Indian Wells Betting Preview: Clara Tauson vs. Mirra Andreeva
In this Dubai final rematch, is the smart money on the 17-year-old?
Published Mar 09, 2025
On Sunday, March 9, 17-year-old sensation Mirra Andreeva will take on Clara Tauson at Indian Wells. This is a rematch of last week’s Dubai final, which Andreeva won her first career 1000-level title. That 7-6 (1), 6-1 match was somewhat interesting, as Tauson was clearly running on fumes late in the opening set. That then spilled over and made for an uncompetitive second set. I don’t see fatigue or poor health getting in Tauson’s way this time around. However, I do like Andreeva to cover the game spread.
I’m not sure I see Andreeva winning this match in straight sets, as Tauson is a highly talented player. However, these conditions should really favor Andreeva, and I’d be surprised if we don’t see at least one lopsided set. That should be enough for Andreeva to cover a pretty small, 3.5-game number.
Tauson relies so much on her big serve and her ability to crunch winners while standing with somewhat flat feet. However, the slow, gritty courts at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden require some mobility and variety. Andreeva should have an easier time than normal returning Tauson’s serves and tracking down some of her heavy groundstrokes. Once she does that and eventually resets points, things are going to favor her quite a bit. Tauson wants to win points in the 0-4 shot range, but Andreeva is going to actively look to extend rallies, and should have success doing so.
Andreeva, 17, faces Tauson, 21, in a battle between two junior No. 1s of the past who are looking more like the WTA’s future every week.
© 2025 Robert Prange
Of course, Andreeva is also going to need to find ways to hit through slow conditions herself. Given what we’ve seen in the past few months, it’s hard to worry too much about that. Andreeva has always had the ability to go big from the backhand wing, but she’s more consistent than ever from the forehand side. I don’t really have any doubts about her ability to find winners, especially with more time to set her feet and let it rip.
I feel similarly about her ability to rack up holds. Her first-service points won percentage is up from 64.2% in 2024 to 68.0% in 2025, and she has a career-high hold percentage of 73.7% this year. She’s getting through her service games with less problems, which isn’t surprising given the improvements on the forehand side. She has clearly packed on some muscle and added a little power.
All in all, it’s hard not to like Andreeva to come through with a win here, and 3.5 games isn’t a lot to cover if she does.
Pick: Andreeva -3.5 Games (-110)
The Aussie’s returning ability should be a thorn Hurkacz’s side.
Published Mar 10, 2025
Hubert Hurkacz defeated Alex de Minaur the last time they played, 6-3, 6-4, but that was all the way back in 2019. Fast-forward to 2025, and this feels like a nightmare of a match-up for the Pole, and that’s especially true when talking about playing at Indian Wells. The conditions at the BNP Paribas Open favor returners quite a bit, and de Minaur is one of the best on the planet. I’m thinking the Australian should be able to cover a 2.5-game spread in the desert.
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Hurkacz possesses one of the biggest serves on the ATP Tour, and his ability to bomb the ball and rack up easy holds is the reason he has been as high as No. 6 in the rankings. However, these courts really slow the ball down upon bouncing, so Hurkacz’s serve will be neutralized a bit. We saw that in his match against Hugo Gaston: the Frenchman wasn’t able to break through and take advantage of it, but he consistently put Hurkacz under pressure. Well, de Minaur has the second-highest break percentage in the men’s game over the last 52 weeks. He gets his racquet on everything, so he should be able to come away with a key break or two here.
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De Minaur has also done a lot of work to improve his own service game, and we’re seeing that pay off in a big way in 2025. His hold percentage is a career-high 86.3% since the start of the new season. This isn’t a match-up in which Hurkacz will be able to get breaks back once they’re gone.
De Minaur also happens to have an impenetrable baseline game. He’s one of the best players in the world when it comes to defending the baseline and counter-punching—which will also give Hurkacz fits. The Pole might have a big serve, but he lacks a big game from the back of the court. He’s going to struggle to hit through de Minaur, and he’s the more likely of the two to break down in longer rallies.
Realistically, there are courts in which Hurkacz can probably hang with de Minaur. In much quicker conditions, Hurkacz is tough to beat for anyone. But this tournament really does a number on the strongest part of Hurkacz’s game, and it’s only going to strengthen a big part of de Minaur’s. Let’s just root for a quick two-setter, with one of those sets being decided before a tiebreaker.
Pick: de Minaur -2.5 Games (-125)
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OPEN UP: A PLAYER PORTRAIT—MIRRA ANDREEVA
THREE YEARS LATER, TAUSON IS SHOWING WHY THE HYPE WAS REAL
BNP Paribas Open
Greg Garber
INDIAN WELLS — Three years ago, just a few months past her 19th birthday, Clara Tauson had risen to No. 33 in the PIF WTA Rankings and was seemingly poised to become a star.
And then, almost inexplicably, over the next 10 months, she won only three WTA Tour-level matches. Playing minor events in Luxembourg, Andorra and France at the end, her ranking slipped to No. 140.
“I was very young coming up and, yeah, maybe it happened to fast for my body and my mind,” Tauson told wtatennis.com Friday at the BNP Paribas Open. “Of course it’s been really difficult. I’ve been struggling with injuries and getting wins has been hard.
“But when you see a glimpse of the game you used to play, I think that gives you hope.”
And that hope has lifted the 22-year-old from Denmark to a career-high ranking of No. 22.
After three years of heartache and frustration, she’s where she fully expected to be. Last year, Tauson lost in the second round of qualifying at Indian Wells. On Sunday, she plays No. 9 seed Mirra Andreeva in a savory third-round match featuring two of the brightest young players on the Hologic WTA Tour.
The 17-year-old Andreeva defeated Tauson two weeks ago in the Dubai WTA 1000 final. And for those who might doubt Tauson’s chances, consider this: After losing to World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka in the third round of the Australian Open, Tauson came back a month later to thump her 6-3, 6-2 in Dubai’s Round of 16.
Tauson’s wrenching 7-6 (3), 7-5 second-round victory over Camila Osorio was her 16th match-win of the year. For the record, no woman has more. And while Tauson doesn’t pay much attention to those things, the Danish press has made her quite aware of her emerging position in the game.
When the season began, and she was ranked No. 50, could she possibly have imagined that scenario?
“No,” Tauson said, “definitely not. My last year didn’t go as I hoped. Going from qualies to being seeded here is quite a different feeling. I’m going to just try to keep going this way. Hopefully my body is going to stay like this.”
And that is the only real question that hovers over this resurgence.
She was a hard-hitting junior phenom, winning nine ITF singles titles, including the 2019 Australian Open. Later that year, she became the first Dane to reach No. 1 in the junior rankings. Even Caroline Wozniacki — a future No. 1 on the senior circuit — didn’t achieve that.
But with the physical stress of an increasingly demanding schedule, Tauson’s sturdy 6-foot body began to betray her. Knee and back injuries set her back. Rehabilitation, not playing tennis, became more the norm. Tauson reluctantly learned lessons on the values of patience and persistence.
“Those three years have given me a lot of perspective,” she said. “I know it can go downhill any second so I have to enjoy it while I can. I know it’s not easy. We see a lot of players going up and down. If I can be healthy, that’s my main goal.
“I’m a little bit more grown up and my brain also. Of course you have some self-doubt always, so it’s nice to have people who are lifting you up always. That’s one of the things that’s helped me the past couple of months.”
And while her prospects — and outlook — have shifted dramatically, one thing that isn’t going away are the comparisons to Wozniacki. Denmark has a population of 5.8 million, more people than the state of Colorado and Wisconsin, but fewer than Minnesota.
“Caroline, she’s a great champion but we play very different games,” Tauson said. “It’s just when you’re a small tennis country and it’s very few who make it, you are going to have the comparisons. She showed there was a way, but it was a different time. I’m very proud of the things I’ve done in my career and hopefully I can keep going.
“Maybe one day a kid will come up and be compared to me.”
Tauson’s emergence began with the title in Auckland. It didn’t seem like a big deal at the time, but she beat Madison Keys in the quarterfinals — handing the Australian Open champion her only loss of the season. Instructively, Tauson leads all women with 581 winners this season, 72 more than second-place Keys.
“I’ve worked hard for this, so I’m very happy the way I started the season,” Tauson said.
“Yeah, I can’t complain.”
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WTA Indian Wells Day 3 Predictions Including Mirra Andreeva Vs Varvara Gracheva
Second-round action at the WTA BNP Paribas Open features a long list of popcorn matchups. One of those pits the feisty Yulia Putintseva against the wily Katerina Siniakova. Elsewhere, 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva continues her Top 10 charge in her first match since lifting the last WTA 1000 in the Middle East. Who will reach the next round in Indian Wells? We have predictions for every match.
Head-to-head: first meeting
Marta Kostyuk’s improvement in 2024 was noticeable. She rose as high as No. 16 in the rankings. But back-to-back defeats at the start of the new season and in her two most recent tournaments saw a sharp decline in her ranking. Kostyuk now sits at No. 24 ahead of her fifth appearance in Indian Wells. She has also lost her spot as the top-ranked Ukrainian to Elina Svitolina. Robin Montgomery was out of action for precisely two months but quickly shook off the rust in her opener against Jule Niemeier. She rallied from 3-6 2-5 down to complete a thrilling three-set win. While Montgomery rode her luck a few times in that match, she won’t have that luxury here.
Prediction: Kostyuk in 2
Head-to-head: Putinseva 1-1 Siniakova
Yulia Putintseva was one of the top performers last season but she was made to wait until January this year to touch the world’s Top 20 for the first time. However, her performances in the Middle East were unspectacular (only one win from three tournaments). Katerina Siniakova is one the smartest tacticians on the court which explains why she continues to balance the singles and doubles disciplines so well. Neither player is particularly predictable though and that only adds to the intrigue. Putintseva is a momentum player and a lack of wins in recent weeks could cost her.
Prediction: Siniakova in 3
Head-to-head: Azarenka 2-0 Zheng
With two months of the season gone, Qinwen Zheng’s only win so far was in the first round of the Australian Open. As she starts the first leg of the Sunshine Swing, Zheng remains in danger of dropping outside the Top 10. It’s possible that she is now feeling the ill effects of playing in a packed schedule last year. The total of 70 matches in 2024 is the most Zheng has played in a single season. Victoria Azarenka is certainly approaching the decline phase in her career, but her grit and determination can be enough to take down the WTA’s best during their off days. And right now, it feels like Zheng could be overpowered by the veteran.
Prediction: Azarenka in 3
Head-to-head: Andreeva 1-0 Gracheva
Andreeva’s Top 10 breakthrough after winning the most recent WTA 1000 in Dubai didn’t last long. But she doesn’t defend any points this swing and should easily reclaim her spot in the elite group. Still only 17, Indian Wells is one of the few places she has yet to stamp her authority. She lost in the opening round last year. Gracheva is off the mark after defeating Petra Kvitova in three sets. The Frenchwoman is a steady competitor but plays with little margin for error. That will hurt her in extended rallies. Andreeva is on fire right now and her baseline consistency will overwhelm Gracheva.
Prediction: Andreeva in 2
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