Monfils and Dimitrov rewind the clock; Sakkari seeks Gauff upset: Indian Wells, Day 6 Preview
Before each day’s play at the BNP Paribas Open, we’ll break down three must-see matches.
Published Mar 09, 2025
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The fact that Alcaraz was 11-2 coming into Indian Wells wasn’t a surprise to any tennis fan. The fact that Shapovalov was 10-4? That’s not something that many, or any, would have seen coming from the Canadian, who began the year just inside the Top 60, and who dropped all the way to 140 in 2024.
But Shapovalov has rediscovered his swing over the past month, winning a title in Dallas, reaching a semifinal in Acapulco, and beating for Top 20ers: Ruud, Fritz, Paul, and Machac. “Shapo” is either hot or not, but when he’s the former, there are few more spectacular shotmakers, whether he’s hooking his lefty serve to the corners or rifling backhand winners from two feet off the ground.
Read More: Carlos Alcaraz makes winning start to 2025 Indian Wells title defense
On Monday, Shapovalov will meet an equally spectacular, and more successful, shotmaker in Alcaraz. The two have played once, two years ago at Roland Garros, and the Spaniard was an easy, straight-set winner. Now they’ll face off on a surface—the slow hard courts of Indian Wells—that, if anything, Alcaraz likes even better. Shapo is a guy who can stay with Alcaraz in the shot-making department on the right day. Will Monday be that day? It will be interesting, if nothing else, to see how far the Canadian’s current momentum can take him. He’s still just 25. Winner: Alcaraz
Sakkari leads Gauff 5-3 in their head to head, and she beat her in their most recent recent meeting, which came at Indian Wells a year ago.
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Based on ranking and long-term form, Gauff should be the solid, possibly overwhelming, favorite. She’s No. 3 in the world, and has been to the semis or better four times at Slams in the last two seasons. Sakkari is ranked 29th, and hasn’t been out of the third round at a major since 2022.
But there are some extenuating circumstances to this matchup. First, Sakkari leads Gauff 5-3 in their head to head, and she beat her in their most recent recent meeting, which came at Indian Wells a year ago. Second, Sakkari likes this tournament as much or more than any other; she has reached the final two times in the past three years. Third, Gauff was 0-2 in the month of February, and nearly lost to 52nd-ranked Moyuka Uchijima on Saturday after double faulting 21 times.
Read More: Coco Gauff loves styling her natural hair, on and off the court
That said, Sakkari didn’t exactly roll into Indian Wells, either; she lost in the first round at her previous two events.
This feels like a match that will be on Gauff’s racquet. At some point, she’s going to snap out of her current funk; she always does. Sometimes that can happen when a player just barely avoids defeat in a near-disastrous performance. But I’ll say Coco’s turnaround will have to wait at least one week longer. Winner: Sakkari
This year Monfils became the oldest ATP title winner since 1990; last year Dimitrov re-cracked the Top 10.
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Old guys—Monfils is 38, Dimitrov 34.
Entertaining guys—Monfils is still one of the sport’s most acrobatic athletes, while Dimitrov’s smooth attack now makes him look like the ghost of Federer, rather than his “Baby”.
Renaissance guys—In January, Monfils became the oldest ATP title winner since 1990; last year Dimitrov re-cracked the Top 10.
They’ve played six times before. While the Frenchman holds a 4-2 lead, the Bulgarian won their most recent match, at Wimbledon last summer.
Monfils had the better first-round win this weekend, over Sebastian Korda, but that doesn’t mean much with him; strong performances can lead right into indifferent ones. Dimitrov is off to a slow start this season; he was just 3-4 before IW. But he likes this tournament, and has been to the semis and quarters here in recent years.
All of which means: When it comes to picking a winner between these two, your guess is as good as mine. Winner: Monfils
Monfils and Dimitrov rewind the clock; Sakkari seeks Gauff upset: Indian Wells, Day 6 Preview
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ATP Indian Wells Day 6 Predictions Including Denis Shapovalov Vs Carlos Alcaraz
As the ATP Indian Wells Masters progresses, key matchups will test players’ form and adaptability. From Taylor Fritz’s home-court edge to Carlos Alcaraz facing the unpredictable Denis Shapovalov, each battle presents unique challenges. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on offer. But who will advance?
Head-to-Head: first meeting
Karen Khachanov and Ben Shelton face off in a clash of power hitters. The slow Indian Wells conditions could blunt Shelton’s aggressive serve-and-forehand combination, favoring Khachanov’s more measured baseline game. If the Russian can extend rallies and force Shelton into longer exchanges, he has the edge to come through in a tight battle.
Prediction: Khachanov in 3
Head-to-Head: Fritz 3-0 Tabilo
Taylor Fritz and Alejandro Tabilo meet in a matchup that favors the American, both in terms of experience and conditions. Fritz, the 2022 Indian Wells champion, has looked sharp so far and thrives in these slow, high-bouncing courts, while Tabilo, despite a solid start to 2024, is still adjusting to this level on hard courts. The two have never faced off before, but Fritz’s superior firepower and ability to control baseline exchanges should give him the upper hand. Unless Tabilo can disrupt his rhythm early, Fritz is the strong favorite to advance.
Prediction: Fritz in 2
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Head-to-Head: first meeting
Botic van de Zandschulp and Francisco Cerúndolo face off in a matchup that could be dictated by form and surface preference. Cerundolo has been steady in 2025, picking up wins on both hard and clay courts, while van de Zandschulp has struggled with consistency and fitness. The slow Indian Wells conditions should favor Cerundolo’s baseline-heavy game, especially if he can extend rallies and expose van de Zandschulp’s recent lack of rhythm. If the Dutchman can’t find his best level, Cerundolo is well-positioned to take this one.
Prediction: Van de Zandschulp in 3
Head-to-Head: Alcaraz 1-0 Shapovalov
Carlos Alcaraz and Denis Shapovalov meet in a battle of explosive shot-makers, with Alcaraz leading their head-to-head. The defending Indian Wells champion has looked solid despite some recent injury concerns. The slow conditions favor Alcaraz’s all-court game and defensive skills, making it difficult for Shapovalov to hit through him with his high-risk shot-making. Unless Shapovalov rediscovers his top level, Alcaraz should have little trouble advancing.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
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