Premier League: Merino double as Arsenal beat Leicester, five games up next
Team news: Nwaneri and Sterling both start
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Mikel Arteta has recalled both Ethan Nwaneri and Raheem Sterling for our trip to Leicester City in the early Saturday kick off.
They are the only two changes from our last starting line up, more than a week ago, against Newcastle in the Carabao Cup. The two to make way are Gabriel Martinelli, who was taken off with a hamstring injury during that semi-final defeat, and Kai Havertz, who also sustained a hamstring injury during our recent training camp in Dubai.
Speaking shortly before kick-off, the manager said of Nwaneri: “He has competed and played really well with and without pressure, with no expectations. That’s him, it’s in his nature. He’ll play with no fear, take initiative and make it happen.”
Ben White, who hasn’t featured since facing Chelsea away in November, has recovered from his knee injury and takes his place among the substitutes. He missed 21 games during his lay off.
Leicester City lost 2-1 to Manchester United last time out in the FA Cup, and have made two changes for this game.
Jamie Vardy returns from injury to start up front, with Victor Kristiansen also fit to start. James Justin – who netted twice in the reverse fixture – is also in the line up.
Former Gunners youth forward Stephy Mavididi is among the subs.
Arsenal: Raya, Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly, Partey, Rice, Odegaard, Nwaneri, Sterling, Trossard.
Subs: Neto, Calafiori, Zinchenko, Tierney, Kiwior, White, Jorginho, Merino, Butler-Oyedeji.
Leicester: Hermansen, Justin, Faes, Okoli, Kristiansen, Ndidi, El Khannouss, De Cordova-Reid, Ayew, Soumare, Vardy.
Subs: Stolarczyk, Coady, Coulibaly, Winks, Mavididi, Skipp, Buonanotte, Daka, Vestergaard.
Copyright 2025 The Arsenal Football Club Limited. Permission to use quotations from this article is granted subject to appropriate credit being given to www.arsenal.com as the source.
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Preview: Leicester City v Arsenal
Premier League Predictions, odds and best bets: Here comes the Liverpool wobble? Can Arsenal take advantage?
Football
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Football Journalist
Saturday 15 February 2025 07:05, UK
Our betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight for the weekend’s Premier League games and predicts a title-race swing with Liverpool slipping up at home to Wolves.
Losing Kai Havertz for the season is wholly irresponsible from Arsenal – but how much will their results be affected?
There has been a huge amount of noise, negativity and anger regarding the injury, but the with and without stats paint a positive picture. In games across all competitions without Havertz, Arsenal have lost just once in 17 matches, with a win ratio of 77 per cent.
With him, that ratio drops to 62 per cent.
I would be more concerned if one of William Saliba or Gabriel suffered this hamstring tear for a team that is built around defensive stability. Arsenal to win to nil at 11/10 with Sky Bet can provide the answer here and put some pressure onto Liverpool.
There is a simple theory to apply when approaching Aston Villa games in the Premier League – back them when they’ve had six or more days’ rest and fade them when they have not.
Since the start of last season, Unai Emery’s side have played 16 games with six days’ or more rest behind them and their record is so strong, winning 12, drawing three and losing just once.
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They are a borderline top-four team when well-rested and as Ipswich continue to disappoint me, especially defensively, Villa should have a comfortable afternoon.
Finding a way to boost their 2/5 win price with Sky Bet looks a shrewd way of adding value and you can do that by backing Morgan Rogers to score in a Villa win, which gets us to 5/2.
The powerhouse attacker has added goals to his game of late, scoring eight in his last eight games, including a hat-trick against Celtic in the Champions League. He scored at Portman Road in the reverse fixture, too, and has plenty going for him when assessing his odds here.
You could play this game 99 times and Fulham would win 33, Nottingham Forest would win 33 and the other 33 would be drawn. It is a devilishly difficult game to predict.
The outright betting might be a tricky puzzle to solve but there is hope for punters in the shots-on-target market, where Anthony Elanga looks a knocking bet.
The flying winger has been central to the way Forest are constructing their attacks as he is linking excellently with Morgan Gibbs-White. It has led to Elanga having a shot on target in seven of his last eight starts and him registering nine in total. On those numbers, the 11/10 with Sky Bet for him to record another does look juicy.
Newcastle’s record this season against teams that qualified for Europe last season and high-flying Nottingham Forest is so strong. They have lost just one of those 13 matches – and that was against Chelsea where they were edged out in a very tight game 2-1.
In those 13 matches they have averaged 1.92 goals per game, scoring two or more in nine of those. It is a really impressive return.
Eddie Howe has a team that revel playing the underdog, where they can sit a little deeper then pounce on the counter attack with Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon and Jacob Murphy. Dangerous teams in transition are always going to flourish against this Manchester City.
A common theme developing is Isak’s goal-scoring ability against elite teams. In 12 games against the elite, he has found the net in 10 of them. This world-class operator has the game to bamboozle City’s backline. He rates as a cracking bet to score in a Newcastle away win at 9/2 with Sky Bet.
Since Ivan Juric took the Southampton job, they have become tougher to play against. That is seen through their fouls-committed data, where they have averaged 13.88 fouls per 90 in his eight matches in charge.
They still lack significant quality but at least they are now making life difficult for the opposition by disturbing their rhythm and relishing the scrappy nature of Juric’s style.
Jan Bednarek has been responsible for 20 of those fouls, with his per-game average at 2.05 fouls per game. With Bournemouth expected to engage in a high-intensity game, Bednarek’s price of 5/4 with Sky Bet to make two or more fouls stands out.
Graham Potter has had Thomas Frank’s measure based on their previous meetings. Potter-ball seems to trump Frank-ball. He has won five of the six meetings between the pair – the only blip coming when he was manager of Chelsea and Brentford managed to scrap for a 0-0 draw.
Signs are positive for West Ham based on Potter implementing his philosophies on his squad – they deserved more than the point they picked up against Aston Villa and Chelsea based on the chances they created from their 28 shots on goal. The 11/8 with Sky Bet on a home win has potential.
Lots of people are sleeping on just how progressive Crystal Palace have been under Oliver Glasner. If they pick up maximum points here, it would be their best points total after 25 games in Premier League history.
It is about time they recorded some consistent wins over Everton – their head-to-head record against them is horrendous. Palace have won just once in the last 20 Premier League meetings going back to 2015.
This looks an open goal for them if they turn up based on who Everton have missing in forward areas, with Abdoulaye Doucoure, Iliman Ndiaye, Dwight McNeil, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Orel Mangala all unavailable for this trip to south London – all five would start this game in an ideal world.
Palace to win and under 4.5 goals in the match rates as a decent wager at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
Is the Liverpool wobble coming?
There are a few niggling doubts starting to creep in. Arne Slot’s men created just 0.4 worth of expected goals (xG) from open play in the defeat at Plymouth and then a total of just 0.65 total expected goals at Everton – that was their lowest xG return in any game in all competitions under Slot.
Despite Liverpool’s ridiculous record at Anfield, a pro-Wolves play at the prices is advised based on their improved defensive metrics under Vitor Pereira, who has made a brilliant short-term impact.
Under Gary O’Neil they conceded 2.5 goals per game, but that is down to 1.5 goals per game, whilst their shots-faced data is down from 14.6 to 12.4 per game. They were excellent against Aston Villa, restricting them to just 0.57 worth of expected goals in a convincing 2-0 win.
These types of defensive improvements have not been factored into the market enough here, with Wolves to avoid defeat on the double chance at 4/1 with Sky Bet just too big to pass up.
Ruben Amorim needs a performance where it is clear to see some evidence of his philosophy being put into action. All I am seeing is a miserly team that grind out results and struggles to create any momentum in games.
United have scored just 28 goals in 24 Premier League matches this season to a per-90 average of 1.17 – only Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton average fewer.
Therefore, it remains a smart betting play to keep on backing United’s inability to start games with any intent under Amorim. The only first-half goal they have scored in their last 15 games in all competitions was Bruno Fernandes’ penalty in the defeat to Brighton, and after failing to lead at the break against Leicester it is now 17 matches since this team led after 45 minutes.
Tottenham head into this one with their own problems but the 15/8 with Sky Bet for them to be winning at half-time has a chance.
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Jones Knows’ Profit & Loss record 24/25
Around Sky
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Also See:
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Villa to win and Morgan Rogers to score (5/2 with Sky Bet)
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Anthony Elanga +1 shots on target (11/10 with Sky Bet)
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Newcastle to win and Alexander Isak to score (9/2 with Sky Bet)
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Tottenham Hotspur
Manchester United
Jones Knows’ best bets…
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| Best Bet singles (1 unit) | Best Bet multiples | Total P+L | |
| Matchday One | -2.10 | -1 | -3.10 |
| Matchday Two | +1 | -1 | -3.10 |
| Matchday Three | -3.00 | -1 | -7.10 |
| Matchday Four | +3.90 | +11 | +7.80 |
| Matchday Five | -2 | -1 | +4.80 |
| Matchday Six | -1 | -1 | +2.80 |
| Matchday Seven | 0 | -1 | +1.80 |
| Matchday Eight | -3 | 0 | -2.80 |
| Matchday Nine | +1 | 0 | -1.80 |
| Matchday 10 | +2.38 | -1 | -0.42 |
| Matchday 11 | +1.4 | +5 | +5.98 |
| Matchday 12 | 0 | -1 | +4.98 |
| Matchday 13 | -2 | -0.5 | +2.48 |
| Matchday 14 | 0 | -1 | +1.48 |
| Matchday 15 | -1 | -1 | -0.52 |
| Matchday 16 | -1 | -1 | -2.52 |
| Matchday 17 | +2 | -1 | -1.52 |
| Matchday 18 | -1 | -1 | -3.52 |
| Matchday 19 | +3.5 | -1 | -1.02 |
| Matchday 20 | +3 | -1 | +0.98 |
| Matchday 21 | +1 | 0 | +1.98 |
| Matchday 22 | -2 | 0 | -0.02 |
| Matchday 23 | -3 | 0 | -3.02 |
| FA Cup fourth round | -1 | 0 | -4.02 |
