Warriors vs. Mavericks odds, score prediction, start time: 2025 NBA picks, Feb. 12 best bets by proven model
Teams battling for position in the Western Conference playoff race meet when the Golden State Warriors battle the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday. Golden State is coming off a 125-111 win over Milwaukee on Monday, while Dallas dropped a 129-128 overtime decision to Sacramento that same night. The Warriors (27-26), who are 17-18 against conference foes, are 12-13 on the road. The Mavs (28-26), who are 20-18 against the West, are 15-11 on their home court. Dallas will be without at least five players, including new acquisition Anthony Davis (adductor), as well as fellow big men Daniel Gafford (knee) and Dereck Lively II (ankle).
Tipoff from American Airlines Center in Dallas is set for 9:30 p.m. ET. The teams have split two previous meetings this season, both of which came on Golden State’s home court. The Warriors are 6.5-point favorites in the latest Warriors vs. Mavericks odds from SportsLine consensus, after the line opened with the Warriors favored by 3.5 points. The over/under for total points scored is 233.5. Golden State is at -271 on the money line (risk $271 to win $100), while Dallas is at +220 (risk $100 to win $220). Before making any Mavericks vs. Warriors picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 17 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 147-104 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It’s also an outstanding 18-9 (67%) on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Mavericks and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Mavs vs. Warriors:
Golden State is led by point guard Stephen Curry. He has scored 30 or more points in each of the last four games, including a 38-point, six-rebound and four-assist effort in the win over the Bucks. He poured in 37 points with seven rebounds and four assists in a 120-112 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday. In 44 games, all starts, Curry is averaging 23.3 points, 6.1 assists, 4.5 rebounds and one assist in 32.1 minutes.
Small forward Jimmy Butler has been on a roll since being acquired from Miami. He nearly had a double-double in the win at Milwaukee, scoring 20 points, grabbing nine rebounds and dishing out six assists. He had 25 points and four assists in a 132-111 win over the Chicago Bulls on Saturday. In 27 games, all starts, this season, Butler is averaging 17.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.2 steals in 30.6 minutes. See which team to pick here.
Point guard Kyrie Irving powers the Dallas offense, and is coming off a near-triple-double performance in the loss to Sacramento. In 44 minutes of action, he poured in 30 points, while grabbing nine rebounds and dishing out seven assists. He had 34 points, nine rebounds and four assists in a 118-116 loss at Philadelphia on Feb. 4. In 43 games, all starts, he is averaging 24.2 points, 4.9 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 1.3 steals in 36.5 minutes.
Shooting guard Klay Thompson, who played for the Warriors from 2011-24, has reached double-digit scoring in each of the last four games. In Monday’s loss to the Kings, he scored 19 points, while grabbing two rebounds. He had 25 points, four assists and three rebounds in a 127-120 win at Boston on Thursday. In 47 starts this season, Thompson is averaging 13.8 points, 3.4 rebounds and two assists in 27.1 minutes. See which team to pick here.
The model has simulated Mavs vs. Warriors 10,000 times and the results are in. It is going Under the total, projecting 224 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 70% of simulations. You can only see the NBA picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Warriors vs. Mavericks, and which side of the spread cashes in nearly 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Warriors vs. Mavericks spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 147-104 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
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Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson power Mavericks past Steph Curry, Warriors
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Drama. But unsuccessful drama.
For the third time in as many game since acquiring Jimmy Butler, the Golden State Warriors fell behind by double digits, and attempted a second-half comeback. But on Wednesday night against the Dallas Mavericks, it seems they flew just a little too close to the sun.
The Dubs again got off to a slow start. Quinten Post re-joined the starting lineup to give Golden State a big look against a Mavericks team that was missing not just Anthony Davis, but also P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford, and Dereck Lively II. It didn’t really work. The offense was fast-paced and, thanks to a pair of threes from Klay Thompson (one of which was banked in), Dallas jumped out to a 15-6 lead.
Things got better from there, and it certainly was noticeable how much better the Warriors look with Curry on the bench than they did last week. But they couldn’t quite close the gap. Moses Moody scored on both halves of a two-for-one, which pulled the Warriors to within one point at the end of the first quarter. Kyrie Irving had scored 11 of Dallas’ 32 points, prompting Steve Kerr to note in the in-game interview that, “I’ve been trying to figure [how to slow Irving down] out for about 10 years.”
The answer will have to wait, because Irving thoroughly took over. But first, Klay did. Thompson scored all of Dallas’ eight points in an 8-2 run to start the second quarter, leading to an early Warriors timeout. Kerr would call a second timeout just four minutes in, with the deficit now 12 points. The timeout did little, as the offense simply couldn’t find a thing, and the Dallas lead grew to 14.
But the offense, which had gotten so sloppy with turnovers and missed layups galore, had a furious end to the quarter, highlighted by steals, offensive rebounds, and a few moments of Steph Curry brilliance. It ended with Butler grabbing an offensive rebound and finding Draymondt Green for a layup, which capped a 15-3 run, and left the Warriors trailing just 57-56 at halftime.
Another bad start to a quarter awaited Golden State, as Dallas scored the first six points of the quarter, the sixth on a technical free throw after Kerr needed to be held back. The Warriors fought to get back into it, before Irving fully took over, draining triples on three consecutive possessions to push the lead all the way to 15 points. The Dubs had overcome such deficits in each of their last two games though, so they were unfazed. They hustled and fought, and while they couldn’t fully eliminate the lead, it was just a five-point deficit going into the fourth quarter.
That deficit ballooned back to 11 points just two minutes in. Butler was doing good things, but Irving was doing even better things. It stayed near that double-digit mark for a while, before a Green three-point play and a Curry triple pulled the Warriors to within four points with about five minutes left. With just 3:31 remaining, Curry drained a three to give Golden State a 102-101 advantage, and their first lead since the opening minutes.
But Irving, giving all Warriors fans flashbacks, would simply not be beat. Dallas re-took the lead when the refs oddly awarded Kyrie with three free throws on a rip-through, and he made all three. After Curry tied it, Irving marched down the court and drained another three. Then the Warriors forced a turnover and scored, cutting the deficit to one, but they couldn’t get over that hump. Moody missed a go-ahead three at the one-minute mark and, after another stop, Curry was fouled with 37.3 seconds remaining. But he missed the second, leaving the game tied.
Dallas scored on the front end of the two-for-one, with Nnaji Marshall sinking a floater. And then the biggest play of the game: Butler drove to the hope and drained a floater, but Irving adeptly slid his feet with him, taking the charge in the process. The Warriors challenged the call to no avail; instead of a potential go-ahead three-point play, the ball was handed back to Dallas with 17.6 seconds and a two-point lead. The Warriors fouled Max Christie with 10.4 seconds and he made both free throws. Down two possessions and lacking any timeouts, Brandin Podziemski tried a Hail Mary inbounds, knowing it was their only hope. It was stolen, and the buzzer wrong, with Dallas winning 111-107.
The game was defined mostly by Golden State’s inability to make layups and threes, and by Irving’s brilliance. Kyrie gave a despondent Dallas fanbase something to cheer about, finishing with 42 points on 15-for-25 shooting, including shooting 7-for-10 from three-point range. It was pure wizardry, with exquisite ball-handling and a wide array of impossible shots that somehow went through.
Thompson added 17 points for Dallas, and while he shot just 6-for-19, all of his makes seemed timely.
Curry paced the Warriors with 25 points, but shot just 9-for-23 from the field. Butler had 21 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists, though he wasn’t quite able to take over the way he had in his first two games with the team. As a team, the Dubs shot just 28.6% on threes, compared to 41.7% for the Mavericks.
There’s no time to mope, though. The Warriors are back in action on Thursday night, when they travel a few hours south to take on the Houston Rockets in their final game before the All-Star break.
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MAVS-WARRIORS PREVIEW: BUTLER UNDEFEATED WITH NEW TEAM
The team Jimmy Butler plays for and the one he used to be with will be visiting American Airlines Center on back-to-back nights, starting Wednesday.
And that’s the same Jimmy Butler that already has tormented the Mavericks once this season when he was with the Miami Heat. They come to Dallas on Thursday.
But first, it’s the Golden State Warriors, who traded for Butler just before the deadline on Feb. 6 with the hope that they can get a big dose of “playoff Jimmy.”
Never mind that the Warriors are not much different from the Mavericks. Right now, the goal for both teams is simply to make the playoffs and worry about success in the postseason when you get there.
The Warriors are flirting with .500, just like the Mavericks. And both teams made blockbuster moves before the trade deadline.
Golden State gave up Andrew Wiggins, Kyle Anderson, a protected first-round pick and had to fork over a two-year, $100-million-plus contract extension to get Butler.
He’s put on his best face since the deal happened and Butler has proven over and over that his best face is something any NBA team would want on their side.
In two games with the Warriors so far, he’s averaged 22.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5 assists and 2.5 steals. Golden State is 2-0 with him. The Warriors started this season-long six-game trip (which actually goes to seven games with one at Sacramento after the All-Star break) with losses at Utah and the Los Angeles Lakers. Then, after getting Butler, they won at Milwaukee and Chicago. It ends Thursday in Houston.
The Mavericks already this season have felt the daggers Butler can throw. He broke the Mavericks’ hearts in November with 33 points, nine rebounds and six assists when the Heat beat Dallas in overtime in Florida. It was Butler’s dunk in the waning seconds that forced overtime, in which he had three points and an assist and the Heat won 123-118.
While the Warriors will look much different than in the past with Butler, the Mavericks have enough to worry about when it comes to looking in the mirror.
What they see in the reflection is constantly changing. Players are dropping, and fast. Daniel Gafford was the latest on Monday when he clutched his left knee on the court after banging into Sacramento’s Malik Monk. He’s out against the Warriors, along with many more Mavericks.
The Mavericks have no choice but to press on. The trade deadline is long gone. There are no centers or other big men growing on trees out there.
“The games keep coming,” coach Jason Kidd said. “No one feels sorry for us. That’s just the way the league is. For us to pout or take our ball and go home, it doesn’t work in this league. You got to fight.
“This group is fighting. The group in that locker room has character. We’re being tested right now. We have to keep the energy and effort.”
Luckily, or maybe not, fighting through adversity is nothing new for this team.
“We’ve been shorthanded since training camp,” Kidd said. “That’s the truth. (Dante) Exum’s been out since the first day of training camp. So was Luka (Doncic). No one’s complained. We suit up and play, find a way to win. Or we lose and move on. We’ve been faced with this since Day One and I think we know how to handle it and that’s what we’re doing.”
Here’s what else to watch for when Golden State visits Wednesday:
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (27-26) at DALLAS MAVERICKS (28-26)
WHEN: 8:30 p.m. Wednesday.
WHERE: American Airlines Center, Dallas.
TV: KFAA 29, MAVS TVSTREAM, ESPN.
RADIO: KEGL 97.1 FM, 99.1 FM Zona MX (Spanish)
X: @ESefko
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