MAVS FEND OFF HORNETS
Q4 6:29
LP
Q1 6:47
LP
FINAL
LP
FINAL
LP
FINAL
LP
FRI
FEB 28
7:00 AM ICT (SATURDAY)
LP
7:30 AM ICT (SATURDAY)
LP
7:30 AM ICT (SATURDAY)
LP
96
FINAL
103
American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
CHA: LaMelo Ball, Tidjane Salaun, Brandon Miller, Tre Mann, Josh Okogie, Jusuf Nurkić, Wendell Moore Jr.
DAL: Dereck Lively II, Kylor Kelley, Daniel Gafford, Caleb Martin, Brandon Williams, Anthony Davis
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CHARLOTTE HORNETS
DALLAS MAVERICKS
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| PLAYER | MIN | FGM | FGA | FG% | 3PM | 3PA | 3P% | FTM | FTA | FT% | OREB | DREB | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PF | PTS | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35:44 | 2 | 6 | 33.3 | 2 | 5 | 40.0 | 1 | 2 | 50.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -7 | |
| 39:47 | 9 | 24 | 37.5 | 2 | 8 | 25.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 20 | -4 | |
| 30:36 | 10 | 18 | 55.6 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 6 | 7 | 85.7 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 26 | -2 | |
| 33:16 | 5 | 14 | 35.7 | 2 | 5 | 40.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | -10 | |
| 30:37 | 5 | 10 | 50.0 | 1 | 3 | 33.3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11 | -8 | |
| 04:13 | 2 | 2 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| 21:41 | 1 | 8 | 12.5 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 17:12 | 2 | 8 | 25.0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 | 100 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | |
| 13:56 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 12:58 | 4 | 7 | 57.1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -6 | |
| DNP – Coach’s Decision | ||||||||||||||||||||
| DNP – Coach’s Decision | ||||||||||||||||||||
| TOTALS | 40 | 98 | 40.8 | 7 | 27 | 25.9 | 9 | 13 | 69.2 | 14 | 42 | 64 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 16 | 96 | – | |
| PLAYER | MIN | FGM | FGA | FG% | 3PM | 3PA | 3P% | FTM | FTA | FT% | OREB | DREB | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PF | PTS | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27:49 | 6 | 12 | 50.0 | 4 | 7 | 57.1 | 2 | 3 | 66.7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 6 | |
| 33:04 | 1 | 11 | 9.1 | 0 | 6 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 50.0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | |
| 30:39 | 9 | 14 | 64.3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 | 66.7 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 14 | |
| 34:00 | 3 | 8 | 37.5 | 2 | 3 | 66.7 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 10 | |
| 38:28 | 11 | 24 | 45.8 | 2 | 9 | 22.2 | 1 | 1 | 100 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 21 | |
| 25:26 | 3 | 4 | 75.0 | 1 | 1 | 100 | 5 | 5 | 100 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | -1 | |
| 23:14 | 3 | 9 | 33.3 | 1 | 5 | 20.0 | 1 | 2 | 50.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -4 | |
| 03:48 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 04:50 | 1 | 4 | 25.0 | 1 | 3 | 33.3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | |
| 16:08 | 3 | 6 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -5 | |
| 02:34 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| DNP – Coach’s Decision | ||||||||||||||||||||
| TOTALS | 40 | 97 | 41.2 | 11 | 36 | 30.6 | 12 | 16 | 75.0 | 10 | 38 | 59 | 23 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 103 | – | |
Hornets vs Mavericks Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game
The Dallas Mavericks currently don’t have a defense to be proud of, but with the Charlotte Hornets coming into town; they may have a chance to get slightly better for a night. With LaMelo Ball not scoring efficiently since the return of his injury, the Mavs can keep his stat line contained.
This article contains predictions for an old game!
The Charlotte Hornets’ tanking efforts for Cooper Flagg may have escalated without us noticing. Charlotte has not simply lost its last four games and seven of its last eight; it has lost its last four games by an average of 36.3 points.
The Dallas Mavericks cannot assume they will benefit from such a rout, but that should be the reality, nonetheless.
My Hornets vs. Mavericks prediction will focus on perhaps the starkest part of Charlotte’s free fall, its best player. Check out my NBA picks for Thursday, February 27.
My best bet
LaMelo Ball Under 24.5 points (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
LaMelo Ball is only 23 years old. Let’s be honest, we all made mistakes at 23. We all got distracted at 23. None of us were at our strongest mentally and psychologically at 23. Furthermore, our physical pain tolerances were lower, too.
Those may not be the reasons Ball has fallen off so sharply in his fifth season, but it cannot be denied that he has fallen off in recent weeks. Since he returned from a sprained ankle, Ball has shot 32.9% from the field. Slow down for a second and realize how horrid that is.
Ball has never been the most efficient scorer, but he was shooting 41.9% from the field this season before that injury. Equally as notable, Ball was hitting 33.7% of 12.3 threes per game before the injury. In the five games since, that has fallen to 28.9% on 7.8 threes per game.
Is Ball’s ankle worse than acknowledged? He has missed four games during his return, two of them the second nights of back-to-backs.
Has he let go of the rope as the Charlotte Hornets dive towards the bottom of the standings? The Hornets have successfully lost — there is a word choice — their way to the third-worst record in the NBA, bad enough to have the best odds possible at landing Duke superstar Cooper Flagg.
Whatever the reason, Ball has fallen off. In four of his five games since he angered his ankle, he has fallen short of this points prop.
The Dallas Mavericks’ defense has been wretched in the last month, No. 26 in defensive rating since Jan. 20, but Ball scored just 13 points in more than 28 minutes against the Kings on Monday night, a worse defense. Until his shooting improves — going 3-of-13 overall and 1-of-7 from deep in Sacramento — Ball should be doubted.
LaMelo Ball Under 24.5 points
LaMelo Ball Under 3.5 made threes
Hornets Team Total Under 108.5
Occam’s razor argues Ball’s ankle is the problem. His 3-point shooting has looked too ugly to be a purely mental or psychological drop-off. Making only 28.9% of late means one has to trust Ball to take 14 threes to wreck that leg of this same-game parlay. That would be nearly double his usual frequency of late.
Such doubt in Ball easily plays into a Charlotte Team Total Under. The Hornets’ defense has held up the last couple months. It provided some intrigue as they readied this full-fledged tank. But their offense has fallen apart more and more, now ranking last in the NBA in rating in the last month of games.
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Teams
Spread
Total
Moneyline
Charlotte
+11.5
-115
o 198.5
-110
+9500
Dallas
-9.5
-110
u 221.5
-111
-430
View Matchup
View all NBA odds
Odds courtesy of bet365
Charlotte has cashed the Under on its Team Total in eight of its last 10 games, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 9.2 points even when including the two successes. Find more NBA betting trends for Hornets vs. Mavericks.
Dallas Mavericks
Player Position Status
Caleb Martin SF
Out – Hip
Reported: Wed, February 26
P.J. Washington PF
Day To Day – Ankle
Reported: Wed, February 26
Dwight Powell C
Day To Day – Hip
Reported: Wed, February 26
Show More Injuries
Charlotte Hornets
Player Position Status
Jusuf Nurkic C
Day To Day – Illness
Reported: Thu, February 27
LaMelo Ball PG
Day To Day – Ankle
Reported: Thu, February 27
Tidjane Salaün PF
Out – Ankle
Reported: Thu, February 27
Show More Injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.
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| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Thursday, 2-27-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network Charlotte, KFAA/WFAA |
Mavericks vs Hornets Preview and Injury Report: Time to bounce back
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Dallas is back at home after a trip with two losses
The Dallas Mavericks (31-28) host the Charlotte Hornets (14-43) at the American Airlines Center on Thursday night. The Mavericks are returning home after a short, two game road trip where they lost to both the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers. The Hornets are coming to Dallas in the tail-end of a long road trip. At the moment they’ve lost four straight. Here are the main things you need to know!
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The Mavericks are still very injured. Dereck Lively, Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford, and Caleb Martin are out. Dwight Powell and PJ Washington are questionable, but I have to assume both players suit up (PJ has since been downgraded to OUT). The Hornets are performing a master class of mega tanking. Grant Williams is out for the season with his knee injury. Brandon Miller is in the same boat. Tre Mann is out with a disc herniation. Josh Okogie is out as well with a hamstring issue. Lonzo Ball and Jusif Nurkic were late downgrades to questionable, whether they play is truly up in the air. Wendell Moore and DaQuan Jeffries are questionable as well.
I have to assume the Hornets don’t play Ball or Nurkic and if that’s the case, Dallas should win by default. Let’s hope the Mavericks that can play are awake after taking a long nap during the West Coast road trip.
As you can tell below, you can join me and some other Mavs Moneyball guys in a room on Playback (embedded below) during the game (though I may not be able to start it until halftime). Also, consider joining Josh and I on Pod Maverick live after the game on YouTube, we should start after the game. Thanks so much for spending time with us here at Mavs Moneyball. Let’s go Mavs!
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