duke basketball

UNC basketball vs Duke: Score prediction, scouting report for ACC rivalry game

UNC basketball and Duke meet in another high-stakes matchup on the final day of the regular season.

The Tar Heels (20-13, 13-6 ACC) are fighting for an NCAA Tournament berth and the second-ranked Blue Devils (27-3, 18-1) are trying to win their first outright ACC regular-season championship since 2022.

The 264th battle of the blues tips off at 6:30 p.m. Saturday from the Smith Center. A win for UNC would boost its chances of making March Madness. A win for the Blue Devils would complete a sweep of the Tar Heels for the second time in three seasons under head coach Jon Scheyer.

Duke didn’t face much resistance in an 87-70 win against UNC on Feb. 1 at Cameron Indoor Stadium, leaning on dominant performances from freshman standouts Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel. But RJ Davis and the Tar Heels are playing better of late as winners of six straight entering the regular-season finale.

Here’s a preview, some players to watch and a score prediction for UNC vs. Duke.

UNC has been the second-hottest 3-point shooting team in the nation across the last six games, connecting on 47.8% of its shots from long range. That trails only Colorado State (48.1%), according to Bart Torvik. Over the last three games, UNC has knocked down 35 three-pointers, including nine from fifth-year guard RJ Davis. The reigning ACC Player of the Year, Davis has drilled a trio of treys in three straight games for the first time this season. Six squads have made double-digit 3-pointers against Duke, but the Blue Devils won five of those six games. Over the last five games, teams combined to make 28 of 110 shots (25.4%) from beyond the arc against Duke.

In Duke’s three losses, the Blue Devils allowed an average of 76.3 points. Kentucky made 10 three-pointers, attempted 24 free throws and scored 26 points in the paint. Kansas and Clemson did their damage on the interior, combining for 70 points in the paint. The Tigers also attempted 22 free throws and kept the Blue Devils in foul trouble. UNC’s offense has been balanced during its six-game winning streak, but the Tar Heels have to limit their turnovers against the Blue Devils. That starts with point guard Elliot Cadeau, who had five of UNC’s 14 turnovers in the blowout loss at Duke. Cadeau had 12 assists and three turnovers at Virginia Tech. The Heels need Cadeau at his best in order to pull off an upset against the Blue Devils.

When they heat up from deep, Duke’s Isaiah Evans and UNC’s Ian Jackson are must-watch players. As instant offense off the bench, Evans and Jackson have opened things up for their teams as a whole because of their shooting ability. Evans has reached double figures in four of the last five games, with 19 three-pointers in that stretch. The Fayetteville native had three points in eight minutes off the bench in the first meeting with UNC. On the other side, Jackson has scored double-digit points in five of the last six games. He’s made 17 3-pointers across those six games, including five treys against Virginia Tech. After scoring eight points at Duke on Feb. 1, Jackson has to be better for UNC in the rematch. Both players are capable of swinging the momentum in favor of their squads.

Duke 85, UNC 70: The Tar Heels are rolling at the right time, but so are the Blue Devils. Duke’s level of dominance has reached historic levels ahead of March Madness. UNC needs a big win to boost its NCAA Tournament chances, but this isn’t 2022.

Rodd Baxley covers Duke, North Carolina and N.C. State for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding those teams? Send them to rbaxley@fayobserver.com.

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Elliot Cadeau turnovers, Tar Heels’ path to pulling off upset win vs Duke

Isaiah Evans, Ian Jackson as X-factors off the bench for Duke, UNC

UNC vs Duke score prediction

No. 2 Duke men’s basketball sweeps rivalry series in road win over UNC

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No. 2 Duke sweeps UNC

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8:44 PM, MARCH 8, 2025

🏆 NO. 2 DUKE SWEEPS RIVALRY SERIES IN ROAD WIN

7:39 PM, MARCH 8, 2025

🏀 DUKE LEADS 43-42 AT HALFTIME

3:11 PM, MARCH 4, 2025

🔥 LATEST BRACKET PREDICTIONS

2:50 PM, MARCH 4, 2025

📊 SEASON STATS COMPARISON

1:52 PM, MARCH 4, 2025

⚔️ RECENT SERIES HISTORY

No. 2 Duke completed its rivalry series sweep against North Carolina, winning 82-69 after a dominant second-half performance.

The win stamps the Blue Devils (28-3, 19-1 ACC) as the outright ACC regular season champions and likely solidifies their chances at a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Knueppel, who dropped 22 points in the first meeting, starred again in Chapel Hill with 17 points. Outside of Knueppel, Duke finished with four players scoring 15 or more points, including Flagg, who ended with 15 points, nine rebounds and four blocks.

The Blue Devils rarely cooled off throughout the contest — symbolic of their current lopsided winning streak — shooting 56.4% from the field and 47.4% from three. They led by as much as 15 points in the first half, even with Flagg in foul trouble.

North Carolina (20-12, 13-7 ACC) caught fire with eight minutes left before the break, going on a 10-0 to cut the deficit to one point at halftime. Davis and the Tar Heels continued the hot streak in the second, overtaking the Blue Devils and leading by as much as seven points. Across Duke’s seven-game win streak, where they’ve won by 32 points on average, this was arguably the Blue Devils’ first test in weeks.

The tide turned back in Duke’s favor from there, though, and stayed that way for the rest of the affair. They outscored UNC 33-13 after North Carolina took a seven-point lead. Davis, who scored 15 points in the first half and five in the early minutes of second half, went scoreless in the last 17 minutes of the contest.

The Tar Heels will look to the ACC tournament as an opportunity to help their case at a spot in March Madness.

Duke’s Maliq Brown entered the contest with just two made three-pointers on the season.

With nearly three minutes left in the game, Brown has doubled his season total — the second of the game upping the Blue Devils’ lead to 11. Duke leads 78-67 with 3:15 remaining.

They’ve made four of their last five field goals, while UNC has only hit six shots since the 17:43 mark.

The Blue Devils have retaken the lead, going on a 12-0 run and making their last four field goals.

Following forward Maliq Brown’s trailing two-handed slam, North Carolina called a timeout with 9:39 left in the game Duke leading 65-59. The Tar Heels have gone silent from the field, hitting just one of their last seven field goals and not scoring in the last three minutes. Davis hasn’t scored since the 17:43 mark.

Just five points in the first half, Flagg already has six after the break.

North Carolina didn’t skip a beat after halftime, clicking on all cylinders and taking its first lead of the game, leading 52-47 at the 17:34 mark.

Following Proctor’s three to start the second half, the Tar Heels went on a 10-2 run behind back-to-back threes by Davis and forward Jae’lyn Withers.

Duke called a timeout to try to stop the bleeding.

Duke and North Carolina are only separated by one point entering the break after major scoring runs from both teams.

The first 12 minutes of the contest looked like a recreation of the Tobacco Road Rivalry’s first meeting this season, where the Blue Devils went on a 16-0 scoring run early and didn’t look back. Even with Flagg in foul trouble, Knueppel and guards Tyrese Proctor and Sion James picked up the slack, carrying Duke to a lead as high as 15.

But in the last eight minutes, it was all North Carolina.

Spearheaded by Davis’ 15 points and back-to-back baskets with less than three minutes left, the Tar Heels cut the Blue Devils’ lead down to one point. Davis tried to send UNC into halftime on an even higher note with a contested step back three at the buzzer but missed.

Flagg played just nine minutes in the half due to his three fouls.

Here’s a breakdown of how each team fared in the first half.

HERE COMES UNC.

Down by as much as 15 points, the Tar Heels have stormed back before halftime, going on a 10-0 run and cutting Duke’s lead down to 1. The Blue Devils have turned it over three times in the last three minutes.

Guard RJ Davis, who leads North Carolina in points with 13, scored back-to-back highly contested baskets to make it a one-point. After Davis’ double-clutch layup, Duke called a timeout to send Dean Smith Center into a frenzy.

Duke walked into Dean Smith Center with the hot hand and haven’t cooled off yet, holding a 15-point lead with less than eight minutes left in the first half. The Blue Devils look like they haven’t skipped a beat from their matchup back in early February.

Leading 36-21, Duke has made 10 of its last 11 field goal attempts and is on a 12-2 run for more than three minutes. They are shooting 75% from the field on 12-of-16 shots.

They’ve scored 16 points since Flagg went to the bench.

The Blue Devils have found a rhythm from behind the arch early, knocking down four of five threes in the first eight minutes of play. Freshman forward Kon Knueppel leads the way with 10 points and two threes.

Freshman phenom Cooper Flagg picked up his second foul at the 12:53 mark and went to the bench.

The Tar Heels have forced five turnovers, which has translated to a two-minute scoring drought for Duke, but the Blue Devils are shooting 69% from the field.

Below are the starting lineups for the Blue Devils and Tar Heels.

🔵⚪️ Duke

🐐 North Carolina

*Celebrating Senior Night

The Blue Devils reported that forward Maliq Brown, who dislocated his left shoulder in Feburary, will be active for the rivalry game.

Round two of the Tobacco Road rivalry is almost here.

The in-state foes will match up for the 264th time, this go-around in the Dean Smith Center. No. 2 Duke and North Carolina’s 2025 campaigns have traveled in completely different directions — their first contest on Feb. 1 where the Blue Devils won 87-70 showcased that.

However, the Tar Heels have put together a string of conference wins as of late, entering Saturday on a six-game winning streak. And with each contest becoming more and more important to their March Madness hopes, a win could solidify their postseason hopes even before conference tournament play.

Here’s how ESPN’s College Gameday Crew think the game will go:

In Andy Katz’s most recent March Madness men’s bracket predictions, he has Duke as a No. 1 seed and North Carolina as a No. 11 seed. As we sit less than two weeks from Selection Sunday, this Saturday night matchup could certainly have ramifications on postseason placement come March 16.

Here are Katz’s full predictions with region, seed and matchups. Duke and North Carolina are bolded below:

First four out: Oklahoma, Xavier, Boise State, SMU
Next four out: Cincinnati, Wake Forest, Texas, UC Irvine

👉 Click or tap here for Katz’s entire bracket predictions, including his entire field of 68 in order

Here’s how the instate rivals match up on the court:

*Number in parentheses is national ranking for each statistic

👉 Click or tap here for all DI men’s college basketball stats

Duke vs. North Carolina is one of the oldest and renowned rivalries in all of sports, matching up for the 264th time on Saturday. The two blue blood programs have been facing off on the hardwood since 1920, when the Tar Heels prevailed 38-25 on Jan. 24.

North Carolina leads the last 10 matchups 6-4, but Duke is going for the regular season sweep on Saturday. It would be the third straight regular season sweep in the rivalry, as UNC won both games last season and the Blue Devils swept the series in 2023.

Duke owns the largest margin of victory in the last 10, taking down the Tar Heels 87-67 in Mike Krzyzewski’s last game at Dean Smith Center in 2022. Here’s a look at the last 10 matchups:

No. 2 Duke wasted no time asserting control in its 87-70 victory over North Carolina on Feb. 1 at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Blue Devils jumped out to a 16-0 run early and led by as many as 30, overwhelming the Tar Heels with size and sharpshooting.

Freshman star Cooper Flagg stuffed the stat sheet with 21 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists, while Kon Knueppel poured in 22 points on 7-of-11 shooting. Tyrese Proctor added 17 points and three assists as Duke shot 53% from the field and knocked down 10 three-pointers.

UNC struggled to find any rhythm against Duke’s defense, committing 14 turnovers that led to 19 Blue Devil points. RJ Davis and Drake Powell each scored 12, but the Tar Heels shot just 30% in the first half and trailed 47-25 at the break.

North Carolina made a late push, trimming the deficit to 16 in the closing minutes, but Duke never let the game slip.

👉 Click or tap here to recap all of the highlights from the first matchup

Here’s everything you need to know to watch the rivalry matchup:

We will be live-blogging the game right here on NCAA.com.

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Selection Sunday

🏆 No. 2 Duke sweeps rivalry series in road win

😈 Blue Devils breaking away

👀 Duke back in front, leads 65-59

🔥 UNC takes FIRST lead of the game

🏀 Duke leads 43-42 at halftime

🫨 UNC goes on run, trails by 1

😬 Duke catching fire, lead by 15

👀 Blue Devils lead 24-17 early, Flagg sits with two fouls

🏀 Starting lineups

🍿 10 minutes till tip-off

🔥 Latest bracket predictions

📊 Season stats comparison

⚔️ Recent series history

Fast facts

📝 Recapping last matchup on Feb. 1

📺 How to watch the Tobacco Road rivalry

SEED	SOUTH	West	East	midwest
1	Auburn	Tennessee	Duke	Houston
16	SEMO/Bucknell	Omaha	Southern/Quinnipiac	Bryant

8	Memphis	BYU	Vanderbilt	Gonzaga
9	Utah State	New Mexico	UConn	Creighton

5	Clemson	Louisville	Missouri	Maryland
12	Arkansas/Nebraska	UC San Diego	Yale	McNeese

4	Arizona	Texas A&M	Michigan	Kentucky
13	Chattanooga	Lipscomb	High Point	Akron

6	UCLA	Marquette	Oregon	Saint Mary’s
11	VCU	Ohio State	Drake	San Diego State/North Carolina

3	St. John’s	Purdue	Texas Tech	Wisconsin
14	Jacksonville State	Towson	Utah Valley	Northern Colorado

7	Mississippi State	Ole Miss	Illinois	Kansas
10	Baylor	Indiana	West Virginia	Georgia

2	Michigan State	Iowa State	Florida	Alabama
15	Central Connecticut	Norfolk State	Robert Morris	South Alabama

Duke	Stat	North Carolina
83.5 (#13)	Points/game	82.1 (#24)
61.1 (#6)	Points allowed/game	75.9 (#288)
38.5% (#15)	3-point %	35.4% (#98)
78.3% (#16)	Free throw %	73.7 (#119)
9.4 (#10)	Turnovers/game	10.9 (#94)
Cooper Flagg, 19.6 ppg (#27)	Leading scorer	RJ Davis, 17.2 ppg (#102)

Date	Winner/SCore	location
February 1, 2025	Duke, 87-70	Durham, NC
March 9, 2024	North Carolina, 84-79	Durham, NC
February 3, 2024	North Carolina, 93-84	Chapel Hill, NC
March 4, 2023	Duke, 62-57	Chapel Hill, NC
February 4, 2023	Duke, 63-57	Durham, NC
April 2, 2022	North Carolina, 81-77	New Orleans, LA (Final Four)
March 5, 2022	North Carolina, 94-81	Durham, NC
February 5, 2022	Duke, 87-67	Chapel Hill, NC
March 6, 2021	North Carolina, 91-73	Chapel Hill, NC
February 6, 2021	North Carolina, 91-87	Durham, NC

Holding Court: Hubert Davis Is UNC’s Expert in Rivalry Upsets

Posted by David Glenn | Mar 5, 2025 | Columns, Holding Court With David Glenn, Sports, Town Square

By David Glenn

In the modern history of the Carolina-Duke men’s basketball rivalry, going back to the 1980-81 season, there have been 27 games where the teams entered the matchup with truly lopsided reputations.

Most of the time, of course, thanks to the legendary tenures of Hall of Fame coaches such as Dean Smith, Roy Williams and Mike Krzyzewski, both teams have been nationally ranked when they faced each other. Occasionally, as in the teams’ 2021 and 2023 matchups, neither was in the Top 25.

The most lopsided games occur when one team is in the more elite tier of the Top 25 — the national Top 10 — and the other team isn’t ranked at all heading into one of the rivalry’s head-to-head matchups.

The lopsided description will apply once again Saturday (6:30 p.m., ESPN), when #2 Duke (27-3, 18-1 ACC) visits unranked UNC (20-11, 13-6 ACC) at the Smith Center. The Blue Devils have lost only once since November, they have the possible National Player of the Year in freshman forward Cooper Flagg, and they are listed as a 13-point favorite over the Tar Heels.

In those most lopsided Carolina-Duke matchups of the past 45 years, as you might expect, the highly ranked favorite has won a large majority of the time — 21 times in 27 chances, to be exact, for a success rate of approximately 78 percent.

That means, of course, that the heavy underdog has sprung the upset only six times since the 1979-80 season.

UNC was the victorious underdog all six times.

North Carolina’s RJ Davis (4) in-bounds the ball in front of the Duke student section during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Durham, N.C., Saturday, March. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Ben McKeown)

Amazingly, Hubert Davis was personally involved in five of those six hard-to-believe Carolina victories — twice as a player (both in 1990), once as an assistant coach under Williams (2014), and twice more as the Tar Heels’ head coach (both in 2022).

Going all the way back to that 1980-81 season, the unranked Tar Heels have turned the tables on the heavily favored and top-10 Blue Devils three times in Chapel Hill (1990, 2003, 2014), twice in Durham (1990, 2022) and, most famously, at the 2022 Final Four in New Orleans, in the final game of Coach K’s illustrious career.

(Side note: The most recent example of an unranked Duke team beating a top-10 Carolina squad came during the 1979-80 campaign, the season before Coach K succeeded Bill Foster in Durham.)

In 1990, Davis was a sophomore sharpshooter in Smith’s regular playing rotation, usually as the first player off the bench. He was the Tar Heels’ fourth-leading scorer that season, behind Rick Fox, Scott Williams and Kevin Madden, at about 10 points per game. Davis shot about 40 percent from 3-point territory.

Although the 1989-90 Tar Heels finished only 8-6 in the ACC and 21-13 overall, they swept the mighty Blue Devils, who boasted three All-ACC performers (Christian Laettner, Phil Henderson, Alaa Abdelnaby) to the Tar Heels’ one (Fox), won 29 games overall, and made it all the way to the NCAA championship game before getting clobbered there by UNLV.

In 2014, Davis was three years into his nine-year tenure as an assistant coach under Williams. UNC’s best player that year, sophomore guard Marcus Paige (now an assistant coach under Davis), took control of the game in the second half against #5 Duke, and the Tar Heels — who had started 0-3 in conference play that season and had suffered several surprising losses — won in front of a Carolina-friendly crowd at the Smith Center.

Most recently, in 2022, Davis was the Tar Heels’ head coach for one of the most stunning runs in Carolina basketball history. In the span of about one month, UNC went from being an NCAA Tournament bubble team to becoming one of the most sensational teams in America. During that run all the way to the national championship game, Davis authored two of the most powerful head-to-head daggers in the history of the celebrated Carolina-Duke rivalry.

First, Davis led the unranked Tar Heels to a stunning 94-81 victory over #4 Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium — on “Coach K Court” — in the long-planned, much-celebrated, jam-packed, celebrities-everywhere final home game of Krzyzewski’s 42-year tenure in Durham. Earlier in the season, the Blue Devils had hammered the Heels in Chapel Hill by an 87-67 margin. In the rematch, exactly one month later, UNC had four players (Armando Bacot-23, Caleb Love-22, RJ Davis-21, Brady Manek-20) score 20 or more points in the same game for the first time in program history.

Almost one month later, on April 2, Carolina and Duke finally experienced something truly unprecedented in the history of their famously intense rivalry, which dates to 1920. The Tar Heels and the Blue Devils faced each other at the Final Four. UNC, still unranked and only a #8 seed in the Big Dance, then sent Coach K into retirement and the second-seeded Blue Devils back to Durham with an unforgettable 81-77 defeat.

It’s important to remember that such upsets have been the relatively rare exceptions to a long-standing trend. Indeed, ESPN Analytics gives this year’s UNC squad only a 21 percent chance of springing an upset on Saturday.

A little more than a month ago, when the unranked Tar Heels visited #2 Duke, they got absolutely annihilated.

The Blue Devils led 47-25 at the half, shot 50 percent or better from both the field and 3-point range, and turned the ball over only eight times. UNC rallied in the second half, making the final score 87-70, but the game’s outcome had become clear before the break. In particular, Carolina had no answer for Flagg (21 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, three steals, two blocks) or the Devils’ other top freshman, Kon Knueppel (22 points, five rebounds, five assists).

The Tar Heels who visited Durham were in the midst of an ugly stretch in which they lost five of seven games.

The Tar Heels who will host Duke in Chapel Hill on Saturday have won six consecutive contests, albeit entirely against teams with losing records in conference play. Despite that winning streak, most bracketologists believe UNC needs at least one more high-impact victory (on Saturday and/or next week at the ACC Tournament) to rise above this year’s NCAA Tournament bubble.

So, which version of Carolina will show up at the Smith Center this weekend?

While Davis didn’t answer any direct questions about Duke after the Tar Heels’ most recent victory, at Virginia Tech, he did discuss his team’s upward trends in recent weeks.

“We just have a number of guys that are settled and very confident and playing at a high level at the same time,” Davis said. “We’ve got a number of guys that are at the highest in terms of confidence and comfort out there, in terms of their role and what they need to do out there on the floor.”

CAROLINA-DUKE RIVALRY

Unranked Team Beats Top-10 Team

(Either Direction; 1980-81 To 2024-25)

Jan. 17, 1990: UNC 79, #8 Duke 60 in Chapel Hill (Dean Smith*-Mike Krzyżewski)

March 4, 1990: UNC 87, #5 Duke 75 in Durham (Dean Smith*-Mike Krzyzewski)

March 9, 2003: UNC 82, #10 Duke 79 in Chapel Hill (Matt Doherty-Mike Krzyzewski)

Feb. 20, 2014: UNC 74, #5 Duke 66 in Chapel Hill (Roy Williams^-Mike Krzyzewski)

March 5, 2022: UNC 94, #4 Duke 81 in Durham (Hubert Davis-Mike Krzyzewski)

April 2, 2022: UNC 81, #9 Duke 77 in New Orleans (Hubert Davis-Mike Krzyzewski)

*—Davis was a UNC player in these games

^—Davis was a UNC assistant coach in this game

NOTE: The top-10 teams are 21-6 over the unranked underdogs during these 45 seasons.

David Glenn (DavidGlennShow.com, @DavidGlennShow) is an award-winning author, broadcaster, editor, entrepreneur, publisher, speaker, writer and university lecturer (now at UNC Wilmington) who has covered sports in North Carolina since 1987.

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