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Rutgers Game Preview & How to Watch
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Washington hosts a star-studded but struggling Rutgers squad
Date: Wednesday, 2/19/25
Tip-Off Time: 7:30 pm PT
TV: B1G Network
Streaming: Foxsportsgo.com
Radio: Huskies Gameday App, Sports Radio KJR
Location: Seattle, WA
Betting Line: Washington Huskies -2
Record: 12-14 (5-10)
Points For per Game: 79.7 ppg (42nd)
Points Against per Game: 73.5 ppg (214th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 114.9 (66th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 103.5 (94th)
Strength of Schedule: 63rd
G- Dylan Harper, Fr. 6’6, 215: 18.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.0 apg, 47.7% FG, 32.1% 3pt, 73.8% FT
Harper is currently the presumptive #2 overall pick in the NBA Draft as a 6’6 point guard who can do a little bit of everything. He’s got a 27.5% assist rate and 14.4% turnover rate which is a great ratio for a true freshman (Zoom is 25 and 19 for comparison). The outside shooting is a bit of a struggle and below 30% in conference play but he is a superior finisher at the rim and elite at drawing fouls when he puts his head down and drives to the basket.
G- Jeremiah Williams, Sr. 6’4, 200: 6.9 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, 45.8% FG, 25.0% 3pt, 68.8% FT
Williams transferred in from Temple before last season and served as a capable backup guard in 2023-24 with a good assist to turnover ratio. His assist and turnover rates have flipped to go in the wrong direction this year though and he is still a poor outside shooter. The good news for Williams is he is hitting career bests in steal rate, free throw rate, and 2-point FG% so he’s not a complete zero. But he hasn’t been a plus offensive player in the aggregate.
F- Dylan Grant, Sr. 6’7, 205: 6.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 0.3 apg, 42.4% FG, 23.5% 3pt, 55.0% FT
Grant missed a fair bit of time at the beginning of the year but has now started the last 10 games for Rutgers. He broke out with 19 points at Maryland recently but otherwise hasn’t hit double figures in points over Rutgers’ past 8 games. He struggles with his shooting but has been a great offensive rebounder and is capable as a weakside shot blocker. Grant’s closest player profile in the KenPom database is the freshman year of former Husky Emmitt Matthews Jr.
F- Ace Bailey, Fr. 6’10, 200: 18.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 1.2 apg, 46.6% FG, 36.6% 3pt, 69.6% FT
Bailey began the year as the #2 overall freshman in the recruiting rankings but has seen his draft stock falter just a little. Given his size, frame, and ridiculous shot making ability there were always going to be comparisons to Kevin Durant. That’s way too high a bar. The 3 closest comparisons to Bailey’s season at KenPom were the freshman years for G.G Jackson, Jabari Smith, and Brandon Ingram; 2 of whom were drafted in the top-3 overall. He has been at least average in just about every category except as a passer where he started out the year as the ultimate black hole. Bailey’s assist numbers have picked up lately at the expense of his scoring with 7 assists but just 25 points in his last 3 games.
C- Lathan Sommerville, Fr. 6’10, 275: 7.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 0.6 bpg, 50.4% FG, 81.8% FT
One of Sommerville’s best comparisons is ex-Colorado bruiser Evan Battey and that’s certainly true from a body type standpoint. Sommerville is fine as a rebounder/shot blocker but for a full-time center is below what you’d ideally like to see. He doesn’t really shoot from 3-point range at all but is an exceptional free throw shooter which is a bit boost for the offense and allows him to play in crunch time.
It’s fair to say that this season has not gone anywhere close to as expected for Rutgers. They managed to pull off what seemed like a coup getting 2 of the top-3 recruits in the country to stay home and play at a school that is most certainly not a traditional power. This was going to be the year that Rutgers took a step forward and challenged to actually win a Big Ten title. About that…
Every indication is that Rutgers blew their entire NIL budget on the duo of Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey and had to cut corners everywhere else on the roster. Last year’s starting center transferred to Alabama. Their starting point guard transferred to Saint Joseph’s. Two other rotation players transferred to Nebraska and Miami Ohio and two key pieces graduated. In response Rutgers added just so-so transfers from Merrimack, Princeton, and Eastern Michigan so now this is a team of Harper/Bailey and a bunch of backup singers.
Both Harper and Bailey have been just about as advertised. Each is averaging about 18.5 points per game. Harper is averaging nearly 5 rebounds and 4 assists as a jumbo point guard and Bailey has chipped in 7+ rebounds and over a block per game as a stretch forward. Each has an argument to be one of the 10 best players in the conference.
No one else though has come close to proving they should be a starter on a tournament-level team. Freshman center Lathan Sommerville is 3rd on the team in both points and rebounds per game at 7.4 and 4.2 respectively. No one on the team playing at least 15 minutes per game is shooting over 37% from 3-point range. The 3 guards/wings who get the most playing time besides Bailey and Harper are each shooting 25% of worse from beyond the arc which destroys the spacing.
As a team then, despite Bailey and Harper, Rutgers ranks 185th or worse nationally in all of 2-pt, 3-pt, and FT percentage shooting. They generally avoid turnovers and Bailey and Harper can bail the team out with their isolation scoring but otherwise this is a wholly mediocre offensive attack.
The defense is only marginally better and again doesn’t really have any obvious strengths other than solid rim protection. Even then though, they don’t have a true dominant center blocking shots but merely several 6’10 bigs who are all good but not great shot blockers.
Rutgers has played one of the more challenging Big Ten slates, only slightly behind Washington, and their efficiency is fairly comparable. The Scarlet Knights are 16th in offensive efficiency in conference play, ahead of last place Washington, but Rutgers is last in effective field goal percentage. The offense has only been saved by fewer turnovers and better offensive rebounding.
The defense has also only been slightly better than Washington with Rutgers at 14th to UW’s 16th. They rank between 10th and 12th in the conference in almost every major defensive category except blocks.
The star power of Rutgers means that they can never be counted out completely. Three of Rutgers’ conference wins have come over teams ranked in the top-40 at KenPom including a road win at Nebraska. The Huskies can only claim one such victory when they beat Maryland at home. It’s entirely possible that Harper/Bailey go supernova and carry Rutgers to a victory.
But Rutgers is coming off a double-digit home loss to a struggling Iowa team and a bludgeoning at Oregon where they only scored 57 points and shot 21% from 3-point range while attempting 7 total free throws. Ace Bailey seems like he might be hitting the wall a bit, averaging just 8.3 points per game over Rutgers’ current 3-game losing streak. Coach Sprinkle noted that the Huskies have been battling a flu outbreak. If Washington has gotten healthy and plays a good game then this should be a win.
And it needs to be if Washington wants to finish outside the bottom-3 and thus qualify for the Big Ten tournament at the end of the year. The Huskies currently sit a game behind Rutgers in the standings. A win tonight would give Washington a tiebreaker against the other 4 teams at the bottom of the standings and almost guarantee that UW advances as long as they can merely tie for 15th place.
Washington Huskies- 76, Rutgers Scarlet Knights- 70
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Dylan Harper scores 34 to help Rutgers beat Washington 89-85 in OT
SEATTLE (AP) Dylan Harper scored 34 points – the freshman’s third game this season with at least 30 points – and Rutgers beat Washington 89-85 in overtime on Wednesday night in the first-ever meeting between the programs.
Ace Bailey finished 18 points and eight rebounds for Rutgers (13-14, 6-10 Big Ten) while playing through foul trouble. Jeremiah Williams added 13 points and three steals.
Harper made two free throws and Bailey split a pair of foul shots to give Rutgers an 84-81 lead with 1:59 to play. After a putback by Franck Kepnang made it a one-point game, Bailey grabbed an offensive rebound, was fouled and made both free throws to make it 86-83 with 1:07 remaining.
The teams combined for 2-of-15 shooting in overtime but Rutgers made 8 of 12 from the free-throw line, where the Knights outscored Washington 26-9.
Mekhi Mason and Vazoumana “Zoom” Diallo scored 20 points apiece for Washington (13-13, 4-10). Great Osobor and Tyler Harris each added 17.
Mason poked the ball away from Harper near midcourt and, after a scramble, it went out of bounds off the Knights. Williams stole the inbounds pass, was fouled by Osobor (his fifth to foul out) and made the first of two free throws to make it 81-all with 10 seconds left. After Williams missed the second, it went out of bounds off Washington, but Harper air-balled a potential winning 3-point shot at the buzzer.
The Scarlet Knights were the final Big Ten team that Washington – in its first season in the conference – had never played.
Rutgers returns home to play USC on Sunday. Washington also plays Sunday when the Huskies visit Iowa.
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