‘Captain America: Brave New World’ Barreling Toward $90M+ 4-Day, ‘Paddington In Peru’ $15M+ – Box Office Update
By Anthony D’Alessandro
UPDATED, Friday midday: It’s Valentine’s Day and even though there aren’t any female skewing movies on the marquee such as Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, it’s still bound to be a big moviegoing day even though we have the dude-skewing Captain America: Brave New World. The Anthony Mackie movie is expected to do around $39M today, which includes last night’s $12M, on its way to a 4-day of $90M+. Three-day is around $82M-$84M at 4,105. Day one for Captain America: Brave New World is higher than the first day/previews of Captain America: Winter Soldier which came in at $36.9M.
Oh, and Winter Storm Jett in the Northeast hasn’t closed theaters. And that mega rainstorm in LA dried up pretty quickly.
Even moms and kids are heading to matinees today with 24% K-12 off today and another 88% out on Monday per the Comscore school calendar. That puts StudioCanal/Sony’s Paddington in Peru at $4.5M today, including last night’s $600K, for what’s looking like $12M-$13M for Fri-Sun, and $15M+ for the 4-day at 3,890 theaters.
Third is the third weekend of Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Dog Man at 3,334 with $2.7M today, $10M for the weekend (-28%) and 4-day of $13M and a running cume of $70M.
Screen Gems/Spyglass’ Heart Eyes is eyeing around $3M+, around $7M for the 3-day and about $8M for the 4-day at 3,102 theaters in its second frame. The question is how steep is the fall-off after today? At this level, the 3-day is mindblowing at -16% hold, quite rare for a R-rated horror movie. Running cume by EOD Monday is just under $20M.
Fifth is the Chinese animated movie which is cleaning up in the Middle Kingdom, Ne Zha 2 which is looking at $3.2M today, $5.9M for the 3-day and $6.5M for the 4-day. At $1.37 billion in China, it’s the third best animated film ever worldwide per Nancy.
UPDATED, Friday AM: Disney/Marvel Studios‘ Captain America: Brave New World came in where we spotted it — $12 million in previews.
StudioCanal/Sony’s Paddington in Peru clocked $600,000 yesterday. Keep in mind it’s a family movie. Thursday night previews started at 2 p.m. at 3,133 locations. The movie notched a great PostTrak scores of 4 stars for general, 4 1/2 stars for kids under 12, and a Rotten Tomatoes critics score of 94%. The hope is that the four-day total is around $15M.
The first Paddington had a three-day total of $18.9M, while Paddington 2 posted $11M. Quorum believes the 3-day for the threequel is $12M-$15M (update). The pic has already cleared $104M abroad with $19M from Sony’s offshore territories.
PREVIOUS EXCLUSIVE: Neither Los Angeles rain nor Northeast snow are keeping audiences away from cinemas Thursday night as Disney/Marvel Studios’ Captain America: Brave New World, a continuation of both Disney+ series The Falcon and the Winter Soldier and 2008’s The Incredible Hulk, is eyeing $12 million after previews that began at 2 p.m. today.
Where does that stack up to other MCU titles? Well, it’s higher than 2014’s Captain America: Winter Soldier, which collected $10.2M in previews on its way to a $95M opening.
It’s also under the $17.5M previews of the last MCU title over Presidents’ Day weekend, 2023’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which made its way to a $106.1M three-day total and $120.3M 4-day. Brave New World isn’t expected to traverse to Quantumania levels, with tracking pegging a $80M 3-day and $94M 4-day. Brave New World was always a grounded action film, nothing in the multiverse sense of the word, selling itself entire on Red Hulk (how appropriate for Valentine’s Day).
Bad news: Rotten Tomatoes critics got antsy while watching the Anthony Mackie movie, giving it a 52% critics score. Better news: Audiences on Thursday night gave it a tolerable 79% on RT. Early PostTrak from fans was a mixed bag at 3 stars, with kids under 12 loving the movie at 4 1/2 stars (62% boys). Audience make-up was 71% males, 29% female. Diversity demos were 32% Caucasian, 28% Hispanic and Latino, 19% Black and 15% Asian. Best scores came from women over 25 (71% grade), who were the second-biggest audience last night at 21% behind men over 25 at 56% who gave the Mackie movie a 64% grade.
Social media analytics corp RelishMix reports the social media universe for the Julius Onah-directed movie stands at just under 600 million, which is an average figure for superhero movies; Brave New World is running 21% below genre norms across TikTok, Facebook, X, YouTube and Instagram combined. Ya wanna know what the social media reach was for Deadpool & Wolverine before opening? Try 1.15 billion followers. Even Thor: Love & Thunder was at a high 963M-plus before that pic projected onto the screen to a massive $144.1M three-day opening in July 2022.
Mostly all of the cast on this Captain America are social and activated, except for non-social Harrison Ford. Mackie counted 5.4M fans across all platforms before opening, Liv Tyler stood at 7.2M, while Giancarlo Esposito was at 4M.
As far as chatter online, RelishMix says it’s mixed on Brave New World. Some fans are excited to see Mackie picking up the shield from Chris Evans, and who are destined to go because of Red Hulk. But “negative-leaning chatter on Captain America: Brave New World hears trembles from fans who feel Marvel has lost its way. Comments include, ‘I remember a time when I used to get hyped for a Marvel film. I saw this poster (and trailer) and felt nothing.’ and ‘I want the film to do well, but I can’t shake the feeling that this movie is just being sent out there to die. Prove me wrong, Disney.’ The jumps in tone are turning some off, sharing, ‘It’s nuts how this movie is simultaneously playing up the ‘grizzled espionage’ angle from Winter Soldier, but is also like CLAP FOR RED HULK,’ while others are pessimistically curious in the character of Sabra, given the character’s ties to Israel in the comics with the current geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.”
We’ll have more for you in Friday, when Brave New World opens in 4,100 theatres, including 400 Imax auditoriums, 950 Premium Large Format screens, 2,500+ 3D locations, 325 D-Box/4D motion screens and 100 ScreenX locations.
Disney didn’t respond to Deadline’s comment on the projections we were hearing tonight.
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If Cap 4 does make $82-$84m over 3 days, it’s definitely going to make more than $90m over the 4-day holiday weekend. It’s definitely doing more than just $6-$8m on Monday. I think it’s likely going to make somewhere between $95-$100m over the 4-day weekend.
Well, you’re wrong.
But even if it does make it to $100 million and $200 million worldwide for opening weekend, it will still be a flop.
That’s not how it works. A movie isn’t a flop based on its opening weekend but rather it’s entire theatrical run. Making 200 mil globally its opening weekend pretty much guarantees that it’s not going to flop since that would already be reaching it’s budget numbers. In order to flop with that kind of start in would have to drop dramatically in the following weeks.
Flop.
Sorry but Cap 4, for bad luck, is the anti-zeitgeist.
Everyone here discussing box office & financial comps…. question: who cares? is it your money?
How bout discussing whether the movie is any good. I was hoping to see if I was alone in thinking it was by far, by far, the worst movie I’ve seen in many years.
This is an industry site so it’s natural to discuss the business aspects. There are 10,000 sites where people give their opinions about the movie quality and have no interest in the box office except as a means of keeping score.
Bad quality of the movie was known for a while (complete re-shoots, writers and directors changes) , box office is the only thing that is interesting right now.
It is from the director of The Cloverfield Paradox after all.
It is?!
Oh thanks man, you’ve convinced me not to go see it and save my money!
Man paradox sucked!
LMAAAAAAAAOOOOOOOOO
In 2014 the tickets were:
cheaper
previews were scheduled for EVENININGS
and now it’s the 4th movie
Disney you screwed it up
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Review: Anthony Mackie’s Captain America deserves better than ‘Brave New World’
“Captain America: Brave New World” never reaches the heights of other Marvel movies starring a guy with a star-spangled shield. It does turn Harrison Ford into a ruby-red rage monster, though, so it didn’t totally fail the assignment.
A veteran of the Marvel Cinematic Universe for a decade now, Anthony Mackie faithfully has taken the Captain America mantle from Chris Evans and given Cap new swagger and vulnerability. He’s not the problem with director Julius Onah’s geopolitically tinged “Brave New World” (★★½ out of four; rated PG-13; in theaters now). That culprit is an unruly narrative that starts as a paranoia thriller (a la “Captain America: The Winter Soldier”) and devolves into a campy “Hulk smash!” fest. The fact that Mackie puts the thing on his own mighty shoulders (with some help from talented castmates) and keeps it watchable is a minor miracle.
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The film is also not exactly an escape since their fictional world is on metaphorical fire, too. Thaddeus “Thunderbolt” Ross (played by Ford, taking over for the late William Hurt) has just been elected president on a “Togetherness” platform but his hotheaded history and bureaucratic antics to tear the Avengers apart have put him on shaky ground. His first 100 days are almost up, and he desperately needs a multinational treaty to mine a wondrous new element called Adamantium.
Sam Wilson (Mackie) is no fan of Ross but decides being quasi-friendly to the president in power is better than not. He’s invited to the White House for an international summit and Ross wants his help rebuilding the Avengers. But their armistice goes sideways when Sam’s close friend Isaiah Bradley (Carl Lumbly), a Black super-soldier locked up and experimented on by the government for 30 years, is mind-controlled as part of an assassination attempt on Ross.
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There are enough meaty themes going on there to unleash an intelligent, superhero-filled take on real-world political agendas. (Mackie’s “The Falcon and the Winter Soldier” TV show did a better job in that regard.) Sam and his high-flying partner Joaquin Torres (Danny Ramirez) venture out to find the mystery person behind the terrorist attack. But “Brave New World” loses its way by throwing in a litany of subplots including an air-and-sea battle where Captain America has to stave off World War III and a revenge scheme that transforms Ross into an angry Red Hulk.
The new “Captain America” borrows liberally from “Winter Soldier” – if you’re going to ape another Marvel movie, might as well be the best one – but also weaves in story points and characters from “The Eternals” and “The Incredible Hulk.” Unlike earlier standouts, most recent Marvel films are more interested in threading the past to its future than doing something exciting in the present. Cap and Red Hulk pummeling each other and tearing Washington apart during cherry blossom season is fine and all but it doesn’t make for a stellar adventure.
Still, the cast does its part. Ford gives a bit of added depth to the antagonistic Ross before hulking out while Tim Blake Nelson reprises his role as big-brain Samuel Sterns from “Incredible Hulk” in notable fashion. Giancarlo Esposito is wonderfully nasty as mercenary Sidewinder – just him vs. Mackie for two hours would have been a better film – and Shira Haas is sensational as Ruth Bat-Seraph, Ross’ enigmatic Israeli security adviser who was trained by the same deadly folks who unleashed Black Widow.
Then there’s Mackie, the coolest actor Marvel has hired this side of Robert Downey Jr. As excellent as Evans was as Cap, Mackie’s shown equal skill in crafting his own version of what that character should mean – in his case, weathering the pressures and politics of being a national symbol and being as adept with his words as his fists.
Hopefully, next time he’s given a “Captain America” film that doesn’t let him down this hard.
Captain America: Brave New World post-credits scene explained
Get ready for Battleworld!
COURTESY OF MARVEL STUDIOS
Warning: This story contains spoilers for Captain America: Brave New World.
Captain America: Brave New World marks a new beginning for the titular hero, as Anthony Mackie officially takes over the role for his first big screen mission carrying the shield. But he better get comfortable with the vibranium accessory fast because the post-credits scene teases his biggest battle(world) yet — and it’s coming sooner than he realizes.
Director Julius Onah’s brisk spy thriller ends with a win for Sam Wilson (Mackie) as he talks President Thaddeus Ross (Harrison Ford, taking over for the late William Hurt) down from his Red Hulk rage, effectively stopping the revenge plan of Samuel Sterns — a.k.a. the Leader (Tim Blake Nelson) — to wreck Ross’ legacy. While Ross ultimately lands in a cell in the Raft, an isolated supermax prison, he does so voluntarily to save the global treaty regarding the sharing of adamantium. He’s rewarded for his sacrifice with a tearful reunion with his estranged daughter Betty (Liv Tyler, returning for a cameo more than 17 years in the making).
MARVEL
All’s well that ends well, right? Sam certainly thinks so. But when he returns to the Raft in the post-credits scene to gloat to Sterns about beating him, he gets an ominous warning instead.
“You want to know what’s funny?” Sterns asks.
“I’m not in the mood for your jokes,” Sam responds. “You killed a lot of good men trying to get your revenge. Trust me, we don’t share the same sense of humor.”
“We share the same world, don’t we? This world you would die to save,” Sterns says. “It’s coming. I’ve seen it in the probabilities. Seen it plain as day. All you heroes protecting this world, do you think you’re the only ones? Do you think this is the only world? We’ll see what happens when you have to protect this place from the others.”
To casual viewers, this may just seem like the rantings of a madman who’s angry that his plans failed. But for comic book fans — and anyone paying attention to the future slate of Marvel Cinematic Universe films — it’s actually a tease of what’s coming in the next Avengers movies: Avengers: Doomsday and Avengers: Secret Wars.
MARVEL
The multiverse isn’t a new revelation at this point — we’re literally in the middle of the Multiverse Saga, after all — but most of the MCU characters are still unaware of its existence. Sterns is vaguely cluing in Sam to the fact that parallel universes exist — and they’re about to collide with his own. We’ve already seen similar incursions happen in the MCU (in Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and The Marvels), but they’re about to get a lot worse leading up to Secret Wars (based on the 2015 comic by writer Jonathan Hickman and artist Esad Ribic). And you know what else that means?
Battleworld!
In the comics, incursions ultimately destroy the multiverse, leaving only Battleworld, a “patchwork” planet created from pieces of dead universes by Doctor Doom using the power he stole from beings called the Beyonders. The surviving heroes of the multiverse’s collapse are dropped onto the chaotic, ruthless planet that’s always at war, and they must band together to stop Doom (ruling as “God Emperor”) and save the multiverse.
But before we get there, we have to meet more of the main players who will fight in Secret Wars. The Fantastic Four: First Steps hits theaters on July 25, and MCU boss Kevin Feige previously teased, “All those characters go right into our next Avengers movie.” Robert Downey Jr. is returning to the MCU to play Doctor Doom, a.k.a. the new Thanos-level threat, first in Avengers: Doomsday, which is scheduled for May 1, 2026, and finally, Avengers: Secret Wars, arriving May 7, 2027. We might even see characters from Daredevil: Born Again, Thunderbolts*, Ironheart, and Wonder Man show up. There’s room for everyone on Battleworld!
Captain America: Brave New World is playing now in theaters.
