Edmen Shahbazyan is back in the win column.
On the UFC Fight Night 251 main card Saturday, Shahbazyan (14-5 MMA, 7-5 UFC) only needed 95 seconds to dispose of Dylan Budka (7-5 MMA, 0-3 UFC) at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. A slick overhand right was followed by ground-and-pound for the finish.
THE SOUND OF THIS RIGHT HAND FROM EDMEN SHAHBAZYAN #UFCVegas102 pic.twitter.com/4WZDAqaofl
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) February 16, 2025
Shahbazyan, 27, moves to 3-2 in his most recent five, alternating wins and losses in that stretch.
Budka, 25, could be on the chopping block after what was his third loss in as many UFC attempts.
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UFC Fight Night Edmen Shahbazyan vs Dylan Budka Predictions, Picks & Odds
Edman Shahbazyan takes on Dylan Budka as part of the main card at UFC Fight Night and Tony Satori believes it’ll be the favorite dictating the fight, ultimately ending with a knockout.
The main card of UFC Fight Night features a middleweight bout between unranked contenders Edmen Shahbazyan and Dylan Budka.
Current UFC odds have Shahbazyan listed as a large betting favorite at -400 via BET99, while Budka returns at +310. Here are my free UFC Fight Night: Shahbazyan vs. Budka predictions for Saturday’s event at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas.
Fight analysis
Dylan Budka earned a contract to the UFC with a unanimous decision victory over Chad Hanekom on Dana White’s Contender Series. However, he has struggled to find his footing in the world’s best promotion with two straight losses to Cesar Almeida and Andre Petroski.
I think it is more likely than not that Budka is a stronger fighter than what we have seen out of him from those two losses, but there is just nothing there to confidently invest in this fighter. Let’s start with the loss to Almeida, which was a terrible performance.
Budka couldn’t establish anything from a distance, which led to some exchanges in the clinch. He essentially hung on for dear life as Almeida pummeled him in the clinch, which somehow led to Budka gassing out as he was hanging on and doing nothing while absorbing punches.
Almeida had seen enough and finished him with a second-round knockout.
Budka followed that loss with a fight against Petroski, prior to which Budka missed weight by 2.5 pounds and nearly collapsed during the weigh-ins. That in itself is a concern for Budka at 185 pounds moving forward, let alone the poor performances he has demonstrated across the two losses.
He has displayed low-level striking, grappling, and takedown defense, and it would likely take a complete overhaul in this camp for Budka to show the necessary improvement to beat Edmen Shahbazyan. Is that overhaul possible? Absolutely, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Best bet analysis
That said, I’m not a fan of Shahbazyan’s -370 moneyline odds, but I see significant value in the method-of-victory market. Shahbazyan’s method-of-victory odds are as follows:
I want to eliminate the submission prop first. Budka will likely try to grapple unsuccessfully again, while Shahbazyan is a violent striker who will prefer to keep this fight standing. Shahbazyan has just one submission victory through 18 professional MMA bouts and has attempted just four takedowns over his past seven fights in the UFC if you exclude his matchup against Nassourdine Imavov.
That leaves Shahbazyan’s knockout and decision props, and the clear value, in my opinion, is on the former. First, Budka has demonstrated a weak gas tank in the UFC, and I find it highly unlikely he can survive three rounds against Shahbazyan unless he pulls off a miracle knockout or submission early on.
Oddsmakers agree, considering that this fight to not go the distance is priced at -230.
Second, Shahbazyan carries a ton of power with 11 of his 13 professional MMA wins coming by KO/TKO. I believe this play offers plus-money value only because Shahbazyan is 2-5 in his past seven fights.
However, those five losses are to Imavov, Gerald Meerschaert, Anthony Hernandez, Jack Hermansson, and Derek Brunson. With all due respect to Budka, he is nowhere near the caliber of fighters on that list.
Odds as of 2-15.
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Tony Sartori has written over 1,000 pieces of sports betting content across multiple different media outlets. He covers the NHL, UFC, PGA, NFL and MLB. Tony started part-time while attending the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he went on to receive a B.A. in Economics and a certificate in Entrepreneurship in 2022. He continues to work full-time in the sports betting landscape.
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 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Shahbazyan | Budka |
| To win outright | -400 | +310 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +125 | +1600 |
| To win by decision | +280 | +600 |
| To win by submission | +425 | +975 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
| Shahbazyan | Budka | |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Age | 25 |
| 6-foot-2 | Height | 6-foot |
| Middleweight | Weight Class | Middleweight |
| 75 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 13-5 | Record | 7-4 |
| 11 | Wins by KO | 1 |
| 1 | Wins by submission | 2 |
Edmen Shahbazyan destroys 0-3 UFC fighter, returns to win column in Las Vegas
Edmen Shahbazyan is back, and in a big way.
The once-hot UFC middleweight prospect regained some momentum on Saturday following wins and losses traded to the best in the world. Coming off a loss to Gerald Meerschaert his last time out, Shahbazyan rebounded in emphatic fashion at UFC Vegas 102.
UFC Fight Night live results & highlights for Jared Cannonier vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Shahbazyan, 27, would fight Dylan Budka (0-2 in UFC), a younger fighter also signed from Dana White’s Contender Series. A considerable step down in competition, Shahbazyan returned to form against Budka, turning off his lights with a combo in Round 1.
THE SOUND OF THIS RIGHT HAND FROM EDMEN SHAHBAZYAN 💥 #UFCVegas102 pic.twitter.com/4WZDAqaofl
Two punches is all it took to wobble Budka and sent him to the ground, the referee then stopping the contest.
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Statement made ✅@EdmenShahbazyan gets the impressive first round finish at #UFCVegas102! pic.twitter.com/Lm39KYvpmV
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Christopher De Santiago is a 22 year-old journalist from Gainesville, Texas with years of experience covering MMA.
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