Here’s what to know about Germany’s election this Sunday
Rob Schmitz
People walk past a truck with an election campaign poster featuring Friedrich Merz, leader of conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), in Oberhausen, Germany, on Feb. 21.
BERLIN — An economic slump, an immigration crisis and the lifting of a security blanket provided for decades by its most powerful ally are on the minds of German voters as they head to the polls for Sunday’s national parliamentary election.
The general election of the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house of parliament, was not supposed to come until September of this year. But on Nov. 6, just a day after American voters elected Donald Trump to a second term in office, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister after months of squabbling over how to revive Germany’s struggling economy, leading to the collapse of Scholz’s three-party coalition government and the call for a snap election.
The latest polling data shows Scholz’s Social Democrats in third place among voters (16%), behind the far-right Alternative for Germany or AfD Party (20%) and the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) alongside its Bavarian sister CSU party (29%).
The CDU will likely emerge as the largest vote-getter and thus be in the position of forming a coalition government with one or two other parties. Since all of Germany’s mainstream parties have vowed not to govern with the AfD, which is under domestic surveillance for the threat it poses to Germany’s democracy, the CDU’s candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, may have a difficult time forming a coalition government.
“I’m just worried that after the election that it will take maybe two months for a coalition government to form,” says Jana Puglierin, director of the Berlin office at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Once the coalition is in place, they need to draft a budget. And if we are very lucky, all of this will be done before the parliamentary summer break.”
The expected drawn-out German political timetable worries observers because of the next government’s urgency to deal with multiple crises that face Europe’s largest economy. These include an economic recession, a national debate over migration, and, perhaps most importantly, how to navigate a new global security order now that the Trump administration appears to be working with Russia to bring an end to Moscow’s war in Ukraine without inviting Europe or Ukraine to the negotiating table.
Whichever parties form the next coalition government in Berlin, Merz remains Scholz’s likely successor. He is a 69-year-old conservative who hails from a family of lawyers. In addition to serving as a CDU member of parliament, Merz has also worked as a corporate lawyer and as a member of the supervisory board for the German branch of Blackrock, the largest asset management company in the world.
Merz’s longtime colleague Norbert Röttgen, who also serves as a CDU member of Germany’s parliament, says Merz is a politician of conviction. Röttgen has known Merz for more than 30 years. The two entered parliament together and have worked side by side through successive governments. He says Merz has strong beliefs: “Societally conservative, traditional values and a strong, free-market conviction that liberal markets serve the people,” says Röttgen. “And he is a fundamental pro-European trans-Atlanticist.”
Röttgen says Merz’s convictions will prove useful as Germany is faced with difficult decisions after the United States has signaled changes in how it sees its European allies.
The outgoing administration has not helped build a cohesive way forward for Europe on Ukraine, Puglierin says. “I think Merz, by disposition, would be more open to also support Ukraine more decisively,” says Puglierin. “But he has to work in a framework. He will be constrained by his coalition partner and also by the German population.”
After coalition talks and tackling a budget that the Scholz administration left on the table, it might take months before Merz has the opportunity to put his mark on Germany, Puglierien says.
Hints of how he will lead, though, have trickled out in recent weeks, as Merz got into trouble with his own party when he agreed to work with the AfD late last month to pass a motion that would have toughened up Germany’s immigration policy. The motion failed after significant backlash against Merz for agreeing to work with a party seen by mainstream political parties as anti-democratic.
Voter Ute Wolters, a 64-year-old architect from Lower Saxony, worries about Merz’s potential leadership. “He claims to be up to the job, and we know he’s a good businessman, but I worry he will go back on his promise to never enter into a coalition government with the AfD,” she says, referring to repeated vows Merz has made throughout the campaign.
Another voter, Ulrich Hinz, a 74-year-old retired businessman from Frankfurt, says he thinks Merz’s pro-European outlook could help at such a trying time for Germany.
“We need a chancellor and a government that is more European and one that can get along better with the French, Italians and the Poles,” he says. “That’s the only way we are going to be able to keep up with China, Russia, and the United States.”
Esme Nicholson contributed to this story from Berlin.
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Germany is holding a national election. Here’s what’s at stake
Germans are going to the polls on Sunday in national elections. Opinion polls suggest the outcome will likely be a new chancellor and a new governing coalition.
Usually a little dry and often predictable, this election campaign by comparison has been eventful.
Last November, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) unceremoniously fired his finance minister. Scholz then lost a vote of confidence, triggering early parliamentary elections.
Shortly afterwards, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a confidant of the Trump administration, waded into the campaign, voicing his support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Musk’s intervention sparked a national debate about how Germany remembers its own 20th-century history. The chancellor called Musk’s support for far-right politicians in Europe “disgusting.”
The AfD for its part is likely to break new ground in German politics, with opinion polls suggesting it may become the second-largest political group in the country – a first for a far-right party since the Nazi era.
Two key themes have dominated campaigning: curbing mass migration and righting the country’s flailing economy.
FRIEDRICH MERZ
Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the party of former Chancellor Angela Merkel, has been the longtime frontrunner in this contest. Regularly polling at more than 30%, the Union party – composed of the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU – seems destined to be Germany’s largest party and return itself to the helm of German politics.
The CDU has adopted a much more aggressive policy towards immigration than seen in the Merkel era of open borders.
In the final weeks of campaigning, Merz catapulted immigration to the fore – so much so, that he has been accused of leaving the door open to working with the far-right.
In late January, he caused nationwide consternation when he sought to push legislation imposing stricter controls on immigration through the Bundestag, or German parliament.
His willingness to use the support of the AfD to do so broke a long-held taboo in German politics – although he ultimately failed to pass a binding bill – and prompted massive protests in German cities.
In an interview at his party congress in early February, however, Merz reiterated to CNN that working with the AfD was a non-starter. “They are against… everything (that) we are, what we build up in the Federal Republic of Germany. There is no co-operation with this party,” he said.
Merz is not a newcomer to German politics, but this is his second iteration as a politician.
Between 1989 and 1994, Merz was a member of the European parliament (MEP) for Germany. He subsequently became a member of the Bundestag, representing the CDU there until 2009. He then left politics to work as a corporate lawyer, where he sat on many supervisory boards, including at investment giant BlackRock.
He now represents his hometown of Brilon and is widely reputed to be a millionaire with a private pilot’s license.
He made two failed attempts to become CDU head, in 2018 and 2021. He officially took over as head of the party in 2022.
ALICE WEIDEL
The AfD’s candidate for chancellor, its co-leader Alice Weidel, is staunchly anti-immigration.
The AfD had a successful 2024, performing strongly in regional elections. It became the largest party in Thuringia, a first since the Nazi era, and came a close second in another regional vote.
Opinion polls suggest that popularity has translated to the national level too. The party has been polling in second place, with around 20%, since the snap election was called and the figures have hardly budged.
Speaking to CNN at a huge rally for the AfD, at which Musk appeared by video link, Weidel said one of her first acts as chancellor would be “closing our borders, controlling them and then sending out all the illegals.” It’s a policy she calls “remigration” – a term that has Nazi connotations.
OLAF SCHOLZ
The incumbent chancellor’s party, the SPD, could become the election’s biggest losers.
Having become the largest party in the 2021 election, opinion polls indicate they look set for a downward swing in votes by around 10 points. That would put them not only behind the AfD, but fighting it out with the Greens for third.
Scholz rode to power on a wave of post-Merkel optimism, but his “traffic light” coalition has been beset by infighting from the start. Many of those disagreements spilled out into public and the country grew weary of constant bickering.
All of that lead to some pretty dim views of Scholz and his SPD. One poll last September ranked Scholz as the least popular German chancellor since reunification.
Scholz’s popularity was so low that just before the election season kicked into full swing, there were rumors that his party wanted Boris Pistorius, the current defense minister, to replace him as the party’s Kanzlerkandidat.
ROBERT HABECK
The Green Party, polling nationally at around 13%, should also be considered one to watch.
It is unlikely to gather enough votes to be the biggest party, but it could play an important role in the formation of the next government. The Greens’ candidate for chancellor is Robert Habeck, currently the nation’s economics minister.
Immigration has been the major focus of this election, with concerns fueled in part by a series of high-profile attacks allegedly carried out by asylum seekers or migrants.
Scholz reintroduced checks on borders with neighboring European nations in recent months, a move many saw as him trying to curry favor with voters who may be turning towards the populist AfD.
Running a close second is the economy.
Usually a powerhouse, Germany’s economy has been stagnating, and the general view is that major reform is needed.
In January, the Federal Statistics Office of Germany said that the country’s GDP had shrunk for the second year running, by 0.2%, following a contraction in 2023 of 0.3%.
Many of the economic headwinds have been caused by issues outside of Scholz’s control but, nevertheless, voters believe that his government has done little to try to rectify the situation.
One major contributor to the hardships stems from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Shortly after the invasion of Ukraine, Germany ended its usual heavy reliance on Russian gas.
That, coupled with the rising competition from China in the automotive sector – a huge cog in the economic machine of Germany – and a looming trade crisis with a belligerent Trump administration are all worrying prospects.
Connected to the debate on the economy will be a focus on reviving the country’s important automotive industry. The Central Bank has said that problems within the industry are “structural,” and are thus exacerbating the drag on the economy.
Major companies including Volkswagen, one of world’s largest car manufacturers, are facing the prospect of mass layoffs and plant closures.
Germany’s governments are almost always formed in coalitions as no one party manages to gather the 50%-plus votes needed to govern alone.
This time around will be no different, and there are multiple different options for potential coalitions. The winner of the election will look for a partner to form a majority, but it can take weeks or even months for a government to be formed.
Whatever the outcome of the vote, however, one thing is almost certain: The AfD will be blocked from being a partner in any coalition.
In a quirk of German politics, the governing coalitions are often given names. The previous coalition government, headed by the SPD (red), included the Green Party (green) and Liberal Party (yellow) – together they were known as the “traffic light” coalition.
Perhaps just one thing is clear – the next German government is not going to emerge fully formed after the polls close on Sunday night.
CNN’s Benjamin Brown contributed to this report.
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