OF EYES’ WITH DOGE
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Financial markets have been volatile in recent weeks as rising trade tensions and signs of slowing U.S. economic growth weighed on consumer confidence and business activity. Investors are grappling with a barrage of new policies from the new Trump administration, particularly in trade where back and forth on tariff policy has increased uncertainty for businesses, consumers and investors.
“The U.S. market sell-off is starting to look ugly,” said Dan Coatsworth, an investment analyst at AJ Bell. “Many people have been worried about elevated valuations among U.S. equities for some time and looking for the catalyst for a market correction. A combination of concerns about a trade war, geopolitical tensions and an uncertain economic outlook could be that catalyst.”
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Richly valued U.S. tech stocks have borne the brunt of the recent selloff on Wall Street.
“The narrative changes on a daily basis around tariffs – that’s what causing all this uncertainty,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth. “The damage around markets that has everything to do with sentiment is reflected more in the Nasdaq, because technology stocks are certainly more influenced by risk sentiment.”
FOX Business’ Taylor Penley and Reuters contributed to this report.
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| Ticker | Security | Last | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I:DJI | DOW JONES AVERAGES | 41911.71 | -890.01 | -2.08% |
| SP500 | S&P 500 | 5614.56 | -155.64 | -2.70% |
| I:COMP | NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX | 17468.32141 | -727.90 | -4.00% |
US stocks plunged on Monday as investors processed growing concerns about the health of the US economy after President Trump and his top economic officials acknowledged the possibility of a potential rough patch.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell nearly 900 points, or over 2%, while the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped around 2.7% after the index posted its worst week since September.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 4% in its worst day since 2022, as the “Magnificent Seven” stocks led the sell-off. Tesla’s (TSLA) rout continued, plunging 15% and officially wiping out the gains it had made in the wake of Trump’s election win. Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Google parent Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META) all each lost more than 4%.
All three major indexes built on losses of more than 2% last week as the Nasdaq plummeted deeper into correction territory.
March’s market struggles continue to be fueled by worries over the health of the US economy. Those concerns have become wrapped up in Trump’s ongoing trade salvo, as tariff negotiations between the US, Mexico, and Canada dominate the headlines. In a Sunday interview on Fox News, Trump addressed concerns about a potential recession, describing the economy as undergoing “a period of transition.”
Read more: The latest on Trump’s tariff plans
The political uncertainty is expected to persist into this week, with key economic data adding to the mix of potential market-moving factors. Updates on the inflationary picture will be in focus, with the February Consumer Price Index scheduled for release on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index set to follow on Thursday.
The Nasdaq (^IXIC) dropped 4% on Monday as investors headed for the exits over fears of a US slowdown.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell more than 880 points after dropping as much as 1,100 during the session. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell nearly 2.7% following the index’s worst week since September.
Tesla’s (TSLA) rout persisted, tumbling 15% and officially wiping out the gains it had made in the wake of Trump’s election win.
AI chip giant Nvidia (NVDA), iPhone maker Apple (AAPL), Google parent company Alphabet (GOOG), and social media giant Meta (META) all declined as much as 5% before closing off the session lows.
Yahoo Finance’s David Hollerith reports:
The price of bitcoin (BTC-USD) continues falling despite efforts by President Donald Trump to give the crypto world more of what it wants, including a strategic bitcoin reserve that the administration touted at the end of last week while hosting crypto executives at the White House.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency fell below $78,000 on Monday, hitting its lowest level since the days following Trump’s election victory last November. It is now down 28% from its all-time high above $109,000 reached the day of Trump’s inauguration in January.
Other digital assets beyond bitcoin also fell Monday, including ethereum (ETH) and XRP (XRP). Coinbase (COIN), a cryptocurrency exchange, was down 18% in Monday afternoon trading.
Read more here.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) tumbled almost 5% in the last hour of trading on Monday while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) plummeted 3%, on pace for its worst day since September 2022.
Tech led the sell-off as worries over a slowdown in the US economy mount.
All of the ‘Magnificent Sevem’ growth stocks dropped to session lows in afternoon trading.
Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi reports:
Not every sector is getting pummeled by the Trump tariff rout that is currently enveloping the broader markets.
Consumer staples — companies that sell soda to those offering healthcare services and energy — continue to attract their fair share of inflows as traders seek out businesses less tied to economic cyclicality. Case in point is in Monday’s highly volatile trading session.
Shares of Coca-Cola (KO) are up 2% on the session, while rival PepsiCo (PEP) is up 3%. Procter & Gamble (PG) shares are up 1.2%. The iShares US Healthcare ETF (IYH) is up slightly, powered by gains in top holdings Merck (MRK) and Amgen (AMGN).
The IYH has tacked on 1.2% in March. The three aforementioned stocks have all notched gains so far in March, compared to a 3.1% drop for the S&P 500.
Read more here.
Tech stocks accelerated their losses on Monday afternoon with the S&P 500 Tech sector (XLK) falling more than 4%.
The “Magnificent Seven” stocks led the declines, with shares of EV maker Tesla (TSLA) falling more than 13% in afternoon trading.
Investors sought refuge in Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), and Consumer Staples (XLP).
Stocks touched session lows on Monday afternoon as the sell-off on Wall Street intensified.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) tumbled as much as 4% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) plummeted 2.5%.he Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) sank 1.5%.
Tesla stock (TSLA) tumbled nearly 14% while AI chip giant Nvidia (NVDA) also declined 5%. Meanwhile, Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META) dropped.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) prices hovered below $80,000 per token on Monday as a broader market sell-off intensified on Wall Street, overshadowing last week’s positive developments for the industry.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency failed to hold a meaningful leg higher after a strategic reserve announcement, followed by Friday’s White House crypto summit.
Bitcoin is down more than 4% over the past 24 hours as investors became risk-off over concerns of an economic slowdown.
Economists are growing more concerned about the path forward for the US economy as President Trump’s tariff policies become reality.
In a research note on Monday, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius slashed his team’s 2025 GDP forecast to 1.7% from 2.4% while boosting their projection for the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge to end the year at 3%, up from a prior call in the mid 2% range. Hatzius noted these updates mark the first time in about two and a half years that his team has projected GDP growth below Bloomberg consensus data (which currently calls for above 2% growth).
“The reason for the downgrade is that our trade policy assumptions have become considerably more adverse,” Hatzius wrote.
Hatzius’s team now sees the average US tariff rate rising by 10 percentage points this year, twice their previous forecast and five times the level seen during Trump’s first administration. Tariffs weigh on the overall economic outlook through several levers, Hatzius said.
First, the new duties are expected to push up consumer prices and, therefore, cut real income for consumers. Second, they usually come alongside tighter financial conditions. And third, the uncertainty surrounding the tariff implementation will likely prompt businesses to “delay investment.”
Hatzius believes the combination of slower growth and sticky inflation can still leave room for the Federal Reserve to cut twice this year in June and December. But for now, Trump’s policy uncertainty likely keeps the central bank holding rates steady.
“Our near-term view is that the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] will want to stay on the sidelines and make as little news as possible until the policy outlook has become clearer,” Hatzius said.
Yahoo Finance’s Ben Werschkul reports:
A mystifying recent ritual of American politics is set to commence again this week as lawmakers play chicken with a government shutdown that could begin Friday night if gridlock wins out.
It’s perhaps even more bewildering for markets and pretty much everyone else given the Republicans’ unified control of government at the moment.
But, nevertheless, the odds appear to be rising.
“I put the probability at something like 35%,” Doug Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum, said in a recent episode of Yahoo Finance’s Capitol Gains podcast. “If you’d gone back a month, I’d put it at zero.”
Read more here.
Tesla stock (TSLA) tumbled more than 9% on Monday to its lowest level since the day before the presidential election as tech stocks led a market-wide sell-off.
The EV giant hovered near $237 per share, erasing all of its post-election gains.
The “Magnificent Seven” stocks led a broader market sell-off on Monday as the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell roughly 3% by mid-morning
AI chip giant Nvidia (NVDA) declined, along with Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META).
Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi reports:
For consumer products giant Newell Brands (NWL), the business of making Sharpie pens, Graco baby car seats, and Rubbermaid food storage supplies will likely be costlier as Trump tariffs take effect.
Its CEO would tell the president that very story if they met.
“I would tell him that I think tariffs play an important role. I’m not against tariffs. I think tariffs are better applied selectively for strategic categories than universally, [that] is my personal point of view. I think there are critical industries that are important to rebuild in the US, and I think there are other industries that may be less important to rebuild in the US,” Newell Brands CEO Chris Peterson said on Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid podcast.
Read more here.
Mortgage giant Rocket Companies (RKT) announced Monday it struck a deal to purchase digital real estate brokerage Redfin (RDFN) in an all-stock deal valued at $1.75 billion.
Redfin stock rose as much as 76% on the news. Rocket stock fell as much as 10%.
According to a statement announcing the deal, Redfin shareholders will receive just less than 0.8 shares of Rocket stock for each share of Redfin owned. Current Rocket shareholders will own about 95% of the combined company.
Rocket shareholders will receive a special cash dividend of $0.80 per share. The deal values Redfin at $12.50 per share.
The companies said the combined company should be able to cut about $140 million of operations and other costs by 2027 and realize an additional $60 million in savings from pairing Redfin agents with Rocket’s financing infrastructure.
The deal was approved by the boards of both companies and is expected to close in the second or third quarter of 2025.
Upon the agreement, Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman will continue to run Redfin’s business, reporting to Rocket Companies’ CEO Varun Krishna.
Selling on Wall Street resumed on Monday following the worst week for the S&P 500 since September as Wall Street continues to price in a potential economic impact from the Trump administration’s evolving tariff policy.
The “Magnificent Seven” stocks led the sell-off as the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell roughly 2% after slipping into correction territory last Thursday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) tumbled 1.5% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) also sank nearly 1%.
Shares of Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META) were all down more than 2% in early trading.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson joined the group of strategists sounding the economic risk alarm over President Trump’s tariff policies.
Wilson forecast the S&P 500 could drop as much as 5% in the first half of the year due to the impact of levies and less fiscal spending.
US stock futures accelerated losses 30 minutes before the opening bell as economic concerns mounted ahead of Wednesday’s inflation report.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) fell 1.1%, while futures attached to the benchmark S&P 500 (ES=F) dropped 1.4%. Futures tied to the Nasdaq (NQ=F) plummeted 1.6%.
Stocks continued a rough start to March after the Nasdaq Composite entered correction territory last week while the S&P 500 logged its worst week since September.
Crypto also saw losses in premarket trading, as President Trump’s crypto reserve announcement last week did little to ease sentiment. Bitcoin dropped nearly 2% to trade around the $83,000 level.
Shares of Tesla (TSLA) also dropped 3.8% and Nvidia (NVDA) lost 2.7%, weighing on markets. Reddit (RDDT) stock extended heavy losses, down about 4.7%.
Ford stock (F) fell over 1% in premarket trading after the automaker announced a 4.4 billion euro ($4.76 billion) investment into its struggling German business.
Reuters reports:
Its Ford-Werke German arm will continue strategic transformation initiatives, focusing on reducing costs and increasing competitiveness, Ford said after the Financial Times first reported the news.
“By recapitalising our German operations, we are supporting the transformation of our business in Europe and strengthening our ability to compete with a fresh product portfolio,” said John Lawler, vice chair of Ford Motor Company.
“To build a sustainable business in Europe, we also need to continue to simplify our governance, reduce costs and drive efficiencies.”
Read more here.
From Bloomberg:
Treasuries rallied as President Donald Trump’s comments on “a period of transition” for the US economy added to concern that a slowdown could be just around the corner.
Benchmark 10-year yields slipped as much as 6 basis points after his remarks Sunday, which followed a volatile week for markets as investors fretted about the impact of tariffs and federal job cuts on growth. Those bonds now yield 4.25%, while the two-year security — which is most sensitive to the outlook for interest rates — pay 3.95%
When asked whether he’s expecting a recession this year, Trump said, “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big.” And on Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent talked about “a detox period” as the US moves away from public spending.
That’s damping investors’ faith that the US will change course on its policy if markets tumble, an assumption that had previously helped calm jitters.
Read more here.
US stocks could fall an additional 5%, driven by concerns over tariffs impacting corporate earnings and reduced fiscal spending, warns Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson.
Bloomberg news reports:
The strategist — among the popular bearish voices on equities until mid-2024 — said he expects the S&P 500 (^GSPC) to hit a low of about 5,500 points in the first half of the year, before recovering to 6,500 by end-2025.
His year-end target implies a rally of 13% from current levels, although “the path is likely to be volatile as the market continues to contemplate these growth risks, which could get worse before they get better,” Wilson wrote in a note.
The strategist warned the benchmark could sink 20% in the likelihood of a recession. “We are not there, but things can change quickly and so it’s useful to know the downside in the bear case to manage one’s risk,” Wilson said.
Read more here.
Economic data: New York Fed one-year inflation expectations (February)
Earnings: Asana (ASAN), Oracle (ORCL), Vail Resorts (MTN)
Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed over the weekend and early this morning:
Inflation takes center stage amid tariff fears
The new Trump era brings legal chaos for Capital One
Mark Carney wins Canada Liberal contest, will succeed Trudeau
‘Chaos creates opportunities’: Wall Street sees dip as buying chance
Tesla’s stock soared for years. Has Musk’s EV bubble burst?
Mark Carney: Canada’s tariffs to stay until US shows ‘respect’
Nomura: Low risk of S&P 500 crash as investors cut exposure
Morgan Stanley: S&P 500 at risk of 5% drop due to growth concerns
Gold (GC=F) remained strong following a week of gains as market jitters caused by global economic uncertainty led to haven demand.
Bloomberg reports:
Spot bullion steadied near $2,912 an ounce, after gaining almost 2% last week. In the US, President Donald Trump said the economy faced “a period of transition” as he pressed on with his focus on tariffs and federal job cuts. In China, data pointed to persistent deflationary pressures.
The precious metal has surged in the opening quarter of 2025, hitting successive records and gaining every week apart from one. The rally has been driven by investor anxiety about the disruption caused by the Trump administration’s trade policies, signs of sustained central-bank buying, and speculation the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates further.
Read more here.
Oil prices dropped as disappointing economic data from China highlighted a bleak demand outlook, while broader markets reflected a reticence to take on risk.
Bloomberg reports:
Brent (BZ=F) traded near $70 a barrel after touching the lowest since 2021 last week, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) was below $67. China’s consumer inflation fell more than expected and was below zero for the first time in 13 months, highlighting persistent deflationary pressures in the biggest crude importer.
In the US, President Donald Trump told Fox News the economy faced a “period of transition” after his actions on tariffs, while avoiding making calls for a recession. On Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the rise in uncertainty, but said officials didn’t need to rush to cut rates.
Crude has been hit by a confluence of bearish factors, including the escalating global trade war, plans by OPEC and allies to increase production, and talks to end the three-year war in Ukraine. That’s spurred speculators to cut net-bullish bets on global benchmark Brent by the most since July.
Read more here.
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