2025 NFL free agency: Five most overrated players available
NFL free agency can be a great way for teams to patch holes, fill in rosters or even add an occasional star. It’s also a place to make mistakes and sink money into players who won’t help for years to come.
The trick is knowing which players are which. Just like with the NFL draft, there’s no perfect formula to calculate how each player’s future will play out. But there are some indicators, which NFL teams are trying to identify as they plunge into the new league year and the madness of free agency. The negotiation period for free agents starts Monday, and signings can be made official Wednesday.
Ben Solak took the optimistic view on the 2025 class Thursday, picking out potential steals, so I’m playing the role of pessimist, identifying five players who I believe are overrated heading into free agency. It’s not to say they can’t work out, but acquiring teams should be careful about overpaying them this March. Let’s start with a player who’s getting all the buzz right now.
coverage:
Grading biggest deals | Best available free agents
Offense free agent tiers | Defense free agent tiers
14 underrated free agents
2024 team: Minnesota Vikings | Age entering 2025 season: 28
Darnold had a career season and some incredible moments that will be hard for talent evaluators to forget — this downfield touchdown throw on the run to Justin Jefferson against the Seahawks in Week 16 leaps to mind. But when you zoom out a little, I find the case for Darnold far less compelling.
The Vikings went 14-3 in 2024 because of their defense. Darnold ranked only 14th in QBR (60.4) in the regular season — his disastrous playoff performance wasn’t even included there — and the Vikings ranked 15th in offensive EPA per play. He managed that barely-above-average level of efficiency with an offensive playcaller in Kevin O’Connell who’s widely considered one of the best in the league. Darnold also had the benefit of arguably the league’s best wide receiver in Jefferson, a high-quality No. 2 in Jordan Addison and solid pass protection. He even played 54% of his snaps with the Vikings in the lead, the highest among all qualifying quarterbacks.
The consensus view of Darnold heading into the 2024 season was he was in the backup/bridge quarterback range, with potential below-average starter upside. We should update our beliefs based on new information, so I certainly view Darnold more favorably now than I did 12 months ago. But given that his numbers were more middling than great, despite the favorable circumstances around him, I think Darnold is a below-average starter. That’s not the type of player to whom I want to give a big multiyear guarantee.
2024 team: Buffalo Bills | Age entering 2025 season: 31
After averaging 2.2 and 2.5 yards per route run in 2022 and 2023, respectively, Cooper’s production significantly dropped off in 2024. He managed only 1.6 yards per route run this past season with the Browns and Bills, recording 547 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 44 receptions.
There are feasible reasons on the surface to explain Cooper’s down season. He was stuck with Deshaun Watson as his quarterback at the start of the year, he had to transition to a new offense midway through the season after being traded, and a wrist injury which kept him out of several games could have impacted his overall production. Then again, he barely produced with league MVP Josh Allen as his quarterback, catching only 20 passes for 297 yards and two touchdowns in eight regular-season games with Buffalo. His playoff performance wasn’t great either, as he caught six passes for 41 yards in three games.
I’m inclined to be bearish on Cooper going forward simply because he’s a 31-year-old receiver coming off a poor season. There’s a good chance he’ll never approach his 2023 form, when he made the Pro Bowl after catching 72 passes for 1,250 yards and five touchdowns.
Advanced numbers indicate a decline, too. Since 2020, Cooper’s open score in ESPN’s receiver scores has steadily dropped, going from 64 to 58 to 54 to 46 to 39 this season. And his overall score of 23 was tied for eighth-worst among wide receivers.
2024 team: Kansas City Chiefs | Age entering 2025 season: 27
Wharton played more in 2024 than he had in his previous four seasons, managing 8.5 combined sacks between the regular season and the playoffs. That sack total might net him a decent paycheck, but it comes with some large contextual red flags.
• Tracking every move | Grades (ESPN+)
• Our cheat sheet | Top 100 FAs (ESPN+)
• 14 steals (ESPN+) | 5 reaches (ESPN+)
• Barnwell tiers (ESPN+): Off. | Def.
• Free agent list | Franchise tags | More
For starters, his 7% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle doesn’t match the sack production, ranking 34th out of 47 qualifiers at the position. There are also two major factors which could have inflated his sack totals. He played on a Chiefs team that was often ahead (sacks are much more likely when opponents are forced into desperate passing situations to catch up) and he played next to Chris Jones, the best defensive tackle in football.
Though Jones had fewer sacks than Wharton this past season, his 16% pass rush win rate was more than double Wharton’s. Jones also attracted a high rate of double-teams when lined up at defensive tackle (69.9%), freeing up Wharton for a lower-than-average double-team rate of 53.3%.
All of this is to say Wharton — who also had a below-average run stop win rate in 2024 (29%) — could get an inflated price for a few sacks that might be difficult to repeat in a different situation.
2024 team: Pittsburgh Steelers | Age entering 2025 season: 27
Harris has been better in Years 3 and 4 of his career, but I think his reputation is still coasting off being drafted in the first round in 2021. If I told you there was an available running back who averaged 3.9 yards per carry over more than 1,000 career attempts, had negative rush yards over expectation in three out of four seasons (per NFL Next Gen Stats) and didn’t produce any exceptional receiving numbers, what would that player be worth to you? I don’t think the answer should be very much.
There have been 32 running backs over the past decade with at least 1,000 carries, and Harris’ 3.9 yards per carry ranks 30th among that group. His 2.0 yards after contact per carry last season was slightly above average, but it was worse than teammate Jaylen Warren and frankly not anything to write home about.
Harris does offer availability — he has started and played every regular-season game of his career (68) — but his overall numbers are not that far from replacement level. I imagine some team is going to pay him expecting a bit more than that.
2024 team: New Orleans Saints | Age entering 2025 season: 26
Predicting future cornerback play quantitatively is always tricky — the position has high year-to-year variance and nearest defender metrics contain plenty of noise. However, there are better places to look for signals than others.
Get your favorite live sports, stories and originals with ESPN+, Disney+ and Hulu. Upgrade to a Disney Bundle plan and start streaming something for everyone today!
Adebo has some gaudy numbers. Thanks in part to seven interceptions over the past two seasons, he has a remarkable minus-49 expected points added when targeted as the nearest defender in that span. That is excellent, but targeted EPA has almost no year-to-year correlation with itself. The more stable cornerback metrics — which aren’t really that stable — are target rate and yards per coverage snap. Adebo doesn’t fare so well in those categories.
No outside corner with at least 200 coverage snaps this past season was targeted more frequently than Adebo (21%). Granted, Adebo’s season was shortened by a broken right femur, but he has had an above-average target rate in each his four NFL seasons and an above-average yards per coverage snap in three years. When in doubt, I’d always rather look for corners who opponents aren’t throwing at consistently.
I know Solak had Adebo on his underrated free agent list, but I’ll stick with my numbers and fade Adebo. Maybe Solak and I can wager on Adebo’s 2025 campaign?
Check out the stats behind Seahawks WR DK Metcalf being traded to the Steelers. (1:03)
PITTSBURGH — The Steelers cannonballed into free agency Sunday night, acquiring wide receiver DK Metcalf from the Seattle Seahawks for a 2025 second-round pick and agreeing to a five-year, $150 million extension, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
The Steelers and Seahawks also are flipping 2025 picks in the sixth and seventh rounds, sources said.
Metcalf, the 27-year-old 2019 second-round pick, requested a trade on March 5 as he entered the final year of a three-year, $72 million extension signed in 2022. He previously had one year left on his contract worth $18 million, but the Steelers worked quickly to secure their new wideout to a deal worth $30 million annually.
That figure puts him in rare air among wide receivers and among Steelers free agents. Only six other wideouts have contracts currently valued for at least $30 million annually, and before Metcalf’s extension, the most the Steelers had spent on an outside free agent was linebacker Patrick Queen’s three-year, $41 million contract signed last free agency.
Metcalf’s trade comes only a few days after the Seahawks dealt quarterback Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders. Following both trades, the Seahawks have five picks in the first three rounds of the 2025 draft: Nos. 18, 50, 52 (via Pittsburgh), 82 and 92 (via Las Vegas).
In Metcalf, the Steelers finally landed their long-sought-after big-play receiver to round out a wide receiver room that lacked depth and star power behind 2022 second-round pick George Pickens. Metcalf averaged 15.0 yards per reception and 66.1 yards per game in 2024, collecting 66 receptions, 992 receiving yards and a career-low five touchdowns.
Metcalf was more productive in the first six games of the season, averaging nine targets in the Seahawks’ first six games. But after hurting an MCL in Week 7, Metcalf missed two games and averaged just under six targets per game over the rest of the season.
Since the Seahawks traded up to snag Metcalf out of Ole Miss with the final pick of the second round in the 2019 draft, the big-bodied wideout has averaged 1,054 receiving yards and eight touchdowns per season along with 14.4 yards per reception. Meanwhile, Pickens — the Steelers’ top receiver — averaged 64.3 yards per game and 15.3 yards per catch in 2024 during his third season in Pittsburgh. He also caught three touchdowns in an injury-shortened season.
Steelers wide receivers George Pickens, Calvin Austin and DK Metcalf finished in the top 10 among 138 qualified players in yards per reception in 2024.
The next most productive wide receiver on the Steelers’ 2024 roster was fellow 2022 draft pick Calvin Austin III, who averaged 15.2 yards per reception and finished the year with just 548 receiving yards and four touchdowns.
The Steelers’ pursuit of a top-tier wide receiver dates back to the previous offseason when they were in the mix for 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk, however, opted to remain in San Francisco with a four-year, $120 million deal. The Steelers also landed wide receiver Mike Williams at the trade deadline from the New York Jets in exchange for a 2025 fifth-round pick, but Williams wasn’t a major contributor after a game-winning catch against the Washington Commanders less than a week after being traded.
Though the Steelers significantly upgraded their wide receiver room with the Metcalf acquisition, they still don’t have a quarterback under contract for the 2025 season. Both Justin Fields and Russell Wilson are slated to be free agents when the new league year opens on Wednesday afternoon, and sources told ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler that Fields wants to test the market before making an informed decision.
Wilson and Metcalf both starred together in Seattle, with the Wilson serving as Metcalf’s quarterback for the first three seasons of his career.
The Jets have also expressed interest in the former Bears first-round pick, sources indicated to Fowler. Steelers general manager Omar Khan told reporters at the NFL Combine the team’s top priority was sorting out the quarterback position, but Metcalf requested a trade earlier this week, expediting the Steelers’ roster-building timeline.
ESPN’s Brady Henderson contributed to this report.
NBA
NCAAM
ESPN
Sam Darnold, QB
EDITOR’S PICKS
14 players who could be underrated signings in free agency: Why there’s value at corner
4dBen Solak
Grading NFL trades, signings: Let’s make sense of deals for Christian Kirk, Geno Smith and Deebo Samuel
2dSeth Walder
Tracking NFL free agency: Live updates on every signing, trade, cut and rumor
21mESPN staff
Amari Cooper, WR
Tershawn Wharton, DT
What to know for NFL free agency
Najee Harris, RB
Paulson Adebo, CB
EDITOR’S PICKS
Seahawks to re-sign key LB Jones, source says
2hBrady Henderson
Let’s grade the Raiders’ trade for Geno Smith: Why there’s a lot of risk — on both sides
2dSeth Walder
Grading NFL trades, signings: Let’s make sense of deals for Christian Kirk, Geno Smith and Deebo Samuel
2dSeth Walder
Deep Ball Receivers
| Yards/Rec | ||
|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 22.3 | |
| Jameson Williams | 17.3 | |
| Rashod Bateman | 16.8 | |
| A.J. Brown | 16.1 | |
| Calvin Ridley | 15.9 | |
| Jayden Reed | 15.6 | |
| Darnell Mooney | 15.5 | |
| >>George Pickens | 15.3 | |
| >>Calvin Austin III | 15.2 | |
| >>DK Metcalf | 15.0 | |
| Josh Palmer | 15.0 | |
| >>Now on Steelers | ||
Davante Adams joining Rams: Six-time Pro Bowler signing two-year deal with Los Angeles
Davante Adams is headed to Hollywood. The six-time Pro Bowler and possible future Hall of Fame receiver is signing a two-year deal with the Los Angeles Rams, the team announced.
The signing of Adams makes sense for the Rams, who are in the midst of trying to trade former All-Pro wideout Cooper Kupp. With Kupp on his way out the door, the signing of Adams gives veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford another proven veteran wideout to throw to.
Adams, 32, spent the first eight years of his career with the Packers, where he put up prolific numbers while catching passes for future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Adams earned his sixth and most recent Pro Bowl nod as a member of the Raiders, where he spent two-plus seasons before he was traded to the Jets prior to last year’s deadline.
Last season, Adams caught 85 passes for 1,063 yards and eight touchdowns in 14 games. During the 2024 season, Adams eclipsed 11,000 career receiving yards. He also became only the 12th receiver in history to catch over 100 career touchdowns.
Adams will now resume his career with the Rams, who are hoping to compile at least one more Super Bowl run with Stafford under center.
© 2004-2025 CBS Interactive. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
CBS Sports is a registered trademark of CBS Broadcasting Inc. Commissioner.com is a registered trademark of CBS Interactive Inc.
The content on this site is for entertainment purposes only and CBS Sports makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event. There is no gambling offered on this site. This site contains commercial content and CBS Sports may be compensated for the links provided on this site.
Images by Getty Images and Imagn
