NHL On Tap: Kucherov, Lightning host Sabres, seek 10th win in 11 games
Canadiens visit Oilers going for 6th victory in row; MacKinnon on roll at home for Avalanche
© Mark LoMoglio/NHLI
Welcome to the NHL On Tap, a daily look at the games on the NHL schedule. There are nine games on the schedule for Thursday, including two nationally televised in the United States.
Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning (7 p.m. ET; ESPN)
The Lightning (36-21-4) have won nine of their past 10 games powered by Nikita Kucherov, who is third in the NHL in scoring and second in assists (90 points; 28 goals, 62 assists in 58 games) after the forward had a goal and two assists in a 6-2 win against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Tuesday. Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand each is expected to be in the lineup for Tampa Bay; the forwards were acquired from the Seattle Kraken as part of a three-team trade also involving the Detroit Red Wings on Wednesday. Gourde won the Stanley Cup twice with the Lightning twice (2020 and 2021) before being selected by the Kraken in the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. The Sabres (24-30-6) have lost four straight (0-3-1) following a 6-2 loss to the San Jose Sharks on Tuesday. Forward JJ Peterka has eight points (three goals, five assists) in a six-game point streak for Buffalo, including a goal and an assist Tuesday, and Rasmus Dahlin needs one point to reach 50 for the fourth time in his NHL career and pass John Van Boxmeer (three) for second most 50-point seasons among defensemen in Sabres history, behind Phil Housley (eight).
Montreal Canadiens at Edmonton Oilers (9 p.m. ET; RDS, TSN2, SNW)
The Canadiens (30-26-5) seek their sixth straight victory, which would be their longest winning streak since also winning six in a row from Feb. 25-March 7, 2017. Captain Nick Suzuki has 13 points (four goals, nine assists) during a five-game point streak for Montreal, including a goal and three assists in a 4-3 overtime win against the Buffalo Sabres on Monday. The Canadiens trail the Ottawa Senators and New York Rangers by two points for the second wild card into the playoffs from the Eastern Conference. Center Leon Draisaitl has 18 points (10 goals, eight assists) in a 12-game point streak for the Oilers (35-22-4), who are 1-6-0 in their past seven games and 3-7-1 in their past 11. Draisaitl and captain Connor McDavid each had a power-play goal and assist in a 6-2 loss to the Anaheim Ducks on Tuesday.
San Jose Sharks at Colorado Avalanche (9:30 p.m. ET; ESPN)
NHL points leader Nathan MacKinnon (93 points; 23 goals, 70 assists in 62 games) looks to extend a 17-game home point streak (27 points; 10 goals, 17 assists) for the Avalanche (36-24-2), who seek their fourth straight win. MacKinnon had two assists in a 4-1 win against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Tuesday. Colorado holds the first wild card into the playoffs from the Western Conference and is two points behind the Minnesota Wild for third place in the Central Division. Forward Tyler Toffoli has scored in three straight games for the Sharks (17-37-9), who have won two in a row and earned points in four of their past five (2-1-2), including a 6-2 win at the Sabres on Tuesday. Forward Will Smith had a goal and an assist in the victory and became the second San Jose rookie to reach 30 points (11 goals, 19 assists) this season, behind center Macklin Celebrini (45 points; 19 goals, 26 assists). Celebrini needs one goal to become the ninth NHL player to score 20 goals as an 18-year-old since 1989-90.
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Utah Hockey Club at Detroit Red Wings (7 p.m. ET; FDSNDET, Utah16)
Utah (27-25-9) faces the Red Wings (30-25-6) for the first time and looks to rebound from a 3-1 loss against the New Jersey Devils on Saturday that ended a three-game winning streak. Captain Clayton Keller is one assist shy of 300 in his NHL career (487 points; 188 goals, 299 assists in 580 games). Detroit looks to end a three-game losing streak in which they’ve been outscored 12-6; the Red Wings are one point behind the Senators and Rangers for the second wild card in the East.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Florida Panthers (7 p.m. ET; FDSNOH, SCRIPPS)
The Panthers (38-21-3), tied with the Toronto Maple Leafs for the Atlantic Division lead, go for their fifth straight win, after acquiring goalie Vitek Vanecek in a trade with the the Sharks on Tuesday. Center Adam Fantilli will try to extend a six-game point streak (seven points; three goals, four assists) for the Blue Jackets (30-23-8), who hold the first wild card in the East and had a four-game winning streak end in a 6-2 loss at Lightning on Tuesday.
Winnipeg Jets at Philadelphia Flyers (7 p.m. ET; NBCSP, TSN3)
The Western Conference-leading Jets (42-16-4) attempt to end a three-game losing streak (0-2-1) and avenge a 2-1 shootout loss to the Flyers (27-27-8) on Saturday. Philadelphia will try to sweep the two-game season series from Winnipeg and rebound from a 6-3 loss to the Calgary Flames on Tuesday that halted a five-game point streak (4-0-1). Center Noah Cates had a goal in the defeat and has six points (four goals, two assists) in a four-game point streak. Forward Matvei Michkov had an assist, tying him with Celebrini for second in assists (26) among NHL rookies behind Canadiens defenseman Lane Hutson (44).
Boston Bruins at Carolina Hurricanes (7 p.m. ET; FDSNO, NESN, SNP, SNO, SNE, TVAS)
The Hurricanes (36-22-4), second in the Metropolitan Division, begin a four-game homestand winners of three of their past four games. Forward Mikko Rantanen is two assist from 400 in his NHL career (687 points; 289 goals, 398 assists in 631 games). The Bruins (28-27-8) are 1-5-2 in their past eight games following a 6-3 loss to the Nashville Predators on Tuesday; Boston is three points out of the second wild card in the East.
Seattle Kraken at Nashville Predators (8 p.m. ET; FDSNSO, KHN, KONG)
Forward Michael Bunting could make his debut with the Predators (22-32-7) after he was acquired in a trade with the Penguins with a fourth-round pick in the 2026 NHL Draft for defenseman Luke Schenn and forward Tommy Novak on Wednesday. The Kraken (26-32-4) have lost three of four following a a 4-3 defeat to the Wild on Tuesday.
Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars (8 p.m. ET; Victory+, SN1)
The Stars (40-19-2), six points back of the Jets for the Central Division lead, will try to sweep a four-game homestand and win their seventh straight game at American Airlines Center. Center Roope Hintz enters the game with 14 points (three goals, 11 assists) in a five-game point streak for Dallas that includes four multipoint games. The Flames (29-23-9), tied with the Vancouver Canucks for the second wild card in the West, have points in five of their past seven (3-2-2) after a 6-3 win at the Flyers on Tuesday.
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Is there instant chemistry? Do teams need an adjustment period?
For our purposes here: Does a new acquisition have an immediate impact on game outcomes compared to odds expectations?
It’s going to be a relevant question in the coming days as the NHL trade deadline continues to bring change across the league. In fact, one of the featured games tonight is going to have some fresh (and fresh-again) faces in the Tampa Bay Lightning lineup.
How have teams fared this season when skaters make their debuts with new teams.
There have been 41 such games this season, eight of which have featured more than one player in their first game since a team switch. But one of those eight has included skaters on both sides of the puck — Tuesday’s matchup between the Avalanche (Ryan Lindgren) and the Penguins (Vladislav Kolyachonok). In the other 40 instances, only one team was integrating new talent.
So, what’s the trend? At a broad level, it’s a coin flip. Teams with a debuting player have won 20 times and lost 20 times. The puck line tilts slightly in their favor at 24-16, but not dramatically.
Interestingly, the more high-profile the acquisition, the worse the initial impact seems to be.
Of the 11 instances where a newly acquired player ranked among the top 300 in points, their new team won only four times and covered the puck line just three times.
Narrowing that further to players currently top 200 in points (essentially those with at least 30 points), we get a small group: Mikko Rantanen, J.T. Miller, Martin Necas, Mikael Granlund, Morgan Frost, and Kaapo Kakko. Among them, only Granlund’s Dallas Stars won and covered the puck line in his debut. Every other team with a big-name addition lost.
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Enter Oliver Bjorkstrand. With 37 points, he qualifies as one of the more impactful acquisitions this season. Based on this recent trend, that could put the Lightning at a disadvantage. Notably, the team welcoming a new player was favored in all six of the previous high-profile debut games.
However, there’s a twist: Yanni Gourde is also making his return. He doesn’t hit the 30-point threshold, but had he been healthy, he likely would have. More importantly, he’s returning to familiar territory, having won Stanley Cups with Tampa in 2020 and 2021.
For context, when teams have debuted multiple new acquisitions, they’ve gone 3-4 against both the money line and puck line.
The Sabres may be just 6-17 as road underdogs (11-12 against the puck line), but given the history of slow integrations, they have a puncher’s chance. The +1.5 (-130) puck line and +190 money line offer intriguing value.
7 p.m., Amalie Arena
Watch live on ESPN.
Lightning (-1.5, +105), -240 money line
Sabres (+1.5, -125), +200 money line
Total 6.5: (Over -105, Under -115)
Jason Zucker has missed four straight, allowing Alex Tuch to resume duty on the top power-play unit. Put Tuch down for over 0.5 total power-play points (+325) given the advantageous odds and elevated chance.
There are props available for all four of the Sabres top defensemen in blocked shots and it’s tempting to take the under with any or all of them
Mattias Samuelsson O/U 1.5 blocks (O -172 | U +125)
Rasmus Dahlin O/U 1.5 blocks (O -119 | U -114)
Owen Power O/U 1.5 blocks (O -109 | U -125)
Bowen Byram O/U 1.5 blocks (O -114 | U -119)
Top-four defenders have averaged 1.56 blocked shots against the Lightning this season and opponents D have blocked a total of 11.9 per game against Tampa Bay (27th in the league).
9:30 p.m., Ball Arena
Watch live on ESPN.
Avalanche (-2.5, +115), -425 money line
Sharks (+2.5, -135), +320 money line
Total 6.5: (Over +105, Under -125)
At the start of the season when we mentioned matchups between Alexandar Georgiev and Mackenzie Blackwood in the crease, it had a much different feeling. This is the second such clash between the goaltenders since they were swapped for each other in December; Blackwood and the Avs won the first one 4-2 on Dec. 19. The duel prior to that was on Dec. 17, 2023, with Georgiev and the Avs winning 6-2.
There have only been 13 games this season with a spread total at 2.5 and only 14 games this season with a money line favorite at -425 or greater. This contest will make it 14 and 15.
The underdog has beaten that 2.5 spread 10 out of the 13 games. The Sharks, specifically, have beaten the 2.5 spread against them five out of six times.
As for the massive money line, the team with the -425 or greater odds has won 12 out of 14 times, with the Anaheim Ducks responsible for the two upsets. The Sharks have lost six of six on such occasions.
Let’s go Sharks for the +2.5 (-135) spread and Avs on the money line (-425). But you knew that already.
With 986 games on the books, it’s time to check in on the dollar-derby tests.
The only consistent macro bet with a positive gain this season would have been putting $1 on every 6.5 game to be under ($234.00 on 279 wins and lost $199 for a net result of $35.00). But they continue to be fewer and further between, with an increasing percentage of the games given a 5.5 total (65.8 percent since 2025).
But 5.5s have no advantageous global trend:
Our season-long project to see what would happen if you bet $1 on every below probability.
We only start to get some of the more global trends starting to approach even when we bring in additional criteria:
What would your result be if you bet $1 on each of the below scenarios.
You can see that home favorites and home underdogs aren’t quite the vig-delivery machines for sportsbooks, but it’s not like there is a set and forget option emerging anywhere.
Dave Roberts and the Los Angeles Dodgers are closing in on a long-term extension, sources confirmed to ESPN on Thursday.
Roberts and the Dodgers have been in serious talks on a new deal since the start of February. Despite being far apart in some stretches along the way, the two sides are expected to lock in a new deal before the Dodgers head to Japan to open their season Wednesday.
The largest contract among managers currently belongs to Craig Counsell, who signed a five-year, $40 million deal when he left the Milwaukee Brewers for the Chicago Cubs in November 2023. Roberts’ new deal has been widely expected throughout the industry to top Counsell’s in either years or total value, if not both.
Roberts, 52, is heading into his 10th season with the Dodgers, which is also the final season of his contract. His deal would come on the heels of his second World Series championship in five years, including a title at the end of the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season.
During that time, Roberts had also led the Dodgers to four National League pennants, eight division titles and a .627 regular-season winning percentage, the highest ever.
The New York Post was first to report the news on Roberts’ extension.
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Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning
San Jose Sharks at Colorado Avalanche
| Wins | Winning amount | Losing amount | Net winnings | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OVER 6.5 | 199 | $196.34 | $279 | $-82.66 |
| UNDER 6.5 | 279 | $234.00 | $199 | $35.00 |
| OVER 5.5 | 260 | $216.40 | $248 | -$31.60 |
| UNDER 5.5 | 248 | $251.82 | $260 | -$8.18 |
| Favorite Money Line | 382 | $354.29 | $401 | -$46.71 |
| Underdog Money Line | 401 | $558.69 | $585 | -$26.31 |
| Favorite Spread | 382 | $574.55 | $604 | -$29.45 |
| Underdog Spread | 604 | $334.69 | $382 | -$47.31 |
| Wins | Winning amount | Losing amount | Net winnings | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorite spread | 248 | $360.28 | $363 | -$2.72 |
| Home underdog spread | 241 | $127.53 | $134 | -$6.47 |
| Road favorite spread | 134 | $214.27 | $241 | -$26.73 |
| Road underdog spread | 363 | $207.16 | $248 | -$40.84 |
Sabres at Lightning Game Preview: Keep the wins coming
Game Sixty-two: Buffalo Sabres (24-30-6) at Tampa Bay Lightning (36-21-4)
Time: 7:00 PM EST
Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa
TV/Stream/Radio: ESPN, 102.5 FM, Lightning App
Odds: Lightning -225
Know the Opponents: Die by the Blade
It’s going to be an interesting night tonight. First off, the Tampa fans get to welcome their two new players as Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand are scheduled to make their debuts for the team (well, return debut in the case of Gourde). The team has been on a roll with just about every part of their game clicking, and they’re going up against a Buffalo team that has, well, not had a great season.
The Sabres are mired in last place in the Eastern Conference, a full four points clear of 15th place Pittsburgh. It’s going to be their fourteenth consecutive season without a playoff appearance, and it’s going to be 18 years since they had a playoff win. They’re coming off of a loss one of the few teams with a worse record then they have, the San Jose Sharks, on home ice, and they look absolutely rudderless right now. Chances are, some of the veterans won’t be on the charter flight back from Sunrise on Saturday as they will be dealt by Friday’s deadline.
It’s so bad, even their television broadcast crew is taking shots (NSFW language)
So, the Lightning win this one going away, right? In today’s NHL not necessarily. It’s a fine line between good and bad in this league and the Lightning can’t just throw their sticks on the ice and expect a win, even against a team that is looking at their draft position instead of the playoffs. Buffalo is also looking to show their coach that his assessment of their game against San Jose was wrong.
“Too many passengers. They [San Jose] won the compete, they won the puck-play game. Our puck-play was awful. Just too many guys took the night off,” is how Lindy Ruff put it after the 6-2 loss.
The two-game swing through the state of Florida will be a big test for a team that will look different following the trade deadline, but is still composed of what the organization hopes is a young, solid core. Expect them to show a little pride and come out flying tonight.
J.J. Peterka has been a bright spot in a terrible season as the 23-year-old has 8 points (3 goals, 5 assists) in his last 6 games and is on his way to another 50+ point season. Tage Thompson is healthy and doing Tage Thompson things with 30 goals in 54 games. Trade Deadline darling Alex Tuch is second on the team with 23 goals while Rasmus Dahlin is almost at a point-per-game from the blueline with 49 points in 52 games.
The word of the day from the Lightning following their win against Columbus on Tuesday was “commitment”. Their recent winning ways have been highlighted by a renewed commitment to defense, and they’re going to have to keep that going against the Sabres. They have their playoff spot, now it’s time to focus on home ice with Toronto and Florida in their sights.
While the offense is nice, it’s the six straight games allowing two goals or less that makes Coach Jon Cooper the happiest. Considering the fact that it’s come against some of the league’s best offenses in Florida, Washington, and Columbus is an even better indicator that this team is build better for the playoffs than last year’s edition. The additions of Gourde and Bjorkstrand should only make them a tougher team to play against, but they can’t take the foot off of the gas right now.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forwards:
[updated based on morning skate]
Defense:
Goaltenders:
Buffalo Sabres
Forwards:
Defense:
Goaltenders:
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