College Basketball Best Bets for Friday, 2/14: St. Louis’ struggles continue at Loyola
NCAAB
It may be Valentine’s Day, but if you’re in love with hoops then there are no days off. I’m sure your valentine will understand.
Friday’s college basketball slate is pretty small. However, there are a few interesting matchups — headlined by a Big Ten showdown between UCLA and Indiana, that will serve as an appetizer for yet another monstrous Saturday card. After this weekend, there are only 3 weekends left in the college basketball regular season — so be sure to enjoy every bit of the hoops action, even the small Friday slates!
Tuesday’s 2-1 result was a profitable one and extended my best bet run to 16-5 since the start of the calendar year. Let’s keep that momentum going with my 2 favorite picks on Friday’s card, and don’t forget to check out Pickswise’s college basketball predictions for the staff’s opinions on the biggest games of the night.
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing.
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These teams played on February 1 at Princeton, where the Tigers won an ugly one 69-49. The total closed around 145 for that matchup, and as you can see, oddsmakers have adjusted the total down about 2 possessions. I don’t think it’s enough. Princeton plays at the slowest pace in the Ivy League with its patented and continuous motion offense, and the Tigers aren’t very consistent on that end of the floor. They have connected on fewer than 43% of their 2-point attempts in conference play, and they get the free throw line at the lowest rate in the league. Defensively, they sit just behind Yale atop the Ivy League in defensive efficiency and two-point defense, in addition to being active in the passing lanes and preventing second-chance points. This defensive pressure is likely to disrupt an inconsistent Brown offense that is outside the top 225 in turnover rate, as well as bottom 2 in the Ivy League in 2-point and free-throw percentage. Playable to 138.5.
The Billikens’ conference schedule has done them no favors, as this will be their sixth straight game against a team in the top half of the Atlantic 10. They come into this matchup with Loyola having lost 4 of their last 6, while struggling to find any sort of offensive consistency. In fact, St. Louis has scored fewer than 75 points in all but 1 game since the start of the new year and it’s not going to get any easier against a gritty Loyola squad that is fifth in defensive momentum and has surpassed defensive expectations in 6 of its last 7 according to Haslametics.
St. Louis’ biggest issue offensively, along with being unable to consistently hit 3s, is its inability to take care of the ball. The Billikens are last in the conference in turnover rate, and the Ramblers tend to punish opponents that continuously make mistakes — boasting a 6-1 SU record against teams outside the top 250 in turnover rate like Saint Louis. The Billikens have a much needed week off after this game, which should do wonders for them considering they have the least amount of depth in the country. However, it may be another ugly outing in Chicago before they get to their break. Playable to -3.
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Friday college basketball best bets
College Basketball Analysis
Princeton Tigers vs Brown Bears Under 140 (-110)
Loyola Chicago Ramblers -2.5 over Saint Louis Billikens (-110)
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Saint Louis vs Loyola Chicago Predictions, Picks, Odds
Credit: Getty Images. Pictured: Saint Louis Billikens F Robbie Avila.
The Saint Louis Billikens take on the Loyola Chicago Ramblers in Chicago, Illinois. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Loyola Chicago is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. The total is set at 141 points.
Here are my Saint Louis vs. Loyola Chicago predictions and college basketball picks for February 14, 2025.
My Saint Louis vs Loyola Chicago best bet is on the Billikens spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
The situational spot screams Billikens.
They’re due for a bounce-back win following back-to-back losses, the latter coming in overtime to red-hot George Mason after the Patriots shot 15-for-33 (46%) from 3.
Meanwhile, it’s a decent sell-high spot on the Ramblers, who have rallied to win three of their past four but are in a good letdown spot following an overtime road win over Richmond.
Schematically, the biggest reason to fade Saint Louis is its ball-handling and rebounding issues. The Billikens can’t grab a board and keep chucking the ball away, so they’re getting obliterated in the shot-volume battle.
Luckily for them, Loyola Chicago is also struggling in the turnover and two-way rebounding departments, so the shot-volume battle shouldn’t be so lopsided.
And it’s not the worst schematic matchup for Saint Louis.
The Billikens’ hub-and-spoke offense revolves around Robbie Avila, the key cog in handoff, rolling and cutting sets. The team leads the A-10 in 2-point shooting at a whopping 64% (per KenPom).
Loyola Chicago boasts an average interior defense, but the Ramblers struggle to defend dribble handoff sets (.89 PPP allowed, 31st percentile, on high volume, per Synergy).
The Ramblers run much of the same dribble handoff and cutting actions, but Saint Louis’ deep drop-coverage defense will likely force Jalen Quinn and Justin Moore into plenty of middle-of-the-floor shot creation.
I’m far from sold on the Billikens’ defense, which I think is vastly overvalued by lucky shooting variance (conference opponents have shot just 27% from 3, per KenPom). But they’re a solid interior defense (46% 2-point shooting allowed in conference play, second in the A-10, per KenPom).
Ultimately, I’m banking on Saint Louis’ two-way efficiency showing up in a good situational spot and in a game in which it won’t be obliterated from a shot-volume perspective.
Pick: Saint Louis +2 or Better
Follow Tanner McGrath @tannerstruth on Twitter/X.
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| Saint Louis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
+2.5
-110
|
141
-110 / -110
|
+120
|
| Loyola Chicago Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
-2.5
-110
|
141
-110 / -110
|
-140
|
Published 9:33 am Friday, February 14, 2025
By Data Skrive
The Saint Louis Billikens and the Loyola Chicago Ramblers take the court in the only game on the college basketball slate on Friday that feature A-10 squads.
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